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Skutki potencjalnej liberalizacji światowego handlu rolnego dla sektora rolno-żywnościowego państw ASEAN

100%
Pawlak K., Kita K.
International Business and Global Economy
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2014
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vol. Volume 33
273–284
EN
The aim of this paper is to present the possibilities of development of trade, production, demand, and prices in agri-food sector of the ASEAN countries in view of changes caused by implementation of the new agricultural agreement negotiated under the WTO auspices. A general equilibrium model Global Trade Analysis Project was used in the research to make ex ante projections. Based on the GTAP simulation it can be concluded that having cost-price advantage and taking advantage of freer access to the markets of the highly developed countries, the ASEAN nations may increase the volume of agricultural production and export. In consequence, they may benefit from the liberalization.
2
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Wpływ redukcji ceł na towary nierolne w rundzie Doha na handel zagraniczny Polski

100%
Hagemejer J., Kaliszuk E.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2007
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vol. 216
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issue 5-6
61-83
EN
The paper examines the effects of a multilateral reduction of customs duties on non-agricultural goods, under a “nonlinear Swiss formula,” on Poland’s foreign trade, including both exports and imports. As part of the Doha Development Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO), countries are trying to work out a mathematical formula according to which national customs tariffs would be reduced. This is the key focus of ongoing negotiations concerning Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA). The author analyzes the newest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), known as GTAP 6.0, according to four scenarios. The GTAP model is a multiregional, multi-sector model that is often used to study the effects of commercial policy. The author describes the results of the multilateral negotiations according to their state as of the end of August 2006. The scenarios analyzed by the author differ in terms of “reduction coefficient A” under the Swiss formula. However, in all variants, the coefficient for developed countries is lower than that for developing countries. The analysis shows that the reduction of customs duties will have a limited impact on Poland’s foreign trade. All scenarios point to a small increase in the volume of exports and an insignificant drop in the volume of imports, accompanied by a rise in import prices and a decline of export prices. The deterioration of the country’s terms of trade is the most visible in the most radical scenario. The European Union as a whole would be more visibly affected than Poland by the planned reduction of customs duties. Similarly, the move would lead to limited changes in the overall volume of industrial production in Poland, though, in terms of individual sectors, there will probably be a clear drop in the production of clothing, textiles and leather goods, accompanied by a small increase in output in the wood industry. Changes in the volume of trade, production and employment are the most visible in the radical scenario. In all options, the reduction of customs duties will have no perceptible influence on Poland’s gross domestic product, though GDP in purchasing power parity terms will decrease as a result of deteriorated terms of trade. There will be a marginal deterioration in the overall level of prosperity in Polish society. This will be due to the fact that the drop in terms of trade will outweigh the increase of consumer surplus.
3
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Sektor rolno-spożywczy Chin w świetle liberalizacji światowego handlu rolnego – wyniki symulacji w warunkach równowagi ogólnej

89%
Kita K.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2017
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vol. 319
70-81
PL
W artykule przedstawiono stan i możliwe scenariusze rozwoju wymiany handlowej, produkcji, popytu i cen w sektorze rolno-spożywczym Chin w warunkach implementacji nowego porozumienia rolnego wynegocjowanego pod auspicjami WTO. Analizę ex ante wykonano przy wykorzystaniu matematycznego modelu równowagi ogólnej Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), a projekcje przeprowadzono w dwóch wariantach symulacyjnych różniących się zakresem liberalizacji handlu rolnego. Rezultaty analizy dowiodły, że nasilenie tendencji zmierzających do uwolnienia światowego handlu rolnego może spowodować między innymi wzrost wartości eksportu i importu większości produktów rolno-spożywczych w Chinach oraz wzrost popytu i spadek cen na te towary.
EN
The article presents the state and possible scenarios for the development of trade, production, demand and prices in the agri-food sector in China in terms of implementation of the new agricultural agreement negotiated under the auspices of the WTO. An ex-ante analysis was carried out with the use of mathematical model of general equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The projections were made in two variants differing the scope of liberalization of agricultural trade. The results of the analysis showed that the intensification of the trend leading to the liberalization of agricultural trade may provoke, inter alia, an increase in the value of exports and imports of most agri-food products in China and a growth in demand and fall in prices for these goods as well.
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