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IDEAS in AGORA: Decision-Making Risk: The Difference Between Risk And Uncertainity In Economic Activities

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Vasilcovschi N., Munteanu G.

Human and Social Studies

2014

vol. 3

issue 2

34-46

Economic activities are always supposed to carry with them the risk of market. Our area of research is concerned with what is known as the model of risk decisions at the level of economic activity; a model that can be valuable at any point of economic development. In our research, we present important aspects of risk in taking decisions in the previous and current dynamics of the market. The conditions of taking decisions with potential risks provide decision-makers with the possibility to analyze and calculate risk in order to know what can be gained and lost. In our paper, we present a short description of a different model of risk in economic activity and of decision-making risk, providing examples that have been offered by various authors. For example, Friedman and Savage present the utility function of an economic agent and its availability to accept the risk, while Markowitz defines utility in terms of winning or losing. Our paper starts with a presentation of the quantification of risk in economic activity. In the second part, we present a model of decision-making risk that is applied in economic activities and the difference between risk and uncertainty.

Emocje w procesach decyzyjnych na rynkach finansowych

100%

Rudny W.

Studia Ekonomiczne

2016

vol. 267

163-174

Do lat 70. minionego stulecia obowiązującym paradygmatem analizy decyzji ekonomicznych była racjonalność uczestnika rynku, zakładająca posiadanie przez niego wszystkich niezbędnych informacji, ich bezstronne przetworzenie oraz wybór gwarantujący maksymalną użyteczność. Obserwacje rzeczywistych zachowań inwestorów nie potwierdziły zasadności takiego modelu. Udowodniono natomiast, że immanentnym komponentem większości są emocje, uczucia i stany afektywne oddziałujące na procesy decyzyjne. Teoria perspektywy i teoria ograniczonej racjonalności wytyczyły kierunki dalszych badań. Emocje analizowano z perspektywy neuroprocesów, perspektywy sił napędowych procesów inwestycyjnych, czy też uwarunkowań społecznych. Analiza roli emocji w decyzjach ma szczególne znaczenie w sektorze finansowym ze względu na znaczenie tego sektora w gospodarce. Nowe obszary badań nad zachowaniami w procesach decyzyjnych na rynkach finansowych to „błędne przypisywanie nastroju” (mood misattribution) oraz wpływ „wizerunku” (image).

Until the seventies of the previous century the dominating paradigm of analysis of economic decisions making was that of rationality, which makes an assumption that the investor possesses all the required information, is able to process it in an unbiased way to achieve the maximum utility. The observation of the actual behavior of investors does not support that such model does hold. It has been proven that the immanent component of the majority of decisions are emotions, feelings and affective states. The perspective theory and the theory of bounded rationality mark the direction of future research. Emotions have been then analyzed as neuroprocesses, the driving force behind investment decisions, or the component of social conditioning. The analysis of the role of emotions in decision-making processes is particulary important in the financial sector of the economy. This is due of particular importance of this sector for the economy, The new areas of research of behavior in decision-making in financial markets are mood misattribution and image impact.

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1 Human and Social Studies

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1 Munteanu G.

1 Rudny W.

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IDEAS in AGORA: Decision-Making Risk: The Difference Between Risk And Uncertainity In Economic Activities

Emocje w procesach decyzyjnych na rynkach finansowych