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Nowe relacje cen w handlu międzynarodowym a kierunki rozwoju eksportu krajów Afryki

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Dudziński J., Narękiewicz J.

International Business and Global Economy

2014

vol. Volume 33

700–711

The 21st century has witnessed new price relations in international trade, which are expressed by amuch more dynamic growth in prices of primary commodities than manufactured goods. It is related, among others, to the increasing role of China in the world’s economy. On the one hand, this country has been dramatically increasing its demand for primary commodities, while on the other hand – it has been dynamically raising its supply of manufactured goods, thus contributing to world-wide relative decreases in price levels. The new price relations also affect the international trade of African countries, accelerating the export of countries rich in resources and food, and increasing the role of these commodities in the total export of the entire continent. As a consequence, China becomes an ever more relevant player in Africa’s export and economy. The aforementioned processes are accompanied, however, by a phenomenon known in the literature as „deindustrialisation of developing economies” reflected in the increasing share of primary commodities in total export. An indirect effect of these tendencies is a more dynamic growth in export and GDP in countries having strong economic relations with China and a less dynamic economic growth of countries related economically and institutionally with more developed countries (particularly the European Union).

Modelling the volatility of African capital markets in the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic: evidence from five emerging economies in Africa

88%

Adeboye N. O., Abimbola O. V., Folorunso S. O., Akinbo R. Y.

Statistics in Transition new series

2023

vol. 24

issue 2

17-37

The growing concern over the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on every aspect of human endeavour has necessitated a continuous modelling of its impact on socio-economic phenomena, allowing the formulation of policies aimed at sustaining future economic growth and mitigating the looming recession. The study employed Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) procedures to develop stock volatility models for the pre- and COVID-19 era. The Fixed-Effects Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) technique was utilised to establish an empirical relationship between capital market volatility and the COVID-19 occurrence based on equity market indices and COVID-19 reported cases of five emerging African economies: Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Gabon and Tanzania. The stock series was made stationary at the first order differencing and the model results indicated that the stock volatility of all the countries responded sharply to the outbreak of COVID-19 with the average stock returns of Nigeria and Gabon suffering the most shocks. The forecast values indicated a constant trend of volatility shocks for all the countries in the continuous presence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the confirmed and death cases of COVID-19 were found to increase stock prices while recovered cases bring about a reduction in the stock prices in the studied periods.

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1 International Business and Global Economy

1 Statistics in Transition new series

1 Abimbola O. V.

1 Adeboye N. O.

1 Akinbo R. Y.

1 Dudziński J.

1 Folorunso S. O.

1 Narękiewicz J.

1 2023

1 2015

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Nowe relacje cen w handlu międzynarodowym a kierunki rozwoju eksportu krajów Afryki

Modelling the volatility of African capital markets in the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic: evidence from five emerging economies in Africa