The paper reviews effects of exchange rate regime’s choice for adjustments processes in current accounts (CA) in the Central and Eastern Europe countries between 2008-2012. During the period of global financial crisis, Poland may be treated as a handbook example of the reaction of floating exchange rate to shock and adjustments in the form of expenditure switching. However, the Polish experience is not typical among the Central and Eastern Europe countries. There is no evidence for the positive role of floating exchange rate in macroeconomic adjustments after the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe countries which belong to EU. The adjustments in the countries with fixed regimes were fast and deep. The real exchange rate decreased and export, CA and goods and services balance improved, development distance against EU countries was reduced. However, the experience of Baltic countries, which have internal devaluation, should be very carefully conveyed to other countries.
Aim/purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between financial strength and policy outcomes of central banks in Africa. This is against the background of challenging policy tasks facing African central banks and the fact that they increasingly have to respond to occurrences that stem from the volatile global financial system. Design/methodology/approach – Three panel regression models were developed and estimated to capture the effects of the financial strength of the central banks of ten selected countries on their inflation outcomes, official exchange rate, and interest rate. Annual data derived from the balance sheets of ten African central banks as well as macroeconomic variables from World Development Indicators for the period 2000-2014 were used for the empirical analysis. Findings – This study found out that: central bank financial strength is not a significant determinant of inflation outcomes in African countries; central bank financial strength has a significant impact on the determination of official exchange rate in Africa; and central bank financial strength is not a significant factor in the determination of interest rates by central banks in Africa. Research implications/limitations – A major implication is that central bank financial strength is necessary for result-oriented exchange rate policy in African countries. However, studies employing other estimation methods may make for more robust results. Also, the inclusion of central banks that report the results of their operations in other languages apart from English may make for better generalization. Originality/value/contribution – This study is unique in that it has focused exclusively on central banks of countries in Africa. It has also added value by considering the effect of central bank financial strength not only on inflation, but also on exchange rate and interest rate which are issues of serious concern in developing countries.
The exchange rate differences during a circulation year and on a balance day, in particular of the components of the assets a nd liabilities in the foreign currencies such as debts, obligations, credits, loans, monetary medium in the currency cash desk and on a currency bank accounts, financial investments, shares, bonds, monetary contributions in foreign currencies which have to cover shares in commercial companies are the result of the performed currency transactions.
Monetary policy and fiscal policy are the two important macroeconomic policies which are used to achieve certain major macroeconomic goals like economic growth, unemployment reduction, counteract inflation and overall economic development of the nation. The effect of macroeconomic variables may differ in terms of degree, duration, different economic systems and under different exchange rate regimes. This study analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy on the economy in terms of economic integration and different exchange rate regimes. Regression analysis in this study found that the fiscal policy is more effective in a closed economy and monetary policy is more effective in an open economy. Also the study finds that the fiscal policy is more effective under managed float exchange rate regime and monetary policy is more effective under perfectly flexible exchange rate. So this study also validated Mundell− Fleming model.
Teoria szarych systemów zaproponowana w 1982 roku przez J. Denga zakłada, że proces modelowania pewnego zjawiska przebiega w warunkach niepełnej (szarej) informacji. Z uwagi na to, że szare modele umożliwiają budowę prognoz na podstawie ultrakrótkich szeregów czasowych, ocena stacjonarności (bądź jej brak) analizowanego szeregu czasowego zmiennej prognozowanej nie jest dokonywana. W artykule użyto trzech różnych metod estymacji parametrów szarych modeli. Za pomocą uzyskanych modeli dokonano predykcji kursów wybranych walut. Jako miarę użyteczności modelu przyjęto procentowy błąd względny prognoz wygasłych.
EN
The purpose of this article is to present the possibilities of using the grey models theory in the prediction of short financial time series on the example of chosen currencies exchange rates. The period of analysis includes data from the years 2009- 2016. In the article, three different methods of parameters estimation of grey models are used. On the basis of these three methods the prediction results with an analysis of the relative errors are presented. The influence of the chosen parameters on the prediction result are investigated.
Celem artykułu jest ocena skali zmienności kursu złotego w stosunku do euro i dolara, dokonana w porównaniu do kursów innych, wybranych walut krajów Unii Europejskiej: korony czeskiej, korony szwedzkiej, forinta węgierskiego i funta brytyjskiego. Do analizy zastosowano trzy wskaźniki: procentowe odchylenie kursu dziennego od średniej z badanego okresu i od średniej z poprzedzających dwóch lat oraz miernik ERV, a także przeprowadzono analizę korelacji. Zaobserwowano, że skala zmienności kursu złotego w stosunku do euro i dolara w porównaniu do innych walut nie jest zbyt znaczna oraz że stopień powiązania wartości walut z euro jest zasadniczo większy niż z dolarem, co przekłada się na wyższą stabilność ich kursów względem wspólnego pieniądza.
EN
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the scale of volatility of the złoty’s exchange rate against the euro and the dollar, in comparison to the rates of other selected currencies of the European Union member states: Czech koruna, Swedish krona, Hungarian forint and British pound. Three indicators were used for the analysis: percentage deviation of the daily exchange rate from the mean in the studied period and from the mean in the preceding two years and the measure of the ERV, and also the correlation analysis was conducted. It was observed that the scale of volatility of the zloty’s rate against the euro and the dollar compared to other currencies is not very excessive and that the degree of linkage of the currencies’ values with the euro is substantially higher than with the dollar, which translates into greater stability of their exchange rates against the common currency.
Podczas negocjacji dotyczących udzielenia kolejnej transzy pomocy finansowej dla Grecji w połowie 2015 r. powróciła możliwość wyjścia tego kraju z europejskiej unii gospodarczo-walutowej. Zwolennicy takiego scenariusza wskazywali, że powrót do waluty narodowej oraz jej szybka dewaluacja wpłyną na wzrost wartości greckiego eksportu, co wprost przyczyni się do długo oczekiwanego ożywienia gospodarczego. Należy jednak wziąć pod uwagę specyficzne cechy, jakie dane państwo musi posiadać, aby wprowadzenie własnej waluty przyniosło więcej pozytywnych skutków aniżeli negatywnych. Grecka gospodarka dysponuje jedynie częścią z nich, w efekcie czego koszt zmiany byłby wysoki, a trwałe efekty pojawiłyby się dopiero w średnim lub długim okresie.
EN
During the negotiations, which concerned the transfer of the next tranche of financial aid to Greece in mid-2015, returned the possibility of its exit from European EMU. Supporters of this scenario pointed out, that returning to the national currency and its rapid devaluation will impact on increase of the value of Greek export, which directly contribute to the long-awaited economic recovery. However, it should take account the specific features, which country must have, in order to introduce new currency brought more positive than negative effects. The Greek economy has only part of them, with the result that the cost of such a significant change would be high and the effects would arise only in the medium or long term.
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