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Modelowanie inflacji

100%
Utzig G.
Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician
|
2000
|
issue nr 10
15-19
XX
Autorka podkreśla, że zjawisko inflacji można tłumaczyć na gruncie dwóch podstawowych teorii: teorii kosztowej mającej swoje źródło w keynesizmie oraz teorii monetarnej. Na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań stwierdza, że każdą z tych teorii można wykorzystać do wyjaśnienia inflacji w Polsce w latach 90-tych.
2
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Analiza zależności przyczynowych rozwoju gospodarczego polski i wybranych państw unii europejskiej

100%
Janiga-Ćmiel A.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2013
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vol. 159
51-72
EN
The study examines the development of the Polish economy as well as the economies of selected European Union countries in the period from 1949 to 2006. Models based on GDP growth in particular countries were also built. Much space is devoted to a comparative analysis of the development of economies in the countries concerned. A BEKK multivariate GARCH model was built, which allowed for defining a multivariate ARCH effects. Much space is devoted to the theory of the construction of the VECH secondary model and its estimation method. The causality of the impact that economies exert on one another was examined and the occurrence of the multivariate ARCH effect was verified by means of Hosking test.
3
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Dylematy modelowania gospodarki narodowej

100%
Biolik J.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2013
|
vol. 152
11-19
EN
This paper presents problems of the construction of econometric models (MES-1 and MGS) in the Polish economy. These models were constructed in the 80's by a team led by Professor Kolonko. Model of the Polish economy - MES - 1 covered areas of: employment, production, national income, public money fund, consumption and foreign trade. The main object of this model was prediction. This model had a high compliance measured by determination ratio. Estimated prognosis had relatively high accuracy. To estimate the predictive accuracy of the model measures ex-ante and ex-post were used. MGS model was used to the simulation analysis. The transition to a market economy and changes in the economic system in the early 90's led to abandonment of further work on the use of constructed models.
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