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EN
This paper develops a model to analyse economic performance under different political regimes. An 'oligarchic' society, where political power is in the hands of major producers, protects those producers' property rights, but also tends to erect significant entry barriers for new entrepreneurs. Democracy, where political power is more widely diffused, imposes redistributive taxes on producers, but tends to avoid entry barriers. While taxes in a democracy are high and distortions caused by entry barriers low, an oligarchic society achieves greater efficiency. But because comparative advantage in entrepreneurship shifts away from the incumbents, the inefficiency created by entry barriers in an oligarchy deteriorates over time. The typical pattern is one of rise and decline of oligarchic societies: an oligarchic society may first become richer, but will later fall behind a similar democratic society. The author also discusses how democracies may be better able to take advantage of new technologies, how intra-elite conflict in oligarchies may cause a transition to democracy, and how unequal income distribution may keep inefficient oligarchic institutions in place.
EN
The author previously applied the outlook and methodology he named the system paradigm to analysing the socialist system and post-socialist transition. This study takes the same approach to some general attributes of capitalism. After clarifying some concepts, the author presents examples of some system-specific features of capitalism, before addressing two of them in detail. One is the dynamism of the system. The great innovations of the last century that radically altered both the technology of production and people's daily lives were all introduced and disseminated by the capitalist system and its protagonist, the entrepreneur. Only under capitalism can the mechanism of entrepreneurship and innovation emerge, with the strong incentives and flexible capital market they require. The other immanent feature is a chronic surplus on the labour market that contrasts sharply with the chronic labour shortage prevalent under the mature socialist system. Theory and experience confirm that the faster the ongoing transformation of a capitalist economy proceeds, the greater the propensity for structural unemployment to appear. It is explained by the efficiency pay hypothesis how an employer has an incentive to pay more than a market-clearing wage, thereby introducing unemployment. Capitalism is a system that can be reformed, but attention needs paying to relations between reforms of different parts of the system. In fortunate cases they complement each other, but it is commoner to find that tackling one unfavourable tendency only allows another such tendency to increase.
EN
Hungary, once the best-performing socialist country and a leader in the 1990s, now has a rate of economic growth slower than that of the other countries in the region. The present overweight, overspending state and the returning disequilibria derive from the softer dictatorship of the Kádár period, which instated a 'quasi-welfare state' to boost its legitimacy. Maintaining this on a macro level has softened the country's budget constraint and led to indebtedness. This uncovered 'welfare policy' has survived in a mutant form under democratic conditions and become one of the main causes of today's woes. While the micro-level budget constraints of companies have hardened, soft democracy has allowed the macroeconomic budget constraint on the state to remain soft. The two Hungarian characteristics of a state overweight for decades and the continuity of the process of systemic change have between them turned Hungary into a textbook example of the decline of a society ruled by Olson interest groups.
EN
A faulty sphere of systems developed in Hungary under socialism and after the change of system, not irrespectively of each other. The socialism imposed by the Hungarian state was too 'market', too 'capitalist', but Hungarian capitalism has proved too 'state', too 'socialist' in the criteria of the ruling system. Instead of spontaneous order, as outlined by Hayek, the essence of Hungary's new system has become 'bureaucratic disorder'. As institutions developed and influenced each other, the leading 'mutant' mix was a self-generating process that prevents the advantages of the new system from developing. The situation is similar in the relation between rapidly developed formal institutions and social awareness, which is rapidly become paternalistic. The informal institutions often impede operation of the formal ones.
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