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GOAL-DRIVEN DECISION MAKING IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC SETTINGS

100%
Valisevskis A., Borisovs A.
Humanities and Social Sciences: Latvia
|
2008
|
issue 4(57)
67-91
EN
Nowadays economic setting are becoming more and more dynamic; that places additional stress on decision support methods, since the decisions have to be made with partial and/or imprecise information. On the other hand, the biggest challenge for decision support methods is to accept and to process adequately such information and to provide an answer that does not contradict one's intuition in terms of excessive precision, given the highly imprecise input. This paper explores a decision support method which enables to use both precise and imprecise (probabilistic and qualitative) information for the description of alternatives. The practical application of the method is demonstrated by an example that evaluates construction of a pulp mill in different locations. It is demonstrated how the various alternatives can be described on the basis of the defined criteria set and how they can be evaluated and ranked. Moreover, the paper discusses how to deal with the uncertain results provided by the method described.
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