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1

Some methodological questions of bankruptcy prediction and probability of default estimation

100%
Kristof T.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2008
|
vol. 55
|
issue 5
441-461
EN
Hungary's adoption of Basel II Capital Accord gave new impetus to applying and improving multivariate bankruptcy-prediction methods. This article compares the four most commonly applied bankruptcy-prediction techniques in literature and banking practice, in terms of estimation performance. The study attempts to decide, on the basis of empirical research, whether the simulation procedures with less rigorous conditions of application provide a more reliable bankruptcy prediction and probability of default estimation than traditional mathematic/statistical techniques do. The empirical research reveals that principle-component analysis does not necessarily guarantee better predictive power.
2

The effect of financial management habits on operating capital. The example of the Hungarian Post Office

75%
Havran D.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2008
|
vol. 55
|
issue 10
907-926
EN
The cash in circulation within network industries such as post-office services can represent a sizeable quantity of operating capital. The Hungarian Post Office, besides handling mail, handles a significant amount of cash turnover, forwarding pensions, welfare benefits, and cash orders. Fluctuation in the daily volume of these is a strong factor in determining the company's liquidity requirements. The management of cash in post offices is governed by rules of thumb that operate well; the regulations leave decision-making scope for the diverse individual actors in the network. Attention has to be paid to individual cash holding when determining the corporate operating capital. The study suggests a new methodology for modelling the individual cash-holding habits, and goes on to group the behaviour patterns by analysing the connection between cash holding, level of corporate operating capital, and corporate liquidity position.
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