The changes in money market rates and the profitability of Treasury securities cause reaction of not only banks but also the Co-operative Savings & Credit Unions (PCU). The article analyzes the conditions of changes in interest rates of deposits in PCU. They may change deposit interest rates in case of changes of: National Association of Co-operative Savings & Credit Unions' interest rates, interest rates in banks, the National Bank of Poland base rates, the money rates in the interbank market, yields of Treasury securities and inflation. Using the statistical material collected in years 2005-2008 the strong positive dependence between the investigated determinants and the credit unions' deposit interest rates was confirmed.
The effect of a zero bound in nominal interest rates is one of the challenges that low inflation poses for monetary policy. The central bank is unable to enforce the lowering of the real interest rates, which is necessary if a country is to combat recession, when the nominal interest rates are already very low. The simplest method to avoid the problems caused by the existence of zero bound on nominal interest rates is the maintenance of low inflation rate (2 to 3 %) and its stabilization in the vicinity of inflation target. The central bank should take good care to ensure that the monetary policy guarantees continuation and transparency. In case the zero bound effect takes place, the central bank can resort to apply a wide variety of non-standard instruments. Efficacy of these instruments depends strongly on recession causes and on the specificity of a given economy. It may turn out that negative effects of certain instruments might overshadow the expected benefits.
This article examines the long run relationship between economic growth and stock prices for Canada and the United States through cointegration estimation procedure, and it implements the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to abstract simultaneously the short- and long-run information in the modelling process. The results from the cointegration tests reveal that economic growth and stock prices share long run equilibrium relationship for both Canada and the U.S. The results from the VECM indicate that for the U.S., causality runs from economic growth to stock prices but not vice versa. However for Canada, the results reveal that there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and stock prices.
The decisions of banks about the yields on their assets and liabilities have an impact on the expenditure and investment behavior of deposit holders and borrowers and hence, on the real economy. This paper analyses the interest rate pass-through in Hungary, with the help of ECM and TAR models, using both aggregated and bank level data. According to the linear ECM results, the corporate loan market, which is characterised by the strongest competition, adjusts its rates fully and quickly to the short-term money market rate. The adjustment of deposit rates and household loan rates is characterised by incompleteness and/or sluggishness. The paper also focuses on the potential non-linearities of banks' pricing by TAR models. The results suggest that the speed of adjustment of bank rates depends on the size of the changes in the money market rate and the distance of bank rates from their long-term equilibrium level. The sign of yield shocks and the volatility of the market rate also turn out to be influential to the speed of adjustment.
Money market funds, as their name indicates, were invested originally on the money market, in short term deposits or other financial instruments with equivalent types of interest, so that the interest risk 'should' be minimal. However, sizeable falls in the prices of these funds too have resulted from the series of interest rate rises since the autumn of 2003, so that they have come to resemble short term bond funds, rather than money market funds. The analysis compares the interest risk assumed by the forint based money market funds and the performance attained in the period between January 1, 2003 and October 5, 2005. It is found that the interest risk of the money market funds shows a very wide dispersion, with some varying over time as well, and others whose scale of risk means they cannot be classed as money market funds at all. There is also a significant spread found in the performance of certain funds compared with the reference portfolio.
Analysis based on reaction functions, a popular tool in monetary policy, can be used for two purposes: on the one hand, they can provide a reference value for the actual interest-rate level, and on the other, they allow characterization of the relationship between interest rates and other macro variables. This study discusses both issues for Hungary in the recent period of inflation targeting. Overall it can be concluded that the Taylor rule fits the Hungarian interest rate series well, although taking into account the openness of the economy, this fit can be improved further by using other reaction functions. Significant deviations of the actual interest rate from the levels implied by reaction functions can be explained by the presence of the exchange-rate band or by swings of the risk premium. With the relationship between interest rates and other macro variables, the role of the output gap in determining interest rates seems insignificant. The effect of inflationary expectations and the exchange rate turns out to be significant, and their relationship with interest rates is similar to those found in other countries. When inflation expectations are higher, interest rates increase more. The role of the exchange rate depends on the time horizon: at monthly frequency, interest rates are sensitive to exchange-rate changes. But at quarterly frequency, which is closer to the central bank's policy horizon, the exchange rate only has an indirect effect on interest rates through its effect on inflationary expectations.
The study examines what effects various interest rates have on the price level and nominal prices in an open (primarily small) economy with free flows of capital. A closed economy calls for a distinction only between nominal and real rates of interest, but in an open economy, questions of interest-rate parity have to be considered as well. It is necessary to clarify the factors behind the real interest rate important for price-level pass-through and for the scale of risk premium. Analysis of interest-rate effects begins with the mechanism whereby the interest rate influences the cost of fixed assets (explicit or implicit rents). Secondly, the mechanism behind the relation of export-sector production decisions and domestic interest rates is examined. It emerges that decisions of the export sector are independent of domestic interest rates. Thirdly, certain types of pricing behaviour are studied. It is shown that a rise in the interest rate that does not alter the present exchange rate is a price-raising factor for the importing country. It can be assumed that if the interest rate has a demand effect in a closed economy, this will presumably be much weaker in a small open economy.
The structure of Lviv region banking sector has been described, the estimation of long-term loans volume and dynamics during 2000-2007 years has been carried out, and main trends of long-term bank crediting development in the region have been determined.
After introduction of Euro since January 2009 the Slovak Republic does not perform its independent monetary policy but is affected by the Euro area policy including common interest rates. Interbank interest rate is considered as a proxy-variable aggregating overall monetary policy setting. The objective of the paper is to evaluate compatibility of the Euro area interest rates with macroeconomic situation in Slovakia. In other words, the key question is whether common interest rates respond sufficiently to inflation gap, output gap or other indicators. Reaction function is estimated via linear regression with the Newey-West approach for the pre-Euro period as well as Euro period in the Slovak Republic. Results demonstrate that the Euro area interbank interest rates did not react sufficiently neither to Slovak inflation nor output gap. These led to extremely low inflation during last month approaching the critical point of deflation with possible negative impacts on Slovak economy.
The European Central Bank started to stimulate European economies in 2009 since the countries of the European Union have been facing a low growth and low inflation after both the global financial and sovereign debt crisis. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of very low and negative interest rates on the financial position of manufacturing firms in the Slovak Republic using the balance sheet channel. The results confirm that firm-specific determinants affect the capital structure of firms. When assessing the impact of monetary policy on the financial structure in the environment of low interest rates, our findings support the existence of the balance sheet channel in the Slovak Republic, which is apparent in short-term structure.
This paper explores factors that drive government yield spreads of EU countries’ bonds issued between 2000 and 2012. Using panel regression, it identifies three factors: a country specific factor related to country’s default risk, a common factor related to general risk aversion premium, and a liquidity factor. It compares bond pricing before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008, bond pricing of the euro area member states with countries outside of the monetary union and in particular contrasts pricing of these two groups of countries before and after the crisis.
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