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EN
Aim/purpose – The objectives of the paper include: identification of factors that influence the directions of fluctuations of foreign exchange rates seen as manifestations of currency wars; description of the most important forms of currency wars conducted in the contemporary global economy (including in particular the currently observed third currency war); analysis of risks to contemporary financial markets and national economies posed by the third currency war. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the method of critical analysis of the literature on the subject, as well as US-China and Brazil case analyses. The Propensity Score Matching method was used in the study. Findings – The research findings confirmed the following hypotheses: contemporary fluctuations of foreign exchange rates in the largest economies of the world confirm that the third currency war is ongoing; the risk of consequences of the currency war destabilises the international and local financial markets and trade transactions among them. Research implications/limitations – The limited scope of the research performed is due to the fact that emerging economies have no control of devaluation or revaluation processes in their respective countries. However, large economies, such as China or Japan, are able to create the value of their respective currencies, thus artificially controlling the competitiveness of their products and services. These differences between small and large economies limit and distort the scope of the research done. Originality/value/contribution – Identification, analysis and results of the risks to contemporary financial markets and national economies posed by the third currency war.
Horyzonty Polityki
|
2013
|
vol. 4
|
issue 7
175-191
EN
The following article analyses the factors that trigger a currency war and its impact on the economy. The situation on the United States – Chinese front is difficult since both countries are struggling to keep the exchange rate as low as possible. Decisions for maintaining these goals are not simple and often lead to a deterioration of the economy. The situation on the United States – Euro Area front is also dramatic as the euro is currently facing a large debt crisis. Furthermore, years of living beyond their means has led to the current situation. More and more countries are facing a fear of insolvency, scared investors are withdrawing their funds and putting them in better, much safer investments. Figures as well as detailed descriptions will give the reader a better understanding of the mechanisms and objectives behind the initiating of a currency war.
PL
Artykuł przedstawia mechanizmy działania wojny walutowej oraz analizuje konkurencyjną dewaluację dolara względem euro i juana. Dla lepszego zrozumienia owych mechanizmów, przedstawiona została podstawowa definicja oraz podział kursów walutowych na płynne i stałe. Zarówno model Mundella-Fleminga, jak i model AA-YY w warunkach płynnego kursu walutowego pokazują, jak kurs walutowy powinien się zachować podczas prowadzenia ekspansywnej polityki monetarnej, która jest jednym z narzędzi stosowanych podczas prowadzenia wojny walutowej. Część empiryczna artykułu ukazuje związki pomiędzy prowadzeniem polityki nastawionej naobniżenie kursu waluty krajowej a jej realnym wypływem na zwiększenie eksportu.
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