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Zastosowania analizy harmonicznej i spektralnej oraz analizy przeskalowanego zakresu w badaniu realnych cykli koniunkturalnych

100%
Łuczyński W.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
|
vol. 64
31-50
EN
In empirical verification of the concept of real business cycle use is made of advanced analytical tools, such as harmonic and spectral analyses, unitary root tests, or rescaled range analysis. In this study attempt is made to apply the same tools in research on cyclical developments in the Polish economy, as reflected by various indicators of business activity. These include qualitative indices of business climate in manufacturing from CSO business surveys, several quantitative indicators from macroeconomic statistics and share price indices from Warsaw stock exchange. The results of investigation suggest the existence of relatively short cycles of 3 to 4 years or less in the dynamics of the Polish economy.
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