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REVISIT HYSTERESIS UNEMPLOYMENT IN EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES USING QUANTILE REGRESSION

100%
Xie H., Chang T., Grigorescu A., Hung K.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
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vol. 66
|
issue 5
522 – 537
EN
This study revisits hysteresis unemployment hypothesis for 9 Eastern European countries (i.e., Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Russia and Slovakia) over 2000M1 – 2016M8. We apply Quantile unit root tests with and without smooth multiple breaks through Fourier function. These Quantile tests have been proved with good power and size when the data follows heavy-tailed distribution. Empirical results from Quantile unit root tests demonstrate hysteresis unemployment holds in Hungary and Romania two countries only and shocks to the unemployment of each country are asymmetric. Our study has important policy implications for government conducting fiscal or monetary policy to stabilize economic fluctuations in Eastern European countries.
2

MARKET STRUCTURE AND FINANCIAL STABILITY OF BANKS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: DOES CONCENTRATION MATTER?

88%
Karkowska R., Pawłowska M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2019
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vol. 67
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issue 9
953 – 972
EN
The aim of this paper is to verify the impact of the market structure on financial stability in the banking sectors in Central and Eastern European countries, with particular emphasis on the change in the concentration and the share of foreign capital in the period 1999 – 2015. Using the methodology of panel regression, GMM estimator, we examine the implications of banks’ concentration on bank stability of a group of countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Because many empirical studies have examined the role of market concentration, we complement our results with findings on the market concentration-bank fragility trade-off. Employing a concentration ratio (CR5 and HHI) we find that CEE banks are more fragile within a concentrated environment. Our results also reveal that the persistence of risk is affected by the level of bank concentration and this effect is exacerbated mainly during downturns. Finally, the results of this research did not lead to any definite conclusions as to the role of foreign capital participation and rather indicate the impact of bank size and concentration on bank stability.
3

IS INFLATION A MONETARY PHENOMENON IN THE EAST EUROPEAN ECONOMIES? – MULTIFREQUENCY BAYESIAN QUANTILE INFERENCE

75%
Živkov D., Kovačević J., Lončar S.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2020
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vol. 68
|
issue 8
787 – 810
EN
This paper tries to determine how growth of money supply affects inflation in different time-horizons and under different inflation levels in the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Russia. The research is done by using two innovative methodologies – the wavelet approach and Bayesian quantile regression. By observing these four countries, we can assess whether inflation targeting (IT) plays significant role in curbing inflation, because three Visegrad group countries adopted IT almost two decades ago, while Russia started to conduct IT relatively recently. Estimated quantiles suggest that money supply growth does not influence inflation in the Czech Republic and Hungary, whatsoever. We find that money growth impacts inflation in Poland, but very modestly. On the other hand, in the case of Russia, the transmission effect from money to inflation is much higher, and it goes around 40% in low inflation conditions, when M1 aggregate is observed, and around 78% in low inflation conditions, when M3 aggregate is analysed. The overall results clearly indicate that the adoption of the IT framework as a disinflation strategy proved to be successful in the Visegrad group countries, since excessive money growth has little or no effect at all on inflation in these countries.
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