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Time Series Model for Predicting the Mean Death Rate of a Disease

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Shangodoyin D. K., Ojo J. F., Olaomi J. O., Adebile A. O.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2012
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vol. 13
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issue 2
405-418
EN
This study develops a time series model to estimate the mean death rate of either an emerging disease or re-emerging disease with a bilinear induced model. The estimated death rate converges rapidly to the true parameter value for a given mean death at time t. The derived model could be used in predicting the m-step future death rate value of a given disease. We illustrated the new concept with real life data.
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