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1

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS MODELS FOR THE FORECASTING OF FIRM BANKRUPCY (Porównanie skutecznosci modeli wielowymiarowej analizy dyskryminacyjnej sluzacych prognozowaniu upadlosci przedsiebiorstw)

100%
Mirowska D., Lasek M.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2010
|
issue 1(45)
73-90
EN
In the article, comparative study of multidimensional discriminant analysis models elaborated for firms bankruptcy forecasting under Polish economic conditions are discussed. Bankruptcy forecasting accuracy of the models was verified utilizing financial data from financial statements drawn up for companies operating in the construction branch (construction industry) and calculated firm financial ratios. In the models evaluation, firm classification matrix and the model valuation measures (efficiency and classification errors) were applied. Findings of other studies, described in the literature, on the effectiveness of multidimensional discriminant analysis models for firm bankruptcy forecasting, that were described in the literature including the author's own findings have been discussed briefly. Directions for possible further studies that could lead to an improvement of multidimensional discriminant analysis models for firm bankruptcy forecasting have been proposed.
2

WE EXPECT STOCKS TO RISE, BUT WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN AND WHICH ONES: EXCESSIVE OPTIMISM IN PREDICTING FUTURE STOCK INDICES RETURNS

100%
Grežo M.
Studia Psychologica
|
2017
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vol. 59
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issue 2
113 – 126
EN
In this study, we analyse whether: 1) financial professionals manifest lower excessive optimism in predicting future stock indices returns; 2) excessive optimism occurs more when predicting future returns of indices reporting profits than indices reporting losses 3) more long-term predictions are more optimistic than short-term predictions. Three groups of participants (n = 251) – investment managers, financial advisors, and lay men predicted future returns of six stock indices in three forecasting horizons by estimating the 95% confidence intervals. The results showed a high inaccuracy in all three groups. The most accurate group was a group of investment managers, followed by lay men and advisors. We also found that 93% of all incorrect predictions were over-optimistic and excessive optimism was much higher when forecasting stock indices that reported profits in the recent past. The results of this research did not confirm previous findings about inverse effect of expertise in predicting future returns of financial assets.
3

EFFECTIVENESS OF EXPERTS' SYSTEM AND ARTIFICIAL INTELIGENCE IN FORECASTING BANCRUPTCY OF COMPANIES (Skutecznosc systemu eksperckiego i sztucznej inteligencji w prognozowaniu upadlosci firm)

100%
Korol T.
Pieniądze i Więź
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2010
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vol. 13
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issue 1(46)
155-164
EN
This article is about the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in Poland. The author compares two methods of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies: artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic. In the conducted research he used data of 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing set data. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. The author's developed models of fuzzy logic are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.
4

STOCK MARKET PRICE INDICES MODELLING BY A SMALL SCALE BAYESIAN VAR: THE CASE OF BRITISH FTSE AND GERMAN DAX INDEX

100%
Bikár M., Hodula M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2016
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vol. 64
|
issue 8
737 – 750
EN
This article examines the behaviour and responses of stock market indices to various macroeconomic determinants by using small scale Bayesian VAR model. Our objective is to investigate the extent to which various macroeconomic shocks contribute to changes in stock market conditions. We focus on the German DAX 30 index and British FTSE 100 indices which serve as indicators for the development of the German and British economy as well as an illustration to evaluate the performance of the model. We have confirmed the general view that BVAR model outperforms a standard VAR model when the forecasting accuracy improved from 5% to 12%. We have also confirmed that any increase in risk-premium negatively influences stock markets in both case studies. However, the structure of the economies and capital also makes a difference, as found from different market reactions to supply shock.
5
Content available remote

FORECASTING OF DEMAND FOR DIRECT PRODUCTION MATERIALS AS THE ELEMENT OF SUPPLY LOGISTICS OF THERMAL POWER PLANTS

100%
Mesjasz-Lech A.
LogForum
|
2011
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vol. 7
|
issue 2
EN
The paper highlights the problems associated with the process of forecasting realized within the supply logistics in thermal power plants. The theoretical part focuses on the importance of forecasting of inventories of raw materials in thermal power plants and the quality of logistics decisions determined by utilitarian value of data obtained, stored, processed and transmitted within the logistic system. The practical part presents the results of studies conducted in one of the thermal power plants in the south of Poland and the results of forecasting of the demand for the materials directly used in manufacturing process.
6

GLOBALIZÁCIA NÚTI MENIŤ PRÍSTUP K PROGNÓZOVANIU VÝVOJA V NÁRODNÝCH EKONOMIKÁCH

100%
Prachár I.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2005
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vol. 53
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issue 4
347-363
EN
By now the utilisation of theoretical knowledge of forecasting relied on economic system of a national economy. But the share of foreign capital in the national economy is increasing and it is not more possible to explain the phenomenon of economic development - and to forecast too - only on the base of internal disposition of individual countries. There are enclaves emerging in a national economy which are subordinated to different development determinations. These changes are proved not only by evidence but by the theory as well. On other hand, picture of global economy is rather fragmented than compact. It outlines that the processes running in it are fragmentary too. It seems unlikely to work-out its general theory as well. Different starting points are possible for the orientation in such a future development. Among these, the pragmatic solutions of dominating problems raised by acute necessities of development alone are taken for in this article.
7

ARE THE CONFIDENCE INDICATORS MEANINGFUL FOR FORECASTING REAL ECONOMY? TESTING POWER OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS FOR INDUSTRY OUTPUT, PRICES AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE VISEGRÁD GROUP COUNTRIES

100%
Nežinský E., Baláž V.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2016
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vol. 64
|
issue 10
923 – 936
EN
This paper examines predictive power of the confidence indicators for developments in industrial output, producer prices and employment in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland (V4 countries). The Granger Causality tests are used for establishing potential causation between the confidence indicators and real economy data. The best OLS models with autoregressive terms complemented by confidence indicators are selected and their predictive accuracy is tested against the ARMA benchmarks with the Diebold-Mariano test. All OLS models performed better than the naïve ones .We conclude that the actual CI variables seem to reflect future patterns of economic development in next 1 – 2 months, and not just opinions by economic agents based on current or past economic trajectories.
8
Content available remote

Forecasting of manufacturing production index using business survey results of IRG SGH

100%
Dudek S.
Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
|
2005
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vol. 14
163-184
EN
The main aim of the paper is to research usefulness of business survey results of IRG SGH for forecasting of manufacturing production yearly index (YoY). For this purposes there were used single equation regressions. The regressions use as a explanatory variables business survey indexes with different possible leads. Paper uses 8 questions from the IRG SGH industrial survey in the perception and expectation form and also general business indicator. All model are investigated for raw, seasonally adjusted and smoothed time series. In addition qualitative models are compared with autoregression model. The general conclusion of the research are: models for seasonally adjusted and smoothed series have better forecasting properties; qualitative models have better forecasting properties than autoregression model; qualitative models allow for two-months ahead forecasts; the models for balances have comparable forecasting properties or even better than models based on fractions from particular questions
9

FORESIGHT V DRUHEJ A TRETEJ FÁZE GLOBALIZÁCIE

100%
Jemala M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2010
|
vol. 58
|
issue 8
838 – 855
EN
The main objective of this paper is to outline dynamically the evolution of the Foresight in the 2nd and 3rd phase of Globalisation. Here, the key mission is to characterize partial determiners and circumstances that have conducted the evolution of this pervasive R&D planning method, together with broader participation and changing focus of Foresight over the time. The general hypothesis is that Foresight has evolved like the consequence of increasing uncertainties that bring Globalisation and technical progress, and it is the specific form of strategic participative planning. The new discoveries are analysed here by an extensive literature review and comparisons, and also based on the Bibliometrical analysis of the European Foresight Monitoring Network database. The scope of this theme and the diversity of specialists’ opinions do not allow performing too specific analyses. The main approach here is to identify the main development of Foresight in relations to several key historical events in the 2nd and 3rd phase of Globalisation as well as to outline several mutual linkages.
10
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FIRM BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION USING SOFT TECHNIQUES OF CALCULATION (Prognozowanie upadlosci firm przy wykorzystaniu miekkich technik obliczeniowych)

100%
Korol T.
Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse
|
2010
|
vol. 6
|
issue 2
1-15
EN
This article is about the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in Poland. In the article the author compares seven methods of artificial intelligence of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. It is first attempt of comparative analysis of such wide variety of artificial intelligence methods in predicting bankruptcy in Poland. In the conducted research the author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. The author's developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.
11

Prognozowanie bankructwa a koniunktura gospodarcza

100%
Pawełek B., Pociecha J.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2011
|
issue 873
5-27
EN
The paper presents the problem of predicting bankruptcy in changing business cycles. A firm’s bankruptcy risk depends on the quality of management, the firm’s efficiency and other internal microeconomic factors as well as on macroeconomic external factors, which the business cycle is one measure of. Classical bankruptcy prediction models have focused on only internal factors in the form of financial ratios. Our main conclusion is that some measures of the business cycle situation should be included in bankruptcy prediction models. Our research shows that there are significant links between firm bankruptcies and the business cycle, and that the global economic situation strongly affects the risk of bankruptcy. Some regional and sectoral differences in bankruptcy risk are also evident in the Polish economy. Our research has allowed us to created bankruptcy prediction models that use business cycle synthetic measures.
12

Prognozowanie liczby pacjentów poradni ortopedycznej

100%
Lasa U.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2011
|
issue 876
71-83
EN
The paper analyses a time series of the daily number of patients visiting an orthopedics clinic. A learning set was chosen to ensure the homogeneity of series variance and three forecasting models were built. The regression model consists of the linear trend, dummy variables describing weekly and yearly seasonal components and the auto-regression of the residuals. ARIMA, with non-seasonal and seasonal differencing, contains only the components of the first order moving average. The exponential smoothing model covers the linear trend and weekly harmonic component. The residuals from all three models very closely follow normal distribution. Forecasts have been compared with actual data for a monthly test period and all models allow us to forecast the number of patients, with a mean square error of 9 people. Exponential smoothing appears to have the lowest MAPE for the test period.
13

VALUES, STRENGTHS AND FUTURES OF MUSEUMS, LIBRARIES AND COMMUNITY CENTRES AS SEEN BY EXPERTS IN THE FIELD: FIRST ROUND RESULTS OF A DELPHI STUDY

88%
Tóth J.
Muzeológia a kultúrne dedičstvo
|
2020
|
vol. 8
|
issue 2
55 – 75
EN
In the process of building local communities with shared cultural values, museums, libraries and community centres are key agents in civil society. When these institutions project specific notions and ideal types of identity and citizenship, they have the potential to produce changes in people’s behaviour. It is only natural that political bodies are interested in these processes. On 16 September 2016, the Ministry of Human Capacities of the Hungarian Government launched an EU-funded project with the primary aim of strengthening social cohesion within the region. As a part of this project, we surveyed 59 professionals working in Hungarian museums, libraries and community centres, using the Delphi method, to gain insights about their capacities, needs, and visions. This article presents the results of the first round of analysis. Respondents’ answers were analysed using NVivo qualitative data analysis software, which resulted in a thematic map showing the main problems professionals in these sectors are struggling with, and highlighting the kinds of visions they had for their institutions’ future. The study clearly shows that the cultural sector is plagued by financial problems, and that there is a strong need for reform when it comes to the professional training of workers in these fields. Regarding the future, visions are centred on cultural institutions increasingly becoming community spaces, think tanks, and ideas workshops that consciously guide community formation.
14

Investytsiyne zabezpechennya priorytetnykh haluzey ekonomiky v korotkostrokoviy perspektyvi

88%
Chernenko O. L.
Mekhanizm Rehuluvannya Economiky
|
2014
|
vol. 2 (64)
142-151
EN
The emergence of a new list of priority sectors of the economy, which the Government declares, conditions the need for calculating the volume of investment resources, which must be involved by the state in these industries to support their development in the short term. The implementation of such prediction requires the use of advanced methods of economic-mathematical modelling that will be effective in conditions of the limited availability of statistical data. This task was implemented due to: the developing an approach to the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the relationship between investment in fixed assets and gross value added in 33 economic activities in Ukraine, test of its effectiveness on data from the German economy, constructing a series of predictions to 2016 on the basis of the data obtained to priority economic activities. By a two-parameter exponential smoothing the scenarios of optimistic, average and pessimistic forecasts were formed. The obtained results will enable one to determine the amount of investment in fixed assets, which should be involved by the state in the priority economic activities until 2016 for their intensive development.
15

AUTOMATIC PROCEDURE OF BUILDING SPECIFICATION OF DYNAMIC CONGRUENT MODEL IN GRETL PACKAGE

88%
Blazejowski M., Pawel K., Tadeusz K.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2010
|
issue 4 (48)
152-160
EN
In recent years we can observe intensive development of automatic model selection procedures. Best known are PcGets and RETINA. Such intensive work encourage to work on a new procedures. The concept of Congruent Modeling, formulated by Prof. Zygmunt Zielinski, is a very good framework for such development, including programming work, as well as many theoretical considerations. In the paper there is presentation of concept of algorithm for automatic congruent modeling procedure and its implementation in Gretl..
16

PASSENGER CAR SALES PROJECTIONS: MEASURING THE ACCURACY OF A SALES FORECASTING MODEL

88%
Pavelková D., Homolka L., Vychytilová J., Ngo V. M., Bach L. T., Dehning B.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
|
vol. 66
|
issue 3
227 – 249
EN
This paper considers the importance of the automobile industry in the global economic environment and sheds additional insight on the forecasting of passenger car sales. The study uses data from the automotive sectors in 38 countries, which account for more than 80% of passenger cars in use worldwide for testing the accuracy of a general framework that uses income and other country-specific factors to forecast passenger cars sales for short- and mid-term periods. The results indicate that this framework can be applied to a wide range markets, but its performance is primarily influenced by income levels in these markets. Tested and discussed is not only income as the main predictor of sales, but also the effects of other factors such as vehicle ownership level on passenger car sales projections. Income is shown to play both a determining role and a moderating role that affects other variables’ impact on passenger car sales.
17

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN SELECTED TRANSITION COUNTRIES

88%
Aristovnik A., Berčič B.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2007
|
vol. 55
|
issue 7
659-675
EN
In the article, we review recent literature on fiscal sustainability with a particular reference to the problems that are specific to the transition countries. While the original literature on fiscal sustainability is chiefly focused on the industrial countries there are by now few works that have focused on fiscal sustainability in the transition countries. Consequently, the article's purpose is to assess the short-, medium- and long-term sustainability of fiscal policy (under set assumptions) on the national level in the great majority of the transition countries which we divide into three main groups, i.e. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Southern and Eastern Europe (SEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Based on the mainstream theory measures of the fiscal sustainability, the results indicate that fiscal sustainability seems to be a problem in many transition countries, particularly in the Visegrad group countries (in CEE region) and in Albania and Croatia (in SEE region).
18

MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING: MEASURING AND MANIFESTATIONS OF RISKS AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF THEIR REDUCING

88%
Marček D., Fraňo M., Marček M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2011
|
vol. 59
|
issue 4
392 – 411
EN
The paper is concerned with measuring and assessment of risk scenes in managerial decision-making. It builds upon the uncertainty of economic information, which is converted into the concept of risk scene expressed in terms of probability and using confidence intervals of the predicted quantities. The paper explains the relation of a degree of risk expressed by the classical information measure, bit, by the concept of confidence intervals, or possibly by the standard deviation. When making decisions, the manager is interested not only in the quantitatively expressed value of risk scene with the use of forecasting models, but mainly in the impact of decrease/increase of decision-making risk expressed by the effect, i.e. profit/loss caused by such a decision to achieve targets. A method of decision effect calculation is proposed which is derived from the information entropy change and the change in risk scene in managerial decision-making. Forecasting models are applied which are based on an expert estimate and a statistical theory, and the risk scenes are assessed in forecasting models based on neural networks.
19

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION: EVIDENCE FROM WHOLESALE COMPANIES IN THE WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

75%
Vuković B., Milutinović S., Milićević N., Jakšić D.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2020
|
vol. 68
|
issue 5
477 – 498
EN
The aim of this paper was to develop a model that can forecast the bankruptcy of the companies using logistic regression model. The sample consists of 23 bankrupts and 30 healthy companies selected from the initial sample of all large active companies (1740 companies). The companies operate in the trade industry, sector wholesale in Western Europe, in the time period from 2010 to 2018. The logit model was based on the choice between 23 financial indicators. The obtained results with high accuracy showed that the most important bankruptcy predictors were the following five indicators: return on equity, current assets/ total assets, solvency, working capital turnover, stocks/current assets. The developed model provides an opportunity for all external stakeholders to easily identify companies that are facing the risk of bankruptcy. The possibility of the company’s bankruptcy prediction, the assessment of risk and threatened circumstances to continue business is crucial information for making all future business decisions with the company.
20

EVALUATION OF GDP GROWTH FORECASTS: DOES USING DIFFERENT DATA VINTAGES MATTER?

75%
Šindelář J., Budinský P.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2016
|
vol. 64
|
issue 9
827 – 846
EN
This paper deals with effect of different real-time data vintages (recent and first outturn) on accuracy of real GDP growth forecasts produced by main Czech and Slovak public authorities (ministries of finance, central banks). Firstly, variation in the real-time data itself was analysed, along with of multidimensional forecasting error evaluation (MAE, RMSE, MASE measures). Then, battery of statistical tests was applied in order to determine, whether the switch from first to recent real-time data affects forecasts´ accuracy in a significant manner (Wilcoxon Signed Rank test, Sign test) and whether it affects relative accuracy between individual institutions (Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney U test). Our results show that while the change in underlying data affects forecasting accuracy in our sample (using recent data lead to higher errors), the changes were neither found statistically significant in strong majority of surveyed cases, nor affected the relative accuracy of involved institutions.
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