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1

Gospodarczy wymiar integracji z Unią Europejską – 10 lat członkostwa Polski w UE

100%

Wieczorek P.

Kontrola Państwowa

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2014

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vol. 59

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issue 3(356)

82-103

EN

It is sometimes difficult to estimate the impact of Poland’s accession to the EU on individual aspects of the economy’s functioning in the micro- and macroeconomic scale. Undoubtedly though, the membership in the EU and related adjustments in the political, legal and economic spheres have created a favourable climate for activating the internal potential of the Polish economy and business circles, which has resulted in a tangible progress in the process of Poland’s catching up with better developed EU states. In the years 2003–2013, the cumulated GDP growth in Poland stood at 44.5 percent, which made one of the best results among the new EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe. The article focuses on microeconomic issues and contributes to the attempts to define Poland’s achievements in this area since 2004, as well as its lost opportunities to strengthen the economy’s competitiveness and basis for long-term development.

2

High-technology exports and economic growth: panel data analysis for selected OECD countriesHigh-technology exports and economic growth: panel data analysis for selected OECD countries

80%

Kabaklarli E., Duran M. S., Üçler Y. T.

Forum Scientiae Oeconomia

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2018

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issue Volume 6 (2018) Issue No. 2: Economic Growth, Innovations and Lobbying

47-60

EN

This paper uses a panel cointegration model to analyse the long-term relationship between high-technology exports and economic growth in selected OECD countries in the period from 1989 to 2015. We used high-technology exports (current US$) as the dependent variable and the GDP growth rate, FDI (foreign direct investment), application of patents by residents, and gross capital formation % of GDP as explanatory variables. The export structure of countries is moving increasingly towards technology-intensive products such as ICT (information and communications technology), aerospace, computing and office equipment, electronics, chemical products, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery. The export structure has played an important role in the economic growth theories of many countries since the 1960s, as export growth has been associated with faster productivity and GDP growth. We aimed to find out the relationship between high-technology exports and the explanatory variables which we listed for 14 selected OECD countries (Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Korea, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Turkey, the UK, and the USA). According to our empirical results, there is a long-term relationship between high-technology exports and economic growth in selected OECD countries. The empirical results show that an improvement in patent applications and foreign direct investment play a decisive role in upgrading selected OECD countries’ high-tech exports, while growth rate and investment play a negative role in enhancing these countries’ high-tech exports.

3

Nakłady na działalność badawczo-rozwojową a PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej

80%

Dworak E., Grzelak M. M.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

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2010

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vol. 241

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issue 7-8

107-120

EN

The changes that have taken place in the global economy in recent years have testified to a transformation of an industrial economy into a knowledge-based economy, using technological and innovative potential. This transformation has highlighted the competitive advantages of countries and regions specializing in the production of high-tech products. Innovativeness is considered to be one of the most important factors determining the rate and quality of economic growth. Consequently, highly developed countries are conducting research to seek new sources of innovativeness and methods for creating innovative potential. The key determinants of the innovativeness of an economy are expenditure on research and development and the results of R&D efforts embodied in the form of innovations. The article aims to check a theory by Norwegian economist Jan Fagerberg that the technological potential of an economy, expressed as a relation of R&D expenditure to GDP or as a number of patents per capita, determines positively the rate of GDP growth. In the article, the authors analyze the influence of R&D expenditure on GDP per capita in EU countries in 1999-2008. Panel model estimation methods are used in the research. The results of the analysis show that R&D expenditure determines GDP per capita in the studied countries, the authors conclude.

4

GDP growth as a bank loan quality determinant

80%

Rachuba J.

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

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2020

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issue 2(14)

21-37

EN

Past financial crises and recessions have revealed the importance of the economy’s condition for the loan quality. Macroeconomic determinants of the non-performing loans have been attracting considerable attention in recent years. The aim of this paper is to organize and summarize studies examining the role of GDP growth and its impact on bank loan quality. This approach reveals the research problem which is to specify if there exists a statistically significant relationship between economic growth and the level of non-performing loans. It is equally important to determine the direction of this link. By appealing to common knowledge, the research hypothesis states that an increase in economic activity results in improving loan quality. To verify the hypothesis, the analysis of the relevant literature and the methods of verbal as well as tabular description have been applied. Empirical results on the link between the macroeconomic environment and the level of non-performing loans appear to be quite conclusive. It has been found that an economic expansion generally improves the loan quality. This broadly proven relationship is in line with many studies which confirm the borrowers’ increased willingness to repay debts in a favourable economic environment. Far less frequently, the intensified macroeconomic activity leads to future bank losses. Additionally, some studies do not provide any statistically significant effect of GDP growth on the loan quality.

5

To the Abyss and Beyond

80%

Rusek A.

Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica

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2010

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vol. 241

EN

Abstract. Life cycle hypothesis and Solow neo-classical growth concepts are used to construct and estimate VAR models of USA’s GDP dynamics. Conditional forecasts are then made for those two variables for the next two years, using different assumptions regarding the future dynamics of the household’s net worth. Results show that under all assumptions the US GDP growth GDP remains sluggish. The historical peak GDP level (achieved in Q2 from 2008) is not achieved by the Ql of 2011.

6

Latent factor growth models for forecasting Polish GDP growth, inflation and unemployment using survey data

70%

Białowolski P.

Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

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2015

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vol. 96: Analyzing and forecasting economic fluctuations

69-93

EN

In this paper a novel application of latent factor growth models is applied to responses to the manufacturing industry tendency survey conducted by the Research Institute for Economic Development, Warsaw School of Economics. An approach based on a common factor was assumed to explain variation in time response to specific questions drawn from the survey questionnaire. It was demonstrated that responses to questions relating to general economic situation in Poland, inflation and employment were explained by a latent growth factor, which was confirmed by RMSEA. Using cross-correlation and an ARIMAX model, it was shown that slopes obtained from latent factor growth models could be applied to forecasting or at least nowcasting of GDP growth and unemployment rate. Survey data of the type described clearly offer potential for refinement of economic projections and it is hoped that this work might stimulate further discussion of the methodology based on latent factor growth modeling for forecasting main macroeconomic time series.

7

Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania rozwoju gospodarczego –perspektywa dla Polski 2017–2019

61%

Wieczorek P.

Kontrola Państwowa

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2017

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vol. 62

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issue 6 (377)

107-136

EN

Since the turn of the years 2016 and 2017, many positive signals have come from the economy: the market data clearly show that the process for economic situation reconstruction has been generally successful. Export has been increasing, inflation seems to be under control, the rate of the Polish zloty remains stable, and the economic and financial situation of companies has been improving gradually. This does not mean, however, that in the coming years Poland will be able to develop fast. Besides, the majority of forecasts assume that in 2018 the rate of the gross domestic product may decrease in comparison with 2017, and it is still unknown how the increase curve will develop in the following years. The article attempts to assess the macroeconomic situation of Poland as forecast for 2017 and as foreseen for the years 2018–2019, as well as to analyse the key factors that will influence the prospects of our economy development. In this context, attention has been focused on five issues: investment trends, the role of knowledge and innovation in stimulating economic growth, the structural conditions of the national labour market, the stability of public finance in the perspective of the coming years, and the conditions for business activity in Poland.

8

Makroekonomiczne efekty realizacji Narodowego Planu Rozwoju 2004–2006

61%

Zaleski J., Tomaszewski P.

Studia Regionalne i Lokalne

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2004

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issue 2(16)

57-78

EN

The article describes the forecasts for the 2004-2006 National Development Plan implementation on the performance of Poland's economy up to 2010. The estimations are based on the Polish version of HERMIN model. Several development paths for Poland are predicted upon varying assumptions on the ability to absorb the EU assistance, and varying efficiency of use of those funds. In general, it is demonstrated that Poland's accession to EU will bring a significant economic improvement by increasing GDP growth rate and depressing unemployment rate.

9

Czy wolność gospodarcza wpływa na rozwój społeczny?

61%

Liszatyński D.

Prosopon. Europejskie Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne

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2018

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issue 4(25)

269-278

EN

Social development causes a comprehensive increase in the quality of human capital. It is necessary for the society to achieve a higher civilization level. A sufficient level of national income is needed to achieve it, which will ensure financing of widely available public services. This income can be generated by increasing economic freedom, which affects faster GDP growth. Current researches show that economic freedom also have a positive impact on other indicators of social development, such as education and life expectancy. Higher incomes, generated by a more liberal economy, leads to higher budget income, and thus also to the improvement of the quality of public services.

10

THE IMPACT OF SOME VARIABLES ON THE VAT GAP IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPANY

61%

Majerová I.

Oeconomia Copernicana

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2016

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vol. 7

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issue 3

339-355

EN

One of the most serious problems of fiscal character is the issue of the tax gap. The tax gap is defined as the amount of tax liability faced by taxpayers that is not paid on time. The tax gap comes from three main areas of non-compliance with the tax law – firstly, from underreporting of income, secondly, from underpayment of taxes, and thirdly, from non-filing of returns. The tax evasions in the area of value added tax create one of the largest groups of tax gaps. This article describes the current situation in the field of tax gap in selected countries of the European Union. The aim of this paper is to determine the dependence of the VAT gap on three variables: the Corruption Perception Index CPI, GDP growth rate and the basic VAT rate. The method of regression analysis was used, which was performed on data in the years 2000–2011. Although it could be assumed that tax burden will affect the VAT gap the most, the highest dependence was shown in the case of Corruption Perception Index.

11

Verification of “Too Much Finance” Hypothesis in Central and Eastern European Countries – Empirical Research

51%

Grabowski W., Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz I.

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2019

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vol. 1

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issue 340

115-132

PL

Artykuł poświęcony jest analizie relacji między wskaźnikiem reprezentującym wartość udzielonych kredytów do PKB a wzrostem gospodarczym dla grupy jedenastu krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej. Parametry modelu ekonometrycznego szacowane są za pomocą metody najmniejszych kwadratów oraz uogólnionej metody momentów przy wykorzystaniu estymatora Blundella‑Bonda. Wyniki badania empirycznego pokazują, że cała grupa może być podzielona na trzy jednorodne podgrupy o różnych wartościach optymalnego poziomu wskaźnika krajowego kredytu do PKB. Wyniki oszacowania parametrów modelu paneli pokazują, że Łotwa, Litwa, Estonia i Słowacja prawdopodobnie osiągnęłyby wyższy poziom wzrostu gospodarczego, jeżeli analizowany współczynnik wynosiłby 0,48. W przypadku Polski, Czech i Węgier optymalna wartość analizowanego współczynnika wyniosła 0,6. W przypadku Bułgarii, Chorwacji i Rumunii rozwój systemu finansowego wydaje się nie mieć żadnego wpływu na poziom wzrostu realnego PKB.

EN

This paper analyses the relationship between the domestic credit to GDP ratio and economic growth in a group of 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The parameters of the econometric model used, were estimated using a pooled regression method and the Blundell‑Bond systemic estimator. The results of our empirical investigation show that the entire group can be divided into 3 homogeneous sub‑groups with different values of the optimal level of domestic credit to GDP ratio. Estimation of the parameters with the use of a panel model show that Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Slovakia would probably have reached a higher level of economic growth if the analysed coefficient had been at a level of 0.48. In the case of the sub‑group encompassing Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary, the optimal value of the analysed coefficient turned out to be 0.6. In the case of the Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania sub‑group, the development of the financial system, which is represented in this article by the ratio of domestic credit to GDP, does not seem to have any impact on the rate of growth of real GDP.

12

Podażowe i popytowe źródła wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce i największych krajach Unii Europejskiej w latach 2000–2018

41%

Mucha-Leszko B.

Nierówności społeczne a wzrost gospodarczy

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2020

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issue 61

7-25

PL

Utrzymujące się prawie od dwóch dekad niskie tempo wzrostu gospodarczego w krajach wysoko rozwiniętych powoduje, że autorzy badań naukowych coraz większą wagę przywiązują do analizy źródeł wzrostu PKB w ujęciu podażowym i popytowym. Koncentrują uwagę na poznawaniu przyczyn zróżnicowania krajów pod względem zdolności do wzrostu gospodarczego i na czynnikach spowalniających aktywność gospodarczą oraz procesy konwergencji. Przedmiotem artykułu jest ocena wkładu do wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce i największych krajach UE czynników podażowych i popytowych w latach 2000–2018. W długookresowej analizie zostały wyodrębnione trzy podokresy: 1) 2000–2007 (lata względnie dobrej koniunktury gospodarczej, z wyjątkiem zjawisk recesyjnych – 2001–2003), 2) 2008–2013 (lata recesji i stagnacji gospodarczej) oraz 3) 2014–2018 (lata postkryzysowego ożywienia). Wkład do wzrostu PKB czynników podażowych obejmuje: godziny pracy, jakość pracy, kapitał spoza sektora ICT, kapitał w sektorze ICT i wzrost TFP. Czynniki popytowe ilustrują wkład konsumpcji prywatnej, publicznej, inwestycji i eksportu netto. Krajami odniesienia dla Polski są: Francja, Hiszpania, Niemcy, Wielka Brytania i Włochy. Z analizy wynika, że dynamika gospodarcza Polski w latach 2000–2017 była na tle badanych krajów wysoka, a jej źródła w ujęciu podażowym korzystnie oddziaływały na wzrost wydajności pracy, ale przede wszystkim na TFP. Analiza struktury zagregowanego popytu wskazuje na dominację w Polsce konsumpcji prywatnej w całym okresie badawczym, a wkład inwestycji do wzrostu PKB pozostaje na niskim poziomie od prawie dwóch dekad.

XX

The low rate of economic growth persisting in developed countries for nearly two decades has led researchers to focus on analysing the sources of economic growth from the supply and demand perspective. They concentrate on defining the causes for the differentiation of countries in terms of capacity for economic growth, factors hindering economic activity and convergence. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the contribution of supply and demand factors to economic growth in Poland and the largest EU countries in 2000–2018. The study period was divided into three shorter periods: 1) 2000–2007 (relatively good economic conditions, with the exception of a 2001–2003 recession), 2) 2008–2013 (recession and stagnation), and 3) 2014–2018 (post-crisis revival). Supply-side factors contributing to the GDP growth encompassed: total hours worked, labour quality, non-ICT capital, ICT capital, and TFP growth. Demand-side factors included the inputs of private and public consumption, investment and gross exports. The reference countries for Poland were: France, Spain, Germany, the UK and Italy. The conclusion is that the economic dynamics of Poland in 2000–2017 was relatively high in comparison to the reference countries, and its supply-side sources positively affected the growth in labour productivity and TFP. Analysis of the aggregate demand structure indicated the predominance of private consumption in Poland throughout the research period, while the contribution of investment remained low for nearly two decades.

Refine search results

Gospodarczy wymiar integracji z Unią Europejską – 10 lat członkostwa Polski w UE

High-technology exports and economic growth: panel data analysis for selected OECD countriesHigh-technology exports and economic growth: panel data analysis for selected OECD countries

Nakłady na działalność badawczo-rozwojową a PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej

GDP growth as a bank loan quality determinant

To the Abyss and Beyond

Latent factor growth models for forecasting Polish GDP growth, inflation and unemployment using survey data

Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania rozwoju gospodarczego –perspektywa dla Polski 2017–2019

Makroekonomiczne efekty realizacji Narodowego Planu Rozwoju 2004–2006

Czy wolność gospodarcza wpływa na rozwój społeczny?

THE IMPACT OF SOME VARIABLES ON THE VAT GAP IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPANY

Verification of “Too Much Finance” Hypothesis in Central and Eastern European Countries – Empirical Research

Podażowe i popytowe źródła wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce i największych krajach Unii Europejskiej w latach 2000–2018