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  1. 1 Przegląd Statystyczny

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  1. 1 2008

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  1. 1 Purczynski J.

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SELECTED ASPECTS OF FORECASTING WITH THE USE OF EXPONENTIAL TREND

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Purczynski J.
Przegląd Statystyczny
|
2008
|
vol. 55
|
issue 1
27-44
EN
In this paper selected aspects concerning the use of exponential trend in the forecasting process were considered. An approximate method for estimating trend parameters was proposed. The method yielded results similar to results given by least squares method (LSM). the formula determining 'ex ante' error of the forecast determined by the approximate method and LSM for random element additive model was defined. Computer simulations were done - including three models of random element (additive, multiplicative, mixed) - with the aim of determining the range of usefulness of logarithmic transformation method, LSM and the approximate method.
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