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Łączenie metod ilościowych i jakościowych na przykładzie regionalnego foresightu energetycznego

100%

Ropuszyńska-Surma E.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

2014

issue 4(46)

135-150

Regional and sectorial strategies should take into consideration, inter alia, stakeholders’ needs and potential problems in the future (e.g. lack of energy security). In this situation, there is often necessity to select key technologies for a region or a sector. The problem is what kind of methods are used to select needed technologies and to point out visions, which are linked to these technologies, of region or sector development. The issue is shown in this article basing on the project called ”Energy Development Strategy of Lower Silesia by Using Foresight Methods”. The paper presents the procedure of the selection of theses which are studied by Delphi methods. The results of this research addressed to selected theses are shown briefly. Also there is shown limited usage of technological foresight basing on S-shape curves (logistic curves and Gompert’s method). In connection to these functions there is presented a substitution between conventional technologies of electricity production and renewable energy sources technologies. The results of qualitative methods and Delphi method are compared. Basing on this, the limits of the implementation of qualitative methods as well as the necessity to compare the results of two methods: experts’ one and qualitative one are shown. In other words, the combining of methods is recommended during foresight research.

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1 Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

1 Ropuszyńska-Surma E.

1 2014

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Łączenie metod ilościowych i jakościowych na przykładzie regionalnego foresightu energetycznego