The main features of the economic development of the Slovak Republic in the year 2004 are as following: strengthening of the quite respectable dynamic growth from the previous years; maintaining macro-economic stability above its average level being achieved in the whole period of the Slovak economy transformation. Positive features which are reflected not only in the values of macro-economic development indicators, but also in the improving results of corporations' business activities, are not sufficiently projected into a social situation of population.
The aim of this paper is to provide detailed analysis of quarterly frequency dynamics in macroeconomic aggregates in Poland. The following areas of concern have been included: the balanced growth theory, the comparison of empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid Philips curve specifications and the changes of macroeconomic stylized facts across the monetary regimes. Thorough analysis of those, as well as other facts, may contribute significantly to the development of macromodelling of Poland. Analysis of other facts has also been conducted, however due to limited space is not provided. The main result of the presented analysis is to give overwhelming evidence that the standard textbook stylized facts of macroeconomics present a reasonably good approximation to the behaviour of Polish economy, providing that this analysis takes into account that the Polish time series are contaminated with outliers.
The paper explains how some discounting cash flows (DCF) methods can be adapted to analyses of macroeconomic trends, related e.g. to long-term changes in GDP. Average annual growth rate in GDP in Poland in 1996-2005 has been evaluated by use of the method analogous to that used for calculation of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in microeconomic analyses. Contrary to the generally used geometric mean, the proposed average growth rate (equivalent to that proposed earlier by I. Timofiejuk) takes into account the accumulated volume of the GDP generated over the whole analysed period, and not merely the ratio of the GDP volume in the last year to that of the base one. This prevents the bias favouring a potential choice of the 'delayed growth' trajectory, yielding identical growth index for the last year of the period as some other (uniform or accelerated) growth patterns, but characterised by a lower volume of the GDP accrued over that period. Calculation of current value of GDP flows for past or future multi-year periods has a sound economic meaning and can be a valuable tool of macroeconomic analyses and studies of growth policy options, adding new arguments for possible 'growth now' trajectories. It has been found out that the 'internal growth rate' of GDP in Poland amounted to 4.8% annually in 1996-2003, as compared to 4.0% geometric average rate for that period. The corresponding IRR rate for the years 1996-2005 has been estimated at 4.5-4.6%, against 4.2%-4.3% geometric average. Final section deals with comparative trends in GDP in Poland and other EU member states. Strong economic upturn in Poland in 2003-2004 has been a surprise to many experts. The growth has been faster than forecast by the European Commission and OECD. It is supposed to continue after the accession.
The influences of nominal effective exchange rate of hryvnya and wholesale price index changes to value of profitability of the economy is defined by application of correlation-regression analysis. The recommendations about optimization of currency and price policy for improvement of economic efficiency of the economy of Ukraine are framed
The problem of the way in which the development of financial markets influences economic growth constitutes one of the unresolved issues in the growth theory. This article addresses the question to what extent the results of research conducted on large samples of countries are corroborated by the study of economies of Central Europe (CEFTA), the developed and the remaining countries of EU during 1990–2000. The results obtained confirm the positive correlation between financial markets' development level and growth. In this respect the countries of CEFTA are similar to the remaining countries of EU, while they markedly differ from the highly developed countries of EU. It is concluded that the strength of influence of financial markets' development on growth depends on the level of economic development.
If Poland is to successfully face the challenges of globalization she should set out to build the society and the economy based on knowledge. The yardstick that measures advances in this field is constituted by the summary innovativeness index. Poland, however, among economies of UE occupies distant 23rd place. Poland's Development Strategy and related to it Operational Programs for 2007 -2013 stress the importance of the knowledge triangle (R&D, education, innovation). Appropriations directed towards R&D and human capital are to grow significantly, alas the effects in innovativeness are not expected to be impressive. Weaknesses in the supply of technology development supporting factors, meager demand on the part of small firms for innovation, attended by inefficient institutional infrastructure are the main causes of this situation. It seems indispensable to initiate work on long term development strategy that would focus on the national innovativeness system and on the activation of country's capital groups.
This paper empirically looks at the contribution of labour force education to the speed at which relatively poor economies are converging to the income per capita level of richer economies. While there is a bulk of empirical studies in addressing the links between human capital and economic growth, this paper makes an endeavour to use a less frequently used proxy for human capital, i.e. the education of the labour force at various levels and investigates whether we can explain cross-country variation in economic growth with variation in labour force education. Using the data of EU-26 countries in the period (1995 – 2009) and based on a three-period data and five-year interval non-overlapping panel, the paper finds that the labour force education helps countries to grow at a faster rate.
This paper highlights the main economic models used to assess the impact of science, technology and innovation on economic development, as well as the main empirical results of the econometric models. They proved that among important factors in promoting economic growth are the capacity for inventions and the competition. The relationship between science, technology and innovation and some economic indicators, in particular – the volume of foreign direct investment and the level of the cash deficit are analysed on the base of cross-sectional data. The findings contradict stereotypes about the need to reduce spending on research and development in crises as well as shed light on the impact of FDI on R&D development of the country.
Analysis of the empirical relationship between investment in information technology (IT) and growth rate of real GDP per capita in a panel of selected European countries for the period 1999 - 2001 seems to suggest that a 10% increase in the level of investment into IT (as % of GDP) would increase real GDP per capita by 1.2%, controlling for other variables. Switching to a decomposition approach (creating an interaction term), a 10% increase in the level of software and services (as % of GDP) would increase real GDP per capita by roughly 1%, controlling for other variables. Nevertheless, as has been shown in this study using correlation analysis and previous other studies, information technology on its own may not lead to accelerated economic growth unless accompanied by investment into human capital accumulation, research and development and other IT infrastructure. In this respect, the results of this paper seem to be consistent with previous other empirical findings.
Why is rent-seeking highly relevant for recent economic theory? In this paper, the author argues that recent criticism of rent seeking theory is not new and relevant. First, he explains the basis of rent seeking and the main contributions to this theory. Then he explains the criticism of this approach, which attacks the static grounds of this theory stemming out of the perfect competition equilibrium model and the normative concretizing of rent-seeking actions. He argues that rent-seeking theory had already abandoned the static perfect competition model in the eighties and that arguments using dynamic rent-seeking theory remain normative until they explain the institutional causes of economic development, which has been the centre of the economic profession for centuries.
This paper examines linkages among foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in 11 countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for the period of 1997 – 2014. Findings from panel data analysis suggest that the relative size of economic growth indicators affect FDI of CEE countries. This result holds for both contemporaneous and lagged relationships. FDI has an impact on economic growth, and this effect is strengthened by financial market development. The efforts of CEE countries increase the economic growth and beneficial spill over effects from FDI to local economies should be concentrated on the support of the development of local financial markets.
In the first part of the paper we describe the origin and the substance of the Post-Keynesian economics, which in the last decades became a distinctive, dissident stream of the contemporary economic thought. To its forerunners and founders belonged a group of the Cambridge economists. One of the most prominent 'proto-Post-Keynesians' was Nicholas Kaldor, whose work is appreciated in the second part of the article. There is described Kaldor's 'neoclassical' period, his transition to the Keynesian economics and his main contributions - particularly the theory of income distribution and economic growth as well as his critique of the theory of the economic equilibrium and monetarism.
(Title in Polish - 'Dzialalnosc B+R i innowacyjnosc determinantami przewagi konkurencyjnej na przykladzie gospodarki szwedzkiej'). Dzialalnosc B+R i innowacyjnosc determinantami przewagi konkurencyjnej na przykladzie gospodarki szwedzkiej'). Knowledge, research and innovation connected with them are regarded as ones of the most important driving strengths of the domestic economy. It could be stated that this phenomenon refers to economic and social spheres and innovations are a kind of a determinant of competitiveness. This theory is supported by an example of Sweden and Swedish economy which is regarded as one of the most innovative and competitive economies in the world. Innovative activity is dependent on the knowledge of people involved in this activity and the quality of the R&D activity. Therefore it needs to be emphasized that Sweden is said to be a leader in the investment in knowledge. Sweden's investments in education as compared to the size of the Swedish economy have long been among the largest in the world. Thus, Sweden has one of the highest levels in the OECD. The economic growth depends on innovations, novelties and improvements which depend on the level of knowledge and skills. That consequently leads to a higher level of both economic development and economic competitiveness. As a result, Swedish economy belongs to the group of innovative leaders. In view of this fact, Sweden can be regarded as one of the richest, the best developed and the most competitive countries and economies in the world.
The paper presents the analysis of factors determining the economic growth from time perspective and their presentation in selected models. Growth is an extremely complex term dependent on many conditions. That is why models describing it are based on many assumptions which, on the one hand, al- low making the analysis simpler but, on the other hand, are depicting only the 'closer image' of reality where just selected factors explain the process of growth. Taking into consideration only quantitative determinants is not enough to indicate the sources of economic development. Therefore, qualitative conditions are also included and are currently becoming the main object of growth generators re- search. Particular emphasis was placed on the supply models of growth to show evolution of the supply determinants.
This text examines the post-crisis scenarios of economic growth. In order to explain the possible variants of future developments, it first provides an account of the crisis and describes the diverse types of state interventions used to control the crisis, and their immediate effects. Next the various possible scenarios of economic growth are considered, taking into account their probabilities, e.g. low likelihood of a consumer boom, possible increase in investments, but reasons as well for its possible decrease. Further on the article assesses the dynamics of the growth factors presented and the role of global co-operation in handling the crisis. The Author concludes that in order to avert a repeat financial meltdown, a mix of strategies and approaches needs to be adopted.
The paper provides a Central European reader with some information concerning the knowledge in the field of economic growth. Information on neoclassical growth models (the 'Solow-Swan model' and the 'Ramsey model') is given. We present the production functions, the dynamic equations of the models, the steady state, and transitional dynamics. We discuss three variants of the introduction of the technological advance to the 'Solow-Swan model' and possible extensions of this model. The problematic behaviour of the neoclassical models in an open-economy setup is mentioned. The paper selects the 'AK model', which does not exhibit transitional dynamics, and the 'Uzawa-Lucas model', which on the contrary exhibits transitional dynamics, as examples of endogenous models. We discuss the modelling of the technological change and technological diffusion.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990 – 2013. In comparison to similar empirical studies, our paper will add to the existing literature by extending the sample of developed countries and providing the latest empirical evidence for non-linear and structural breaks. Our model results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.
This paper investigates the relationship between tax structures and economic growth in selected CEE countries in the period from 1990 to 2010. The research basis on the data for 20 selected countries (EU-13 and selected former Soviet Union countries and Albania). We obtain empirical results by using the Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG). The analysis focuses on the impact of structure of taxes on economic growth. All regressions contain the overall tax burden represented as a share of total tax revenues in GDP. The results show that all tax forms have a negative impact on economic growth. Personal income taxes proved to have the highest negative impact on economic growth, followed by corporate income taxes and property taxes, which had the least negative impact. Consumption taxes showed to be statistically insignificant. Furthermore, the results indicate a significantly different impact observed countries’ tax structures had on economic growth to that of previous research on the dataset of OECD developed industrial countries.
This article examines the long run relationship between economic growth and stock prices for Canada and the United States through cointegration estimation procedure, and it implements the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to abstract simultaneously the short- and long-run information in the modelling process. The results from the cointegration tests reveal that economic growth and stock prices share long run equilibrium relationship for both Canada and the U.S. The results from the VECM indicate that for the U.S., causality runs from economic growth to stock prices but not vice versa. However for Canada, the results reveal that there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and stock prices.
Remittances represent one of the most important money flows into the developing world comparable to, and often exceeding, earnings from exports of goods and services and foreign direct investments. Even though importance of remittances in poverty reduction has been documented, impact of remittances on economic growth remains under-investigated mainly due to a strong endogeneity of remittances with respect to both level and growth rates of GDP. We provide detailed look into this endogenous relationship and discuss possible instruments which can help to remedy this problem in IV-estimation. In order to establish a link between economic growth and remittances we use range of instrumental variables encompassing geographical, microeconomic-based and internal instruments. By interacting remittances with other determinants of economic growth we provide evidence that remittances are especially important source of growth in poor countries not because of low level of development per se, but because the effect of remittances on growth is stronger providing level of human capital and savings rate are low and financial markets are underdeveloped.
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