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EN
Risk is an intrinsic attribute that is existent in virtually all fields of human endeavour. The financial environment has turned out to be extremely precarious, unstable and unpredictable by dint of defective risk management practice. In giving out credit, Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) take the risk of the loan or advances (LAD) being fully or partially lost, or of the interest-income accrued not eventually materialising. The review of empirical literature revealed a plethora of approaches to measuring the credit risks facing financial institutions. They showed that the management of risks has a positive impact on profitability. Concentrating on deposit money banks in Nigeria and using Zenith Bank Plc as a case study, the objective of this study is to show in simple terms that risks can be represented by the LAD and the loan loss provision (LLP) made by DMBs, just as performance can be measured by the return on equity (ROE), while total assets (TAS) are included as the control variable. Using data extracted from the financial statements from 2002 to 2017 (16 years), it was established, by means of descriptive statistics and regression analysis, that loan loss provision does not exert a significant impact on profitability.
EN
This study examines the impact credit risk management has on the profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria. The main objective of this material is to show how credit risk parameters are related to the expected performance of commercial banks in Nigeria. Using the regression analysis, relationship was drawn between credit risk parameters (which include capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loan ratio) and the profitability ratio (return on average asset, in particular) of five big Nigerian banks. Mixed research methodology was adopted in that primary data were sourced via questionnaires and secondary data were used via annual report of selected banks. Regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The conclusion drawn from the data analysis shows that there is a strong relationship between credit risk parameters and returns of the bank implying that credit risk management has a strong impact on the profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria. The study recommends that banks’ capital should be matched with their total risk exposure and if there is an imbalance, new capital requirements are necessary. Insider-related interests in loan applications should be closely monitored by the regulators to ensure continuous performance of the loan facility. Also, there should be an extant profiling of loan defaulters whether individuals or corporate entities.
PL
Obecnie funkcjonują dwie główne metody szacowania minimalnego wymogu kapitałowego z tytułu ryzyka kredytowego, określane jako: "metoda standardowa" oraz "metoda wewnętrznych ratingów". Metody te różnią się między sobą zarówno założeniami, jak i złożonością modelu formalnego. Konstrukcja metody standardowej (Standard Approach) jest prosta, intuicyjna, a w efekcie nie wymaga szczegółowych wyjaśnień. Inaczej postrzegana jest metoda IRB (Internal Rating Based Approach). Opiera się ona na skomplikowanej formule matematycznej, której założenia są zrozumiałe jedynie dla bardzo wąskiego grona osób. Najbardziej powszechną praktyką w przypadku IRB jest bierne stosowanie narzuconych przez regulacje formuł, bez wnikania w ich sens ekonomiczno-statystyczny. Celem niniejszego opracowania jest próba wyjaśnienia podstawowych założeń ramowej formuły IRB. Wyjaśnienie to zostało w maksymalnym stopniu uproszczone. Miejsce szczegółowych wywodów matematyczno-statystycznych zajmują wyjaśnienia intuicyjne, odwołujące się do typowych doświadczeń bankowca.
EN
A key area of concern for banking supervisors is solvency of banking institutions, which determines the stability of the entire banking sector. In the common opinion of regulators, equity capital is the best protection against unexpected losses. The main proponent of this approach has been for many years the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The evolution of the Basel agreements is aimed at improving the protection against increasing forms of risk, yet in the common opinion, credit risk still plays a dominant role. At the moment there are two main methods for estimating the capital requirement for credit risk, known as the Standard Approach and the Internal Ratings Approach. The Standard Approach is simple, intuitive and consequently does not require detailed explanations. The Internal Rating Based Approach, on the other hand, is based on a complex mathematical formula, comprehensible only to a very small group of specialists. The purpose of this paper is to explain the basic assumptions of the IRB framework. This explanation has been simplified as much as possible. Detailed mathematical and statistical proofs are replaced with an intuitive explanation, referring to the typical experience of bankers. The IRB formula framework is actually modified by the banking regulations and adapted to various types of credit exposures. The general assumptions, however, remain unchanged. Understanding the main objectives of the IRB formula opens up further discussion on its relevance to the measurement of actual exposure to credit risk.
PL
Celem artykułu jest analiza istotności wpływu determinant CAMEL w procesie nadawania noty ratingowej bankom. W związku z tym dokonano przeglądu literatury i na tej podstawie postawiono następującą hipotezę badawczą: czynniki CAMEL wpływają w sposób istotny statystycznie na credit rating banków europejskich. Do badania wykorzystano długoterminowe noty ratingowe nadawane bankom europejskim na koniec kwartału przez trzy największe agencje ratingowe. Jako zmienne niezależne zastosowano wskaźniki finansowe oraz zmienne makroekonomiczne zgromadzone z baz Thomson Reuters oraz Banku Światowego. W badaniu zastosowano modele panelowe.
EN
The goal of the article is to analyse the statistically significance of the impact of CAMEL factors on the banks’ credit ratings method. As a result it has been made a literature review and put hypothesis seems as follows: CAMEL factors influence statistically significantly on European banks’ credit ratings. In the research, there have been used the long term issuer credit ratings given European banks at the end of the quarterly by the biggest three credit rating agencies. As independent variables, there have been taken financial indicators and macroeconomic variables collected from the Thomson Reuters and World Bank databases. In the research, there have been proposed panel data models.
RU
В статье рассматривается использование метода CreditRiskPlus для тестирования крайних условий в процессе кредитования. Были представлены возможности его использования в управлении риском кредитного портфеля в розничных экспозициях Общие соображения были показаны на примере использования метода в избранном кооперативном банке. Было указано на возможности использования метода тестирования крайних условий и определения лимитов понижения кредитного участия.
XX
Przedmiotem artykułu jest zastosowanie metody CreditRiskPlus do testowania warunków skrajnych w procesie kredytowania. Pokazano możliwości jej wykorzystania w zarządzaniu ryzykiem portfela kredytowego w ekspozycjach detalicznych. Rozważania ogólne zilustrowano przykładem zastosowania metody w wybranym banku spółdzielczym. Wskazano na możliwości wykorzystania metody do testowania warunków skrajnych oraz ustalania limitów obniżania zaangażowania kredytowego.
EN
The subject of this article is to apply the CreditRiskPlus method to test extreme conditions in the credit process. The possibility of its use in the management of risk in the credit portfolio of retail exposures. General considerations are illustrated by an example application of the method in the selected cooperative bank. The possibilities of using the method for extreme condition testing and determining the limits of reducing credit exposure are indicated in the article.
XX
W artykule podjęto się oceny kondycji finansowej pięciu przedsiębiorstw zlokalizowanych w SSE Euro-Park Mielec za pomocą modeli opartych na analizie dyskryminacyjnej i logitowej (zastosowano 9 modeli) oraz zmodyfikowanej punktowej metody oceny ryzyka kredytowego. Autor podejmuje próbę oceny sytuacji finansowej przedsiębiorstw zlokalizowanych na terenach SSE, jednocześnie dokonuje weryfikacji skuteczności metod analizy finansowej. (fragment tekstu)
EN
This article was an attempt to assess the financial condition of five companies operating in Special Economic Zone Euro-Park Mielec. The assessment was made by the selected discriminatory or logit methods designed for companies operating in Poland and the modified points method of estimating credit risk. The obtained results indicate that all of the analyzed companies are not at risk of bankruptcy, but the used methods are not universal prediction bankruptcy models. Some of them have been prepared for shipping companies. (original abstract)
EN
The rational management of credit risk constitutes the base for construction of the safe and credit portfolio of the bank. Principles of the credit risk management were established in legal documents for the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, of which the implementation to internal procedures is for the bank compulsory. A credit policy is a base of the credit risk management, in frames which priority directions of the credit share, adapted for appetite for the risk accepted by the supervisory board of the bank, are being established for. A system of internal limits, constituting the basic tool of the diversification of credit in many diameters is also an indispensable element of the structure of the secure credit portfolio. All these issues were discussed in the present article.
EN
Migration matrices are widely used in various areas of risk management. In credit risk management an obligor is assigned to one of several rating classes and his future rating is determined by a transition matrix of a Markov chain. The probability that an obligor will change his credibility can be read off a migration matrix. The most important aspect of credit risk management is estimation of the probability that the obligor will not be able to meet his financial commitments, i.e., estimation of the probability of his default. The other field were migration matrices are used are insurance Bonus-Malus systems. The aim of the paper is to present applications of migration matrices in credit risk management, automobile insurance and in investigation of credit card users profiles.
EN
The article aims to identify functions and accounting features of dynamic provisions. The analysis conducted in this paper shows that dynamic provisions have been introduced in several countries to mitigate procyclicality of bank lending. Dynamic provisions in most countries are a constituent of general provisions and as such they should cover expected loan losses. Application of dynamic provisions results in increase of bank capital and reduction of bank's profits volatility. Inclusion of dynamic provisions into profit and loss account may decrease profitability of bank lending.
EN
Making impairment losses on loans and advances is difficult and multifaceted issue. The difficulty in making impairment loss of receivables credit appears at the beginning, because it is the difference in terminology - national standards dictate create provisions for loans and advances, and the International Accounting Standards require to create impairment loss of receivables following an impairment test previously values. Each bank applying IAS should evaluate all their loans and the risk for impairment, IAS, however, do not offer a model for calculating impairment of loans and advances. In the creation of impairment losses on loans and advances of the institution plays a huge role Polish Financial Supervision Authority, as it may allow the creation of copies at a different rate based on the credit risk model in accordance with the provisions of International Accounting Standards. In view of the fact that international accounting standards do not specifically formulate these models, banks can use the so-called method of internal ratings, formulated by Resolution No. 10/2010 in the wake of the FSA provisions of the New Basel Capital Accord of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BASELL 2). There are also problems of harmonization of accounting rules and tax laws, as all banks for bank reporting, as well as defining the base, must comply with the provisions of Polish law - Regulation of the Minister of Finance in 2008.
EN
The article presents the credit risk assessment models based businesses on fuzzy logic. The starting point for the construction of models was to obtain data on 37 loans taken out by businesses in one of the largest co-operative bank, in Podlaskie. Bank in question does not use any statistical model to make credit decisions. The results of the classification in both the first and second fuzzy model provide a basis to conclude that a systematic approach expertise in fuzzy model based on historical data gives satisfactory results of the classification of borrowers.
PL
Kontrakty credit default swap (CDS) stanowią innowacyjną grupę instrumentów pochodnych, stworzonych w celu zarządzania ryzykiem kredytowym. Ich tradycyjne wykorzystanie przez wiele lat ograniczało się głównie do hedgingu i spekulacji. Obecnie, w okresie ugruntowania się ich pozycji na rynku, coraz częściej dostrzega się ich dodatkową funkcję, pozwalającą oceniać ryzyko kredytowe kraju. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest przedstawienie kontraktów credit default swap w roli instrumentów, które dają możliwość prognozowania bankructwa poszczególnych państw. Kontrakty CDS są bowiem źródłem wiedzy o sytuacji ekonomicznej poszczególnych państw, na podstawie której wnioskuje się o kosztach pozyskania pieniądza i obsługi długu w poszczególnych gospodarkach, przekładających się atrakcyjność danej gospodarki.
EN
Credit default swap (CDS) contracts belong to an innovative group of derivatives, created for the credit risk management purpose. Their traditional use has been limited mainly to hedging and speculation for many years. At present, during the period of consolidation of their market position, their additional function which allows to evaluate the credit risk of the country, can be seen more often. The aim of this article is to present credit default swap contracts as instruments which give the opportunity to predict the bankruptcy of individual sovereigns. CDS contracts are a source of knowledge about the economic situation of individual countries, on the basis of which the costs of obtaining money and debt servicing in individual economies, influencing their attractiveness can be assessed.
PL
Artykuł prezentuje metodę CreditMetrics jako najbardziej uniwersalne narzędzie do pomiaru ryzyka kredytowego. Model ten wykorzystuje koncepcję wartości zagrożonej i umożliwia oszacowanie największej możliwej straty, która może być poniesiona na konkretnym kredycie lub portfelu kredytów dla danego poziomu ufności. W części empirycznej artykułu zbadano ryzyko hipotetycznego portfela kredytów udzielonych spółkom notowanym na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie i posiadających rating agencji Moody's z wykorzystaniem symulacji Monte Carlo. W wyniku symulacji otrzymano histogram przyszłych wartości portfela kredytowego, którego kształt potwierdził, że rozkład przyszłych wartości portfela kredytów posiada gruby ogon i jest lewostronnie skośny. Zgodnie z symulacją w najbardziej prawdopodobnym scenariuszu wszystkie spółki wchodzące w skład rozważanego portfela zachowają swój aktualny rating kredytowy na koniec rozpatrywanego okresu.
EN
This paper presents CreditMetrics method as the most universal credit risk measurement approach. This model utilizes the concept of Value at Risk and enables us to evaluate the worst possible loss, which can be incurred on a specific credit or credit portfolio, with the given confidence level. In the empirical part of this paper risk of a hypothetical portfolio composed of 6 credits was examined. Since risk estimation with the use of analytical methods for such case was not possible, Monte Carlo simulation was used to solve this problem. In order to obtain correlated and normally distributed variables, Cholesky decomposition was employed. As a result of the simulation histogram of forward portfolio values was obtained, which shape confirmed that the distribution of credits values has fat tail and is highly skewed to the left. According to the simulation, the most probable situation was that all companies from our portfolio will remain in their current credit rating at the end of the year.
EN
The aim of the study is to compare results of discriminant analyses with bank's classification to the proper debt category. The study was conducted using financial data for 2010 from 116 companies. The results of the study show that the level of convergence in the whole population is not high, reaching 76%-81%. The convergence level is definitely higher when full financial report (according to the Polish accountancy rules) were used, it is also higher when good debts were taken into account.
PL
Banki stosujące zalecenia Umowy Bazylejskiej II/III zobowiązane są do wyznaczania ryzyka na podstawie szeregu parametrów. Jednym z nich jest procent straty – Loss Given Default (LGD). W literaturze LGD traktowany jest jako zmienna losowa, o rozkładzie dwumodalnym. Do szacowania wielkości LGD stosuje się zaawansowane regresyjne modele statystyczne. Alternatywny sposób to wykorzystanie metod data miningowych. Szczególnie atrakcyjne wydają się estymatory typu rodzin klasyfikatorów, które pozwalają na uśrednienie rezultatów wielu „słabych klasyfikatorów” i uzyskanie bardziej precyzyjnych wyników. Rodziny klasyfikatorów operują tzw. informacją. Problemem jest interpretacja informacji w kategoriach biznesowych. Celem artykułu jest uzgodnienie obu podejść i interpretacji. Przedstawione zostaną wyniki szacowania przy użyciu modeli: ułamkowej regresji logistycznej, beta-regresji, boostingu gradientowego oraz lasów losowych. Porównane zostaną właściwości estymatorów. Obliczenia wykonane zostały na danych rzeczywistych.
EN
According to the Capital Requirements Directive banks applying the internal rating based approach are obliged to estimate risk based on a set of risk parameters. One of the risk parameters is Loss Given Default (LGD). LGD is treated as a random variable with a bimodal distribution. One can apply advanced statistical models in LGD estimation. An alternative approach is to use data mining methods. The most promising seem to be families of classifiers, that allow for averaging results of many weak classifiers and for obtaining more precise results. Families of classifiers are built based on information criterion. The problem encountered is interpretation of obtained results in terms of business applications. The aim of the paper is to compare both approaches. We present results of LGD estimation with help of two regression models: fractional and beta regression and two ensemble methods: gradient boosting and random forests. Calculations were done on real life data.
16
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EN
A symptom of the financial crisis in the banking system was an increase in credit risk, which has become an expression of increasing the share of the loan portfolio of non-performing loans on time. The resulting losses were not sufficiently covered by equity, which proved to be insufficient against the increasing difficulties. Increasing the risk of default led to the development of the new capital adequacy ratio known as Basel III, which implies an increase in equity of commercial banks. This process is practically impossible in a short time, especially for medium-sized and small banks. Therefore, banks are forced, to limit their active operations, mainly by reducing lending and sales of treasury bonds of countries with a low credit rating. This process is called deleveraging. (original abstract)
PL
W artykule zaprezentowano wyniki badania empirycznego nad wpływem konkurencji ze strony SKOK-ów na stabilność banków spółdzielczych. Wykorzystano przy tym między innymi dane adresowe wszystkich placówek banków i SKOK-ów, co pozwoliło odzwierciedlić konkurencję jaką napotykały poszczególne placówki banków spółdzielczych na swoich rynkach lokalnych. Uzyskane wyniki dowodzą, że SKOK-i, do niedawna nie objęte państwowym nadzorem finansowym, generowały niepożądaną konkurencję z punktu widzenia stabilności systemu bankowego. Banki spółdzielcze, które były najbardziej narażone na konkurencję ze strony tych podmiotów, raportowały bowiem istotnie wyższe odpisy z tytułu utraty wartości należności kredytowych, co można uznać za objaw poluzowywania przez nie polityki kredytowej. Podejmowanie przez banki spółdzielcze wysokiego ryzyka kredytowego nie sprzyja z kolei stabilności tych podmiotów. Niekorzystny wpływ konkurencji ze strony SKOK-ów na funkcjonowanie banków spółdzielczych ujawniał się również na poziomie marży odsetkowej i rentowności analizowanych banków. Podobnych efektów nie odnotowano natomiast w przypadku konkurencji ze strony innych banków.
EN
In the research article I analyze the effects of competition from Polish credit unions on the stability of cooperative banks. I make use of the addresses of all bank and credit union outlets in order to accurately reflect competitors' strength in local markets. The results prove that credit unions, which until recently stayed outside the official financial supervision, constituted unwanted competition from the perspective of the banking system stability. Cooperative banks that faced the strongest competition from credit unions generated significantly higher loan loss provisions. This result should be related to a comparatively loose credit policy of those banks, and - in turn - taking higher credit risk negatively impacts the stability of these banks. Unwanted competition effects were also observed at the level of the cooperative banks' net interest margin and their profitability. On the other hand, the results do not confirm a comparable negative influence of competition from other banks.
EN
In the first part of the article the author considers the concept of the economic and financial stability. However in the second part he analyses the factors forming the financial stability of enterprises and the impact of the financial situation of the enterprises on economy. The whole analysis is completed by tables, diagrams and conclusions.
EN
A clue for the research have become analysis made by A. Feruś in 2006, In which the author points the possibility of extending classical scoring models with the DEA method, allowing to predict a credit risk. In 2006, in the era of the Basel II implementation, the possibility of such an extension was not reflected in the practice of banks in Poland. But now, as a part of the Basel III implementation, it is reasonable to consider the possibility of their expantion, for example using the DEA . The study was carried out on the basis of 139 companies operating in Poland in 2010-2011 data and a comparison with their actual condition in 2012. Survey results both for 2010 and 2011 indicate a weaker prediction of the scoring models alone than scoring models with DEA In terms of: correct customers classification and the value of a R2 determination factor.
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