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EN
This paper shows that traditional mean-variance portfolio choice, which is a fundamental CAPM assumption, oversimplifies the theory and neglects the relationship between real and security markets. This could also be the primary reason for why the model is so hard to prove using empirical tests. However, the von Neumann-Morgenstern quadratic utility function makes it possible to derive the CAPM from equilibrium in real markets. This is explored in the paper using a two-period finance economy model.
EN
The most common model for asset pricing (CAPM) is problematic and does not match the reality. In this article, I introduce a theoretical framework for a new model which aims at avoiding the problems of CAPM and keeping its advantages, therefore allowing universality of asset pricing. The model is built on the economic principles, using a budget constraint and a Risk Appetite (RA) function. It is based on the micro-economic decision model, involving an expected value and dividing a stock price to objective and subjective prices. As a result, rational based individuals, just like individuals with non-rational factors, may use the model to calculate a future price stock in exactly the same way.
EN
The capital markets of neighboring transitional Western Balkan countries have attracted a lot of interest from domestic and international investors in the last decade, who view them as an attractive alternative to investing in more developed markets. These markets are characterized by higher returns, and higher volatility of stock returns as compared to those of developed markets. The recent economic and financial crises devastated capital markets worldwide. The new Bosnian capital market faced its hardest times following the withdrawal of international investors. The aim of this paper is to explore whether there is a standard relation between stock returns and market portfolio returns, as proposed by the Sharpe-Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), in the stock market of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We tested the model hypotheses with a traditional two-stage regression procedure using the OLS method, using continuously compounded (logarithmic) returns on stocks. Our study indicates that despite the crisis the systematic risk measured by the beta coefficient is priced and that the beta premium is positive. Nevertheless, the Security Market Line (SML) intercepts the ordinate lower than the risk free rate of return. Other factors might also influence stock returns in this market.
EN
The article sheds light on the estimation of the cost of equity capital on a developing equity market. The cost of equity is important; it is crucial in capital budgeting decisions and performance evaluation. It determines the minimum yield the investors require on the invested capital and we use it as a discount rate to calculate the present value of the expected free cash flows to equity. The aim of this paper is to tackle the estimation of the cost of equity capital on developing markets with the example of estimation for ten Slovene publicly traded companies. The estimated cost of capital for the selected Slovene companies is between 9,7% and 13,7%.
EN
Cost of capital is the key parameter when evaluating company's financial performance and valuing a firm or a project. The cost of equity calculation methods most commonly used in practice, are based on market data. When such a data is not available, classical methods used to determine required rate of return on equity capital are substituted with techniques based on accounting data. One of these techniques is multidimensional comparative analysis. This text shows an attempt to assess quasi-beta indices using multidimensional comparative analysis. Using five financial ratios calculated for companies from Warsaw Stock Exchange indices WIG20, mWIG40 and sWIG80, risk coefficients were determined as taxonomic measures of development, and then they were compared to traditional beta indices. The final results are promising – the highest values of quasi-beta indices are assigned to companies that are characterized by equally high values of beta coefficients (characterized by high volatility of stock returns compared to volatility of broad market returns).
Oeconomia Copernicana
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2015
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vol. 6
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issue 4
123-138
EN
In the work, the subject of the discount rate assessment is presented. The discount rate is usually considered as constant in the whole investment period, which seems to be the main problem. The constant discount rate does not take into account the actual money loses value in time. Moreover, the discount rate elements can change in time, and it should be remembered that many factors, which could also change, influence the value of those elements. The research confirms that the assumption of using the constant discount rate is erroneous. In the work one can find i.a. the methods of own capital assessment or the proposal of different techniques of risk premium valuation.
PL
Współczynnik beta jest jednym z najpopularniejszych wskaźników stosowanych przez inwestorów, jednak niewielu z nich zadaje sobie trud by dokładnie przeanalizować jego charakterystykę zadawalając się danymi dostępnym w wyspecjalizowanych bazach. Powstaje pytanie, czy inwestorzy słusznie ignorują dokładną metodologię wyliczania bety, czy różnice jakie mogą się pojawić w związku z efektem ARCH i brakiem rozkładu normalnego przy danych finansowych mają znaczenie praktyczne. W artykule autor postanowił przetestować współczynnik beta obliczany klasyczną metodą MNK – beta bezwarunkowa i metoda GARCH (1,1) – beta warunkowa. Porównanie otrzymanych wyników pozwoliło na pewne refleksje związane z naturą inwestorów, ale także pozwoliło zbliżyć się do odpowiedzi, czy różnice w wyznaczonych współczynnikach mają jakieś znaczenie. Wyniki przeprowadzonych badań wydają się sugerować, że zbytnie przywiązywanie wagi do wymogów formalnych nie ma znaczenia dla przeciętnego inwestora, a dla powodzenia inwestycji najważniejsze jest określenie „rzędu” wielkości bety, nie jej dokładnej wartości. The beta ratio is one of the most popular indicators used by investors. However, few of them bothers to carefully examine its characteristics, and most of them just take the data available in specialized databases. The question is whether investors are right to ignore the exact methodology for calculating beta, or differences which may arise in connection with the ARCH effect and the lack of a normal distribution with financial data have practical significance. In the article, the author decided to test a beta calculated using classical method of least squares and GARCH (1,1) method. Comparison of the results led to some of the reflections of the nature of the investors, but also made it possible to get closer to the answer whether differences in designated coefficients are some important. The results of the study seem to suggest that too much importance attached to the formal requirements does not matter to the average investor, and for the success of the investment is enough to determine the approximate value of beta, not its exact value.
EN
Theoretical background: The variability of the company’s profitability is the result of the accompanying risk. To compare the profitability of many companies, relative profitability measures, which include profitability ratios, are more convenient. This article analyses market and accounting risk factors of CAPM. Risk was considered in variance and downside framework. Market betas, accounting betas were used in an extended version of the asset pricing model. Additionally, the influence of profitability ratios, such as ROA and ROE on the average rate of return on the capital market are considered.Purpose of the article: The main purpose of this study is to test the standard and extended CAPM relations between systematic risk measures and mean returns for single companies quoted on the Polish capital market and equally-weighted portfolios in two approaches: variance and downside risk.Research methods: The research based on individual securities and portfolios, compares the one-factor risk-return relationships with two-factor ones estimated using mean returns in cross-sectional regressions. The regressors were expressed in absolute terms and classical and downside beta coefficients. The sample includes companies differing in terms of size and across different industries.Main findings: Portfolios with higher classical or downside market betas generate higher mean returns. The negative risk premium for accounting betas for variance and downside risk was identified. It is not in accordance with our earlier study of the Polish construction sector, where a positive and significant risk premium for downside accounting betas was found. The highest explanatory power of rates on returns on the Polish capital market were found for average ROA and ROE. This confirms the results of the previous studies on the Polish capital market for food and construction sectors.
PL
Hipoteza rynku adaptacyjnego (adaptive market hypothesis – AMH), której autorem jest A. Lo, to jeden z najnowszych modeli opisujących działanie rynków finansowych. AMH stanowi rozwinięcie hipotezy rynku efektywnego (efficient market hypothesis – EMH), która pozwala na połączenie EMH z wnioskami wynikającymi z finansów behawioralnych. W artykule przedstawione zostały główne założenia, wnioski oraz badania empiryczne dotyczące AMH. Celem artykułu jest empiryczna weryfikacja wybranych wniosków wynikających z hipotezy rynku adaptacyjnego w warunkach polskiego rynku. Analizie poddano wnioski dotyczące istnienia relacji pomiędzy zyskiem a ryzykiem oraz skuteczności strategii inwestycyjnych. Zgodnie z AMH inwestorzy oczekują wyższych stóp zwrotu, gdy podejmują większe ryzyko, wymagana premia za ryzyko nie jest jednak stała w czasie. Drugi wniosek dotyczy tego, że skuteczność strategii inwestycyjnych zależna jest od miejsca i czasu ich zastosowania. Badania zostały przeprowadzone na przykładzie spółki KGHM Polska Miedź SA, indeksu WIG oraz DAX. Wniosek pierwszy został sprawdzony za pomocą modelu wyceny aktywów kapitałowych, natomiast wniosek drugi z wykorzystaniem strategii inwestycyjnej opartej na tzw. efekcie stycznia. Oba wnioski okazały się poprawne.
EN
The article presents a model describing the operation of financial markets – the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH), created by Andrew Lo. AMH builds on the theory of efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which allows one to connect EMH with conclusions from behavioral finance. The study examines the conclusions of AMH about the existence of the unstable relationship between return and risk, and the time-dependent efficiency of investment strategies. The conclusions’ verification is based on the example of KGHM Polska Miedź SA, the WIG index and the DAX index. The first conclusion was tested by using the capital asset pricing model, while the second conclusion was verified using an investment strategy based on the “January effect”. As the results show, both applications proved correct.
EN
The classical approach to the SML assumes that it is a straight line, which means that an investor is willing to accept lower return on the negative beta assets than on the risk-free assets. However, Cloninger, Waller, Bendeck and Revere (2004) challenged this commonly accepted approach. The author of the paper decided to verify the approach using empirical data for years 1999-2006 obtained from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Finance theoreticians believe that the SML is linear, which means that an investor buying negative beta assets is willing to accept lower return than in the case of a risk-free asset. Cloninger et al. (2004) formulated a hypothesis stating that the SML is V-shaped and that it is not a straight line. It was concluded that an investor had no reason to accept lower return of the negative beta assets; quite the contrary, the investor would expect the same return as on the positive beta ones. The author of this article performed an investigation for the Polish market, taking advantage of companies quoted at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The investigation demonstrated that between 1999 and 2006, the SML had a V-like shape and thus the research hypothesis formulated in the article was positively verified.
EN
The purpose of the article is to analyse the impact of various financial ratios used to evaluate a company’s liquidity and solvency on the rates of return on the shares of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In the context of developing countries, the relationship between liquidity and solvency on the one hand and the return on equity on the other is still not clear. Poland is the most economically developed country in Central and Eastern Europe. A thorough analysis is necessary to take appropriate action and introduce adequate regulations in the country, as well as to create the foundation for researching other economies in this region. In addition, this article includes new estimators that have not yet been taken into account but that may affect the rates of return, which will contribute to the literature on the subject and to the development of knowledge on the volatility of returns on shares. In the study, we have calculated the time-varying beta coefficients of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model and analysed portfolios based on three liquidity ratios and four solvency ratios, which were computed using the CAPM, Fama–French and Carhart models. The empirical study described in the article focuses on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period from 1 January 1999 to 30 June 2013. Regressions were estimated by the least-squares method and by quantile regression. Based on the results, it was found that listed companies at risk of bankruptcy are able to meet their short-term liabilities. Liquidity and solvency measured by financial ratios significantly affect the sensitivity of the rate of return on shares to the risk factors expressed in the CAPM, Fama––French and Carhart models.
EN
Since the 1970s numerous papers have presented the results of analyses conducted on western capital markets. They have provided a great deal of evidence that CAPM is not able to deliver valuable predictions about future stock returns. That is why so many attempts have been made to develop a better pricing model, one of which is Fama and French’s three-factor model. This article analyses the extent to which this model can predict stock returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (the WSE). The analysis shows that the three-factor model does not deliver accurate predictions because it does not take into account all the essential factors that determine returns on the WSE. Further surveys should be conducted to identify these factors.
EN
The application of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is a mean-variance technique, requires the distribution of stock returns to be symmetric. Securities traded on many emerging capital markets, including the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), usually do not have such a feature. In these cases, methods of risk evaluation based on semivariance seem to be superior to those based on total variance. Since the ratio of companies having asymmetric stock return distributions is still high (although it is declining each year, proving that the Polish market is becoming increasingly mature year after year), methods based on semivariance (three versions of downside Capital Asset Pricing Model) are used to assess investment risk. The outcomes obtained conclude that the best results for assessing the risk of negative deviations in rate of returns on the Polish capital market is provided by the Bawa and Lindenberg model.
EN
This paper provides a performance analysis of vice and virtue stocks in the Eurozone for the period between January 2005 and December 2014. In order to do so, a vice index consisting of listed Eurozone companies operating in selected vice industries is created and subsequently matched with a corresponding virtue index, which for the purpose of this analysis is represented by the DJSI Eurozone. The tools used to conduct the performance evaluation are the Sharpe ratio, the capital asset pricing model and the Carhart four-factor model. The analysis indicates no consistent outperformance or underperformance of one or the other index, yet the realised performance over the whole period favours the vice index. Consequently, it can be concluded that from a statistical point of view, there is no substantial advantage or disadvantage in being “good” when investing into stocks, as such it is a matter of investor preference, with the note that historical returns do favour vice stocks.
EN
This paper provides a performance analysis of vice and virtue stocks in the Eurozone for the period between January 2005 and December 2014. In order to do so, a vice index is created consisting out of listed Eurozone companies, operating in selected vice industries and is subsequently matched with a corresponding virtue index, which for the purpose of this analysis is represented by the DJSI Eurzone. The tools used to conduct the performance evaluation are the Sharpe ratio, the Capital asset pricing model and the Carhart’s four-factor model. The analysis indicates, no consistent out- or under- performance of one or the other index, yet the realized performance over the whole period favours the vice index. Consequently one can conclude, that from a statistical point of view, there is no substantial advantage or disadvantage in being “good” when investing into stocks, as such it is a matter of investor preference, with the note that historical returns do favour vice stocks.
PL
Celem artykułu jest porównanie długookresowych zależności w poziomie branżowego ryzyka systematycznego, mierzonego współczynnikiem beta, na polskim i niemieckim rynku giełdowym. Poziom ryzyka został oszacowany dla pięciu sektorów polskich i trzech niemieckich na podstawie modelu CAPM z wykorzystaniem metody bayesowskiej w okresie 2001–2020. Cele szczegółowe artykułu to rozwinięcie i udoskonalenie nowego podejścia bayesowkiego (model SBETA) do szacowania poziomu ryzyka i porównanie wielkości współczynnika beta zmiennego w czasie na obu rynkach wraz z prostą rekomendacją inwestycyjną, tj. sektor agresywny lub defensywny. Wyniki wskazują, że współczynniki beta niemieckich sektorów miały niższy poziom persystencji, co jest charakterystyczne dla rynków rozwiniętych. Sektor bankowy okazał się najbardziej agresywny, najwyższy poziom bety, zarówno na polskim i niemieckim rynku giełdowym. Polskie indeksy sektorowe budownictwo, IT, artykuły spożywcze i telekomunikacja zostały zakwalifikowane do defensywnych. Niemieckie indeksy, Technologiczny (IT) został zakwalifikowany do agresywnych ale telekomunikacja do defensywnych. Na podstawie obliczeń wskazano, że polski sektor bankowy i niemiecki technologiczny przyniosły wyższe dochody niż cały rynek w analizowanym okresie. Wyniki mają bardzo duże znaczenie dla oceny poziomu ryzyka systematycznego na polskiej i niemieckiej giełdzie papierów wartościowych i dają jasne rekomendacje inwestorom międzynarodowym.
EN
This paper examines the long‑term dependence between the Polish and German stock markets in terms of industry beta risk estimates according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The main objective of this research is to compare the Polish and German beta parameters of five Polish and three German sector indices using the Bayesian methodology in the period 2001–2020. The study has two detailed aims. First, to develop a modified, Bayesian approach (SBETA model) that generates significantly more precise beta than the traditional model. Second, to compare the results of different time‑varying industry betas in the Polish and German economies, giving a simple investment recommendation, i.e., which sector could be classified as aggressive or defensive. The betas were time‑varying in both markets but less persistent in the German industries, which seems characteristic of an advanced economy. The Banking sector betas were the highest in both markets, implying the aggressive nature of that industry in the last twenty years. For the Polish market industry, the betas of Construction, IT, Food and Drinks, and Telecom were classified as defensive. For the German economy, the Technologies (IT) sector was also classified as aggressive, but Telecom was defensive. The results give a valuable insight into the systematic risk levels in Poland and Germany, reflecting the investors' learning process and indicating that Polish Banking and German technologies outperformed the market in the last twenty years.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono problematykę wyceny aktywów finansowych za pomocą modelu CAPM (capital asset pricing model). W części teoretycznej zaprezentowano opis założeń i wniosków wynikających z zastosowania modelu CAPM, a także modyfikację modelu polegającą na zastąpieniu instrumentu wolnego od ryzyka portfelem aktywów zero-beta. W części empirycznej skupiono się na badaniach skuteczności modelu CAPM. Przedstawiono badania, które zaprzeczają wnioskom wynikającym z modelu, jak i potwierdzają ich słuszność. Ponadto przeprowadzono weryfikację modelu uwzględniającego portfel aktywów zero-beta na polskim rynku kapitałowym z wykorzystaniem współczynnika korelacji. W pracy portfel aktywów zero-beta został utworzony z kontraktów terminowych na WIG20 oraz z jednostek Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor. Portfel ten, jak wynika z badań, może stanowić odpowiednią metodę szacowania wolnej od ryzyka stopy procentowej. Badania nad skutecznością wyceny zostały przeprowadzone na podstawie danych dwóch spółek – KGHM Polska Miedź SA oraz Próchnik SA. Rezultaty badań wskazują, że w większości przypadków zmienność stóp zwrotu spółek jest większa niż ta wynikająca z modelu CAPM.
EN
The article describes the issue of capital asset pricing using Capital Assets Pricing Models (CAPM). The theoretical section presents the assumptions, zero-beta portfolio modification and results of using CAPM. The empirical part focuses on studies of the effectiveness of the CAPM model. Empirical tests are given, providing evidence that both denies and confirms the findings of the CAPM model, while the correlation coefficient is used to verify the model on the Polish capital market. The zero-beta portfolio was created based on futures contracts on WIG20 and units of the Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor. As indicated by the results, this portfolio may be an appropriate method for estimating the risk-free interest rate. Research on the effectiveness of the valuation was carried out on the basis of two companies: KGHM Polska Miedź SA and Próchnik SA. The results of the study show that in most cases the variability of the companies’ returns is greater than that resulting from the CAPM model.
PL
Na początku 2021 r. kapitalizacja rynku kryptoaktywów przekroczyła 1,5 bln USD, a na świecie funkcjonowało ponad 300 giełd, na których można było handlować ponad 8 tys. tokenów. W ramach badań związanych z dojrzałymi segmentami rynku finansowego (np. rynek akcji w Stanach Zjednoczonych) naukowcy i praktycy od kilkudziesięciu lat starają się zidentyfikować kluczowe czynniki ryzyka, dzięki którym możliwe jest wyjaśnienie premii za ryzyko kapitałowe inwestycji w daną klasę aktywów. W ostatnich latach wzrasta liczba badaczy próbujących zidentyfikować te czynniki dla kryptoaktywów. Celem niniejszego artykułu była analiza popularnych indeksów kryptoaktywów i zidentyfikowanie tych, które mogą być wykorzystane jako proxy portfela rynkowego do oszacowania wspomnianej premii za czynniki ryzyka. Wyniki badań wskazują, że czynnik ryzyka rynkowego jest istotnym elementem badanego rynku, a indeksami, które najlepiej go odzwierciedlają, są indeks składający się ze wszystkich kryptoaktywów ważonych kapitalizacją oraz Coin100, który zawiera tylko 100 największych kryptoaktywów.
EN
In early 2021, the cryptoasset market capitalization exceeded $1.5 trillion, and there were more than 300 exchanges in the world where over 8,000 tokens could be traded. As part of research related to mature segments of the financial market (e.g. the stock market in the United States), scientists and practitioners have been trying to identify key risk factors for several decades, thanks to which it is possible to explain the equity risk premium for an investment in a given asset class. In recent years, there have been an increasing number of researchers trying to identify these factors for cryptoassets. The aim of this article was to analyse popular cryptoasset indices in order to identify those that can be used as a proxy of the market portfolio in order to estimate this risk factor premium. The research results indicate that the market risk factor is an important element of the market under study, and the indices that best reflect it are an index consisting of all cryptoassets weighted by capitalization and Coin100 which contains only the 100 largest cryptoassets.
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