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PL
Brazylia ostatnich latach zanotowała ogromny wzrost gospodarczy. Stała się tym samym przedmiotem obserwacji nie tylko inwestorów, ale również polityków z całego świata. Ogromne i pozytywne zmiany związane są z prezydenturą Luiza Inácio Luli da Silvy, który w 2002 roku objął urząd prezydencki. Jego następczyni Dilma Rousseff, która po dwóch kadencjach Luli przejęła władzę w Brazylii, kontynuuje politykę swojego poprzednika. O Brazylii coraz częściej mówi się jako o wzrastającym gigancie międzynarodowym. Warto zwrócić uwagę na to co wpłynęło na taki wzrost gospodarczy oraz czy zmiany, które zaszły w Brazylii były skutkiem działań rządu Luli oraz Dilmy. Zastanowić się można również czy sytuacja gospodarcza w Brazylii oraz aktywność polityczna w kraju i za granicą są wystarczające by określić Brazylię mianem giganta na arenie międzynarodowej.
EN
Brazil in the recent years have undergone a substantial economic growth. It has attracted attention of the investors and politicians from all over the world. Profound positive changes are connected with the presidency of Luiz Inácio Luli da Silvy (since 2002). His policy is continued by his successor, Dilma Rousseff. Brazil is more and more often called a rising international giant. It is worth considering the factors that influenced such economic growth, and the role of the government in the process. This paper will also address the question if Brazil can be called an international giant, based on three factors: its economic growth and its internal as well as external activity on the international arena.
PL
Wyraźne zmiany w geografii światowej gospodarki, jakie dokonały się w pierwszej dekadzie XXI wieku pod wpływem wzrostu znaczenia krajów BRIC, w niewielkim tylko stopniu znalazły odzwierciedlenie w eksporcie krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej (EŚW). Największe gospodarki rozwijające się, prócz Rosji, wciąż praktycznie pozostają raczej egzotycznymi rynkami dla eksporterów z regionu EŚW. Udział Chin, Indii i Brazylii w eksporcie EŚW w 2011 r. wyniósł zaledwie 1,8%. Analiza zmian struktury geograficznej eksportu krajów EŚW w ostatnich latach wskazuje, że głównym celem przenoszenia produkcji do EŚW przez firmy z Europy Zachodniej było zwiększanie eksportu (dzięki poprawie konkurencyjności cenowej) na najbliższe geograficznie rynki, przede wszystkim UE-15 oraz Rosji i innych krajów b. ZSRR. Innymi słowy, kraje te stanowiły platformę eksportową dla korporacji międzynarodowych. Taka struktura geograficzna eksportu wynika, z faktu iż większość filii przedsiębiorstw zagranicznych w krajach EŚW specjalizuje się w produkcji i eksporcie wyrobów o stosunkowo mało zindywidualizowanych cechach, przeznaczonych na niższe segmenty rynku, podczas gdy produkcja towarów charakteryzujących się wyższą jakością (i jednocześnie ceną), pozostawiana jest najczęściej w krajach macierzystych.
EN
Pronounced changes in the geography of the world economy that have occurred during the first decade of the twenty-first century, under the influence of the spectacular rise of the BRIC countries, were only slightly reflected in the exports of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries. The largest developing economies, except Russia, still virtually remain rather exotic markets for exporters from the CEE region. These countries represent only a narrow margin in the CEE exports. In 2011, the share of China, India and Brazil in exports of countries in the region accounted for only 1.8%. An analysis of changes in the geographical structure of the CEE's exports that have taken place in recent years indicates that the main purpose of shifting production from Western Europe to the CEE companies was to increase exports (by raising the price competitiveness) to the closest geographically markets, especially to the EU-15 and Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. This geographical pattern of exports results from the fact that most affiliates of foreign companies in CEEs specialise in the manufacture and exports of products with relatively few features, targeted for the lower segments of the market, while the production of goods of higher quality (and also price) has mostly remained in their home countries.
EN
The emerging markets are slowly opening up their respective financial markets to foreign investments, thereby making the latter markets more sensitive to cross-market information transmissions. There are different transmission mechanisms ranging from trade related to financial linkages. However, statistically, both price discovery and conditional volatility act as transmission mechanisms, whereby information in one stock market has an impact on another. In this regard, the present study attempts to empirically analyse the impact of global information transmissions, i.e., stock market returns and conditional volatility on overall Indian financial stress and its various sub-components by employing different econometric models comprising Johanson Cointegration, Vector Autoregression and its various counterparts, Component GARCH (1,1) model and multivariate OLS regression models ranging from October 2003 to October 2014. The study firstly constructed Indian financial stress index owing to non-existence of a standardised index. The results reported that the one month lagged returns in the BRIC stock markets have an impact on the financial stress index of India. The stress in the Indian financial system responds statistically signifi cantly to the Brazilian and Chinese market returns, with a greater degree of integration after two months. A statistically signifi cant impact of the shortrun volatility has also been observed running from the European markets to the Indian financial system contemporaneously. Furthermore, unexpected volatility in the BRIC markets also has an impact on the Indian financial stress contemporaneously as well as dynamically. The present study provides an insight to the international investors regarding the response of Indian financial system and its sub-components toward global information transmissions.
EN
Modern Brazil deserves more international focus due to its new-found political and economic stability. Not only is it described as an emerging power, but it is included into BRIC countries. The international success of Brazil stems from, among others, the fruitful presidency of Lula, the discovery of new vast “pre-salt” oil fields in the deep waters, the involvement in the regional projects and the efficient strategies of emerging from the world economic recession. The article gives a general overview of the politics of president Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva in the last years of his governance in Brazil (2003–2010), as well as presents the strategies of present internal, defence and foreign policies of Latin-American emerging giant. All the steps being taken prove that contemporary Brazil is taking its place on the international stage once more, being ready to make its mark.
EN
The efficient market theory is one of the most controversial economic theories of the last half-century. The market efficiency has been topic of various studies, but the results are mixed. Although some of the studies confirmed efficiency of a market, another studies often rejected it. As a result, the adaptive market hypothesis was formulated. It says that the ability of share prices to reflect all the available information changes over time. This paper analyses the development of weak-form market efficiency of BRIC share markets. It shows that although the BRIC share markets are weak-form inefficient in the long-term, there are some shorter time periods of weak-form efficiency that alternate with periods of weak-form inefficiency. It means that technical and fundamental analysis can be used on BRIC share markets to generate returns superior to returns of the market portfolio.
PL
Esej omawia program modernizacji Rosji rozpoczęty przez Dmitrija Miedwiediewa w 2009 roku, w kontekście dotychczasowych prób unowocześnienia Rosji. Przeanalizowane zostały bariery gospodarcze, polityczne i społeczne z jakimi muszą zmierzyć się rosyjscy politycy. Autor przedstawia zagadnienie odwołując się do przykładów o charakterze historycznym a także doświadczenia w reformowaniu gospodarki w pozostałych krajach BRICS. Przeprowadzona analiza prowadzi do wniosków, iż Rosja to „najbardziej nietypowy aktor” w tym klubie.
EN
The paper concerns the process of Russia modernization, implemented by Dmitry Medvedev in 2009, putting it in the context of the previous attempts at Russia modernization. I perform an analysis of the economical, political and social barriers faced by Russian politicians, supplemented by the references to historical examples and the experience of the modernization of the economy in other BRIC countries. The analysis leads to the conclusion that Russia is “the most uncharacteristic actor” in the club.
PL
Kraje BRIC, tj. Brazylia, Rosja, Indie oraz Chiny to podmioty gospodarki światowej, których rola i znaczenie w gospodarce światowej XXI w. dynamicznie rosną. Zaobserwować można zwłaszcza coraz większe zaangażowanie tych gospodarek w międzynarodowe przepływy towarowe. Celem artykułu jest analiza i ocena intensywności oraz znaczenia powiązań handlowych Polski z Brazylią, Rosją, Indiami oraz Chinami. Pokazano eksport Polski do krajów BRIC oraz import Polski z krajów BRIC na tle globalnych obrotów towarowych Polski. Scharakteryzowano strukturę towarową handlu Polski z Brazylią, Rosją, Indiami oraz Chinami. Badania prowadzono w oparciu o dane Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego. Analizowano okres od 2005 do 2013 r., tam, gdzie to było możliwe, uwzględniono także rok 2001.
EN
BRIC group consists of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The role and position of the above mentioned economies has been growing since the beginning of the 21st century. One can observe significant increase in their engagement in international merchandise trade. An attempt was made in the paper to analyse and evaluate Poland’s trade relations with Brazil, Russia, India and China. Both Polish-BRIC exports and imports were shown against the background of total Poland’s merchandise trade with the world. Commodity pattern of Poland’s trade with Brazil, Russia, India and China was presented. Central Statistical Office data were used for the research. The analysis was undertaken for the period 2005-2013; in some cases the year 2001 was also included in the analysis.
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