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1

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF PROPENSITIES WITH USING ECONOMETRIC MODELS

100%
Doszyn M.
Przegląd Statystyczny
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 4
25-35
EN
In the article possibilities of calculation of propensity by means of properly specified econometric models were presented. Propensities to consumption of chosen types of households in Poland were estimated (for the years 1993-2004) with application of Bayesian approach. Propensities for consumption were obtained for informative (Normal - Gamma distribution) and non-informative 'a priori' distribution. 'Highest Posterior Density Intervals' and parameters of precision for calculated estimators were also computed. Finally, distribution of propensities to consumption of analyzed types of households were presented
2

Kultura i wypoczynek a wydatki gospodarstw domowych w Polsce

80%
Podolec B.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2012
|
issue 878
91-111
EN
The aim of the paper is to identify the socio-economic conditions of household participation in culture and relaxation. A double-track analysis of household expenditures has been carried out. First, the dynamics of the level and structure of expenditures is carried out based on aggregated data for the years 1998–2008 published by the Central Statistical Office. The second part is based on a 2008 CSO analysis of 37,358 household budgets. Econometric models enabled the set of variables to be estimated. Whether positive or negative, the variables have a statistically significant influence on household expenditures on culture and relaxation.
3

IMPACT OF PROPENSITIES ON STATISTICAL REGULARITIES FORMATION - WHOLE - STRUCTURAL APPROACH

80%
Doszyn M.
Przegląd Statystyczny
|
2007
|
vol. 54
|
issue 1
72-77
EN
It is discussed in the article that propensities coud be treated as forces that make statistical regularities stable. It was assumed that theory of propensity may be an important component of the conception of whole - structural approach to phenomenon analysis. Definition of propensity and the whole - structural econometric model was presented. Dependencies between models of all types of statistical regularities were described. It was proved that propensity that makes relations between specified variables for spacial data stable causes that distribution of given variable is also stable. Propensity that makes relations between specific variables for time series stable causes that tendency of analysed variable is stabilized.
4

APPLICATION OF GIBBS SAMPLING TO CALCULATION OF DISTRIBUTION OF PROPENSITIES BY MEANS OF ECONOMETRIC MODEL

80%
Doszyn M.
Przegląd Statystyczny
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 4
36-42
EN
In the article possibilities of using econometric models to obtain propensities were discussed. Propensity to consumption of households containing pensioners and retired people in Poland in the years 1993-2004 was computed by means of the Gibbs sampling. Normal distribution was chosen as 'a priori' distribution of vector of parameter's estimates. Gamma distribution was set as 'a priori' distribution of parameter of precision. It was assumed that these 'a priori' distributions are independent. Empirical results showed that average propensity to consumption of households of pensioners and retired people in analyzed period was high (0,965)
5
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ECONOMETRIC AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL AND REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE LABOUR MARKET OF POLAND

70%
Dubrovina N.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
|
2008
|
issue 21
28-44
EN
In the given article the research of tendencies and condition of the regional labour markets of Poland for the period of 1995-2004 is made. The models of the moving average (MA) with intervention for the analysis of dynamics of unemployment rate in all districts (voivodeships)-administrative areas of Poland were constructed and the analysis of unemployment rate jumps after joining EU was carried out. The received estimations of parameters for intervention show different reaction of the regional labour markets to the changes of external conditions. The model of dynamics of the gross domestic product share of voivodeship was constructed, the existence of the various fixed regional effects and influence of lagged values on gross domestic product of voivodeship was shown. On the basis of results of intervention parameters estimations and fixed share of the gross domestic product in voivodeship the dependence was constructed that reflected the influence of a regional fixed share of voivodeship GDP and a level of its competitiveness on size of unemployment rate jump in regions of Poland since the beginning of 2003. Thus, it is possible to show, that the higher the regional fixed share of voivodeship GDP the lower was unemployment rate jump. In opposite, the more advanced level of region competitiveness stimulated the increasing of unemployment rate jump. Further, on the basis of the econometric analysis the factors determining the potential of labour markets of Poland in a regional section were revealed, also the influence of employment structure and enterprises specialization on the formation of regional total product was shown, the structural changes of potential of the regional labour markets potential were investigated. The results of the given research show the opportunities of modern statistical methods use for substantiation of the evident problems, for development of the strategic plans for coordination measures in the labour market both for the country as a whole, and individual voivodeships.
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