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IDEAS in AGORA: Decision-Making Risk: The Difference Between Risk And Uncertainity In Economic Activities

100%
Vasilcovschi N., Munteanu G.
Human and Social Studies
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2014
|
vol. 3
|
issue 2
34-46
EN
Economic activities are always supposed to carry with them the risk of market. Our area of research is concerned with what is known as the model of risk decisions at the level of economic activity; a model that can be valuable at any point of economic development. In our research, we present important aspects of risk in taking decisions in the previous and current dynamics of the market. The conditions of taking decisions with potential risks provide decision-makers with the possibility to analyze and calculate risk in order to know what can be gained and lost. In our paper, we present a short description of a different model of risk in economic activity and of decision-making risk, providing examples that have been offered by various authors. For example, Friedman and Savage present the utility function of an economic agent and its availability to accept the risk, while Markowitz defines utility in terms of winning or losing. Our paper starts with a presentation of the quantification of risk in economic activity. In the second part, we present a model of decision-making risk that is applied in economic activities and the difference between risk and uncertainty.
2
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Comparison of asymmetric GARCH models – analysis of the Pioneer Akcji Polskich subfund

100%
Szymoniak-Książek K.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2020
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vol. 393
58-66
EN
The leverage effect is a situation in which volatility tends to increase dramat-ically following bad news, and to increase moderately (or even to diminish) following good news. An example of its occurrence is given. The universality of the leverage effect motivates the further part of the work in which asymmetric GARCH models are de-scribed. In particular, the EGARCH [Nelson, 1991], TGARCH [Zakoian, 1994], GJR- -GARCH [Glotsen, Jagannathan, Runkle, 1993] and APARCH [Ding, Granger, Engle, 1993] models are considered. Models are fit to the daily log-returns series of the Pioneer Akcji Polskich subfund. Parameter estimates are presented. Then a comparison of the considered models is carried out. The BIC criterion [Schwarz, 1978] is used as well as the means of the squared differences between the estimated volatilities.
PL
Efekt dźwigni jest to sytuacja, w której złe informacje powodują gwałtowny wzrost warunkowej zmienności, natomiast dobre informacje prowadzą jedynie do jej nieznacznego wzrostu lub nawet spadku. W opracowaniu podano przykład jego występowania. Powszechność efektu dźwigni motywuje dalszą część pracy, w której zostają opisane asymetryczne modele GARCH. W szczególności są to EGARCH [Nelson, 1991], TGARCH [Zakoian, 1994], GJR-GARCH [Glotsen, Jagannathan, Runkle, 1993] i APARCH [Ding, Granger, Engle, 1993]. Modele zostały dopasowane do dziennych zwrotów logarytmicznych subfunduszu Pioneer Akcji Polskich. W pracy przedstawiono estymowane parametry. Następnie przeprowadzono porównanie rozważanych modeli. Wykorzystano do tego kryterium BIC [Schwarz, 1978], jak również średniokwadratowe różnice pomiędzy estymowanymi warunkowymi zmiennościami.
3
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The U. S. – Taiwan and the U. S. – Poland Non-Confrontational Asymmetry: A Comparative Analysis

94%
Ostaszewski P.
Studia z Polityki Publicznej
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2016
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vol. 3
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issue 4(12)
227-243
PL
Artykuł dotyczy porównania dwóch przypadków niekonfrontacyjnej asymetrii w stosunkach międzynarodowych: między Tajwanem a Stanami Zjednoczonymi oraz między Polską a Stanami Zjednoczonymi. Autor bada różnice i elementy wspólne obu sytuacji. Wynik stanowi podstawę do badań porównawczych dotyczących nie tylko międzynarodowej sytuacji Tajpej i Warszawy, ale także wprowadzenie do porównawczych podejść dotyczących wydarzeń politycznych w Europie Wschodniej i Azji Wschodniej.
EN
The article concerns the comparison of two cases of non-confrontational asymmetry in international relations: between Taiwan and the United States and between Poland and the United States. The author explores the differences and the common elements of both situations. The outcome provides a background for comparative studies concerning not only the international situation of Taipei and Warsaw, but also an introduction to comparative approaches concerning political developments in Eastern Europe and East Asia.
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