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EN
The aim of the article is to assess the impact of the euro adoption on the inflation level in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The hypothesis was adopted that the average price level increase - within the framework of the inflation targeting – is a fixed element of the monetary policy of all central banks, including the European Central Bank. If, after the introduction of a single currency, the rate of inflation is close to the inflation target, then the common monetary policy brings positive effects, and the excessive price increase is only an illusion. As a result of the review of the literature, as well as the analysis of statistical data, it was found that in some of the surveyed countries (Estonia and Slovenia), in the first years after the adoption of the single currency, the price rose above the ECB inflation target, however, this result cannot be attributed solely to the introduction of the single currency (euro). The occurring level of inflation, which is contained in the inflation target of the central bank is acceptable, because its impact on the conomy is positive. The discrepancy between perceived infl ation and its actual level in the new euro area member states may also result from the experience of countries in which – as a result of the price rounding effects – there was an increase in the prices of some consumer goods.
EN
This research study investigated the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Nigeria and Mexico from 1991-2016. Secondary data were used to gather data from the World Bank database, Central Bank of Nigeria and Bank of Mexico. In order to determine the set objective, OLS and simple regression analysis of the econometric model were used. The models specified inflation as function unemployment, money supply % GDP, total Gross Formation Products. Based on the above test carried out, the study finds out that: Inflation significantly has little impact on unemployment in Nigeria both in the long – run and short – run within the period under review. In Mexico, there is actually no significant relationship between unemployment and inflation because when inflation is high, unemployment in Mexico is also high. The study shows that investors have an inverse relationship with unemployment in Mexico. There is also an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP in Mexico and Nigeria. And in regard to the findings above the study recommends that the government should use discretionary policy that would reduce unemployment by boosting the level of investment and maintaining stability in the money sup-ply as it had a positive impact on Inflation in the long run. Friedman is of the view that the increase in government spending and the rate at which economy borrows, the higher the inflation. Inflation, Unemployment, Philips Curve, Nigeria and Mexic W badaniu tym zbadano związek między bezrobociem a inflacją w Nigerii i Meksyku w latach 1991–2016. Dane wtórne wykorzystano do zebrania danych z bazy danych Banku Światowego, Banku Centralnego Nigerii i Banku Meksyku. W celu określenia ustalonego celu zastosowano OLS i analizę regresji prostej modelu ekonometrycznego. Modele określały inflację jako bezrobocie funkcji, podaż pieniądza% PKB, całkowite produkty formacji brut-to. W oparciu o powyższy test przeprowadzony w badaniu okazuje się, że: Inflacja w niewielkim stopniu wpływa na bezrobocie w Nigerii zarówno w perspektywie długoterminowej, jak i krótkoterminowej w badanym okresie. W Meksyku nie ma istotnego związku między bezrobociem a inflacją, ponieważ gdy inflacja jest wysoka, bezrobocie w Meksyku jest również wysokie. Z badania wynika, że inwestycje mają odwrotny związek z bezrobociem w Meksyku. Istnieje również odwrotna zależność między inflacją a PKB w Meksyku i Nigerii. W odniesieniu do powyższych ustaleń badanie zaleca, aby rząd wykorzystał politykę uznaniową, która zmniejszyłaby bezrobocie, zwiększając poziom inwestycji i utrzymując stabilność podaży pieniądza, ponieważ wywarła ona pozytywny wpływ na inflację w perspektywie długoterminowej. Friedman jest zdania, że wzrost wydatków rządowych i tempo, w jakim gospodarka pożycza, tym wyższa inflacja. Inflacja, Bezrobocie, Philips Curve, Nigeria i Meksyk
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EN
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy in preventing financial crises and offsetting their implications. The paper provides a critical evaluation of views on the relationship between monetary policy and financial crises. The author looks at this issue in the context of practical experiences, especially those coming from the U.S. market, where the analyzed ties seem to be the most prominent. The author concludes that a monetary policy exclusively focused on the prices of goods and services and oriented toward keeping inflation in check in the short term, may create an environment conducive to the outbreak of a financial crisis. The probability of such a situation is especially high if the financial market is heavily liberalized and poorly supervised, Koronowski says. However, the main conclusion is that a financial crisis may be prompted by an excessive, prolonged increase in the liquidity of the banking sector after a decline in financial stability or as a result of failed central bank attempts to stimulate credit expansion and economic growth. Yet another conclusion is that monetary policy must be stable not only in terms of inflation, but also in terms of the price of money, Koronowski says. This is indispensable for a healthy financial sector and robust economic growth, the author adds.
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EN
The paper discusses the key aspects of research on a modern monetary policy rule proposed by American economist John B. Taylor in 1993. The Taylor rule stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual GDP from potential GDP and divergences of actual rates of inflation from a target rate of inflation. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (a "tight" monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate ("easy" monetary policy) in the opposite situations. Baranowski discusses many aspects of the Taylor rule, including the type of interest rates subject to analysis; the need to use real-time data; additional variables that may influence interest rates; the method of measuring variables; and the stability of the analyzed parameters. The paper also shows how the Taylor rule is used in practice. The rule can be used to analyze monetary policy, make international comparisons, and forecast interest rates. It can be an important component of both theoretical and empirical economic models, the author says.
EN
The study of price increases in five countries (Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) aimed to assess the introduction of the single currency (euro) on the rate of HICP inflation in two short-term perspectives: after the first month and after the first year of the introduction of the euro in these countries. The following hypothesis was put forward: prices after the introduction of the euro are contained in the inflation target, that is, there can be no substantial increase, and contrasting views on the issue are only an effect of illusion, that is, the difference between actual and perceived inflation level. The research was carried out using the comparative method. They show that the inflation effect in the euro-adopting countries was clearly convergent with the level of price growth recorded at the same time in other European Union countries, including those already with a single currency. The result is that the reasons for excessive price growth in the short-term perspective should not be sought in connection with the introduction of the euro, but rather explained by e.g. the convergence of business cycles with these euro area countries in which HICP inflation target exceedance was recorded at the same time. There can be also any other conditions that affect price growth in all European countries, regardless of whether they belong to euro area or have its national currencies.
EN
The article deals with the problem of a measurement bias related to the consumer price index (CPI) for Poland. According to the authors, the bias is due to two basic factors: a substitution effect and the use of plutocratic weights for calculating the price index. The research was conducted comparing the CPI index published in Poland with superlative indices and a democratic index. The calculations were made on the basis of data from the 2005-2009 period. The research did not confirm the occurrence of an upward bias for the CPI index, the authors say, and the results point to a slight underestimation of the CPI as a result of the substitution effect and the use of plutocratic weights: by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. The negative bias resulting from the substitution effect is an atypical result in the context of research for other countries. A deeper analysis revealed that this situation may be explained in two ways, the authors say. On the one hand, the lack of overestimation may be due to frequent changes in the structure of weights used to calculate the CPI, which leads to better adaptation of the indicator to changes taking place in the structure of consumption. On the other hand, the prices of consumer goods and services-which are subject to relatively stable demand-grew at a faster rate than the CPI index in the analyzed period, and a positive rate of growth has been observed in real household incomes over the past decade. In turn, the examination of the “plutocratic gap” revealed that the CPI (plutocratic) index for Poland is lower than the democratic index, the authors say. They conclude that the result of the examination of the “plutocratic gap” is compatible with research for other countries.
EN
The paper describes a wide range of approaches to what is known as a perception gap among consumers in the European Union after most member countries switched to the single European currency in 2002. The author focuses on issues linked with the consumer theory, analyzing why consumers are unable to properly estimate the value of inflation-in terms of its compatibility withtheHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), an inflation and price stability indicator used by the European Central Bank. The first part of the paper outlines research theories related to the perception gap. These include the theories of limited rationality and rational passivity, in addition to behavioral economics and neuroeconomics. The second part of the paper discusses factors behind the perception of inflation, taking into account theoretical discussions conducted as part of various scientific disciplines. This approach is designed to show the state of debate on the perception of inflation and stress the growing role of heterodox approaches in contemporary economics, Mucha says.
EN
This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation rate in Indonesia. This research uses the error correction model for estimating the empirical model of inflation rate for annual data 1970-2017. The results present the significant effects of fiscal and monetary variables on the inflation rate. These findings reveal the inflationary effects of fiscal and monetary policies in the country. This research also finds the impact of output and exchange rate on inflation rate. Therefore, this paper supports the theory of demand-pull inflation as well as the proposition of imported inflation. The other uniqueness of this research is the inclusion of shock variables in the empirical model. This study asserts the significant role of inflation shock and unanticipated exchange rate on the domestic price level. It implies that domestic inflation is closely related to the international financial sector.
EN
This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-to-GDP ratio would increase by about 5 percentage points during that period. In contrast, raising inflation to 6 percent for the next five years would reduce the average net debtto-GDP ratio by about 11 percentage points under the full Fisher effect and about 14- percentage points under the partial Fisher effect. Thus higher inflation could help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio somewhat in advanced economies. However, it could hardly solve the debt problem on its own and would raise significant challenges and risks. First of all, it may be difficult to create higher inflation, as evidenced by Japan’s experience in the last few decades. In addition, an unanchoring of inflation expectations could increase long-term real interest rates, distort resource allocation, reduce economic growth, and hurt the lower–income households.
EN
Aim/purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between financial strength and policy outcomes of central banks in Africa. This is against the background of challenging policy tasks facing African central banks and the fact that they increasingly have to respond to occurrences that stem from the volatile global financial system. Design/methodology/approach – Three panel regression models were developed and estimated to capture the effects of the financial strength of the central banks of ten selected countries on their inflation outcomes, official exchange rate, and interest rate. Annual data derived from the balance sheets of ten African central banks as well as macroeconomic variables from World Development Indicators for the period 2000-2014 were used for the empirical analysis. Findings – This study found out that: central bank financial strength is not a significant determinant of inflation outcomes in African countries; central bank financial strength has a significant impact on the determination of official exchange rate in Africa; and central bank financial strength is not a significant factor in the determination of interest rates by central banks in Africa. Research implications/limitations – A major implication is that central bank financial strength is necessary for result-oriented exchange rate policy in African countries. However, studies employing other estimation methods may make for more robust results. Also, the inclusion of central banks that report the results of their operations in other languages apart from English may make for better generalization. Originality/value/contribution – This study is unique in that it has focused exclusively on central banks of countries in Africa. It has also added value by considering the effect of central bank financial strength not only on inflation, but also on exchange rate and interest rate which are issues of serious concern in developing countries.
EN
Aim/purpose – Web-scraping is a technique used to automatically extract data from websites. After the rise-up of online shopping, it allows the acquisition of information about prices of goods sold by retailers such as supermarkets or internet shops. This study examines the possibility of using web-scrapped data from one clothing store. It aims at comparing known price index formulas being implemented to the web-scraping case and verifying their sensitivity on the choice of data filter type. Design/methodology/approach – The author uses the price data scrapped from one of the biggest online shops in Poland. The data were obtained as part of eCPI (electronic Consumer Price Index) project conducted by the National Bank of Poland. The author decided to select three types of products for this analysis – female ballerinas, male shoes, and male oxfords to compare their prices in over one-year time period. Six price indexes were used for calculation – The Jevons and Dutot indexes with their chain and GEKS (acronym from the names of creators – Gini–Éltető–Köves–Szulc) versions. Apart from the analysis conducted on a full data set, the author introduced filters to remove outliers. Findings – Clothing and footwear are considered one of the most difficult groups of goods to measure price change indexes due to high product churn, which undermines the possibility to use the traditional Jevons and Dutot indexes. However, it is possible to use chained indexes and GEKS indexes instead. Still, these indexes are fairly sensitive to large price changes. As observed in case of both product groups, the results provided by the GEKS and chained versions of indexes were different, which could lead to conclusion that even though they are lending promising results, they could be better suited for other COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose) groups. Research implications/limitations – The findings of the paper showed that usage of filters did not significantly reduce the difference between price indexes based on GEKS and chain formulas. Originality/value/contribution – The usage of web-scrapped data is a fairly new topic in the literature. Research on the possibility of using different price indexes provides useful insights for future usage of these data by statistics offices.
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Československé státovky tzv. I. emise

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EN
The text deals with the forming process of the Czechoslovakian currency in period after the declaration of Czechoslovakian independent state in 1918. The healthy Czechoslovak currency could be established thanks to capable Czechoslovak finance minister Dr. Alois Rašín by seclusion from the inflationary Austrian-Hungarian currency. Between 1919 and 1920 the first nine denominations of the first issued bank notes were printed in various print houses, issued and named the Czechoslovak koruna (Crown, Kč). The study widely describes problems related to security of the paper notes.
EN
The authors describe a combination of factors that have influenced economic growth in Ireland. The study relies on description methods, tabular analysis and synthesis. Ireland joined the European Community in 1973, but the first few years of membership brought no major benefits for the country. This means that European Community membership alone was not enough to spur the Irish economy, Heller and Ewertowska note. In the initial period after joining the European Community, Ireland experienced stagnation and a regression that eventually led to stagflation, an extremely dangerous trend that lasted from 1981 to 1983. It was not until 1984 that the Irish government brought inflation under control and kept in check effectively for many years. This successful campaign against inflation was the first macroeconomic development that laid the groundwork for sustained economic growth in Ireland, the authors say. In 1987-1997 four social partnership agreements were made in Ireland. The reforms combined neoliberal concepts with state intervention. The government streamlined expenditure, reduced the budget deficit and public debt, accelerated privatization, and reduced the rate at which pay grew, in addition to cutting non-wage labor costs. At the same time, the government offered tax breaks and preferential treatment to investors in selected industries and it also granted subsidies to those providing employee training and retraining programs. These measures were supported by an inflow of foreign direct investment and funds from European Union coffers. All these efforts were oriented toward structural changes in the infrastructure sector and the economy as a whole. As a result, Ireland stopped being a poor and backward country that it was when it joined the European Community in 1973. It grew into one of the wealthiest countries in the EU. In 1973, Ireland’s GDP per capita was just 64 percent of the EC average. In 2005, the country’s GDP per capita accounted for 139 percent of the EU average and was the second-highest in the EU after that of Luxembourg. The main source of Ireland’s success story has been the country’s ability to skillfully combine market (neoliberal) mechanisms with state intervention, Heller and Ewertowska say. This means that Ireland is not a liberal country according to the definition used in classical economics, the authors conclude.
XX
Wyniki badań nad polityką pieniężną w strefie euro wykazują, że teza monetarystów o inflacji, jako rosnącej funkcji podaży pieniądza w obiegu, nie znajduje potwierdzenia. Natomiast lepszym sposobem prognozowania inflacji w strefie euro może być np. monitorowanie luki produkcyjnej. W artykule do obliczenia luki produkcyjnej został użyty oficjalnie publikowany przez Komisję Europejską wskaźnik wykorzystania mocy produkcyjnych w przemyśle, opisujący agregat 12 krajów eurosystemu.
EN
The author of the article tries to verify an impact of production gap on inflation. The analyses was conducted on the basis of utilisation indicator of capacity production in industry sector, published by the European Commission, describing aggregate of 12 countries of the Euro system. In the period of 1st quarter of 1991 - 2nd quarter of 2003 an impact of gap production on basic inflation was statistically explained. To analyse a basic inflation a Stiglitz's conception with concave curve of Philiphs was used. Received results of estimation suggest that during the phase of economic animation in the Euro zone an acceleration of basic inflation be noticed. In culminating points of business cycle a basic inflation is decayed. In the surveyed period a statistically essential impact of production gap on inflation measured by harmonised price index of goods and services was not observed.
XX
Inflacja jest procesem ciągłego wzrostu ogólnego poziomu cen. Stopień ogólności definicji owego procesu jest dosyć duży, nie ma zatem wśród ekonomistów zgody, jak należałoby go mierzyć w praktyce. Najczęściej stosowaną miarą, choć niedoskonałą, jest wskaźnik cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych (CPI). Jedną z wad tego wskaźnika jest brak odporności na przejściowe szoki, np. o charakterze sezonowym. Dlatego na podstawie CPI konstruowane są miary tzw. inflacji bazowej, eliminującej tę wadę. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie podstawowych własności statystycznych szeregów czasowych inflacji mierzonej bezpośrednio CPI, a także własności pięciu miar inflacji bazowej. Analizowany jest również związek pomiędzy poziomem inflacji a jej zmiennością, roczny schemat przebiegu inflacji w ujęciu miesiąc do miesiąca, a także badana jest stacjonarność szeregów czasowych. Dokonano ponadto oceny wskaźników inflacji bazowej. Najlepszą miarą okazała się inflacja bazowa po wyłączeniu cen o największej zmienności.
EN
Inflation is a process of a continuous increase in general level of prices. Because of high degree of the definition's generality there is no agreement among economists how it should be measured. The most popular measure of inflation, although not perfect, is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). One of CPI disadvantages is its unrobustness to the temporary shocks e.g. seasonal shocks. For that reason different indicators of so-called core inflation, which reflects long-term inflationary trend, are being developed. The aim of the paper is to look at the statistical properties of inflation measured by CPI and different core inflation indicators. We establish some seasonal patterns of monthly inflation, the relationship between inflation level and volatility and test for stationarity of inflation time series. The last part of the text is devoted to evaluate core inflation indicators. We find that the best indicator is the one which excludes the most volatile prices from CPI.
XX
Teoria ekonomii sugeruje, że inflacja może wywierać wpływ na wzrost gospodarczy oraz jego najważniejszy czynnik - inwestycje w kapitał rzeczowy. Większość teorii przewiduje wpływ negatywny. Znaleźć można kilka argumentów na rzecz odmiennego kierunku wpływu. Wydaje się, że jego kierunek zależy od poziomu inflacji. Jeżeli przyjmiemy, że w przypadku wysokiej inflacji przeważa wpływ negatywny, a w wypadku niskiej - pozytywny, wówczas otrzymujemy niemonotoniczną zależność pomiędzy wzrostem gospodarczym a inflacją. Zależność ta pozwala znaleźć maksimum, które należy interpretować jako stopę inflacji optymalną dla wzrostu gospodarczego. W artykule przedstawiono szacunki optymalnej stopy inflacji na podstawie jednorównaniowego modelu ekonometrycznego. Obliczona optymalna stopa inflacji wynosi ok. 6%. (abstrakt oryginalny)
XX
Instytucje międzynarodowe jak EUROSTAT, Europejski Bank Centralny, OECD zalecają korygowanie danych inflacyjnych. Z inicjatywy EUROSTAT-u powstał program Demetra, który umożliwia oczyszczanie szeregów z sezonowości z wykorzystaniem pakietów X-12-ARIMA oraz TRAMO-SEATS. W artykule przedstawiono badanie mające na celu wykorzystanie obu tych pakietów do skorygowania sezonowości w polskich danych inflacyjnych za okres od lutego 1991 do maja 2004.
EN
The Central and Eastern European countries were hit by severe devastation and destruction caused by World War II. Besides war damages, Eastern Europe also suffered from a general shortage of basic foodstuffs and commodities. Economic recovery in the defeated countries of the region (Hungary, Bulgaria, East Germany, and Romania) was hindered by war reparations. The Soviets used reparation payments as a political tool to destroy the economic pillars of the independence of Central and Eastern Europe. After World War II, most industrial equipment and machinery were dismantled and shipped to the USSR as war booty. The paper’s objective is to analyse the background of financial reconstruction in Central and Eastern Europe after 1945 by considering the burdens of war reparations and the financial obligations of the defeated countries in the region. Besides war costs, a significant part of the national resources and income were destroyed. The collapse of production, the shortage of goods, and at the same time, the increase in money in circulation have served as a favourable situation for accelerating inflation. Reparations diverted substantial resources from the financial reconstruction after the initial postwar period. The assumption of the essay is that both excessive reparation burdens and arbitrary deliveries to the Soviet Union contributed to the rising level of inflation and the paralysis of economic activity in many countries, including the Soviet occupation zone of Germany, Hungary, and Romania. Inflation accelerated everywhere, but there were significant differences. Various attempts were made in each country to roll back inflation and financial stabilisation. In parallel with the introduction of financial reconstruction in the countries of the region, the main reasons for hyperinflation in Hungary will be analysed based on the data from archives and relevant literature overview. In the spring and summer of 1946, one of the most ferocious inflations in the world raged in Hungary. Solving the hyperinflation process contained numerous elements, so people recognised the significance of inflation events in Hungarian money history from the aspect of money theory. So, not only was the extent of the Hungarian depreciation regarded and is regarded now to be unique in the world, but economic experts also mentioned the prepared stabilisation beyond inflationary circumstances and the executed stabilisation from ordinary resources, the establishment of a stable currency, the forint, as a “miracle”.
PL
Polscy marginaliści w okresie dwudziestolecia międzywojennego nie podchodzili w sposób bezkrytyczny do fisherowskiej wersji teorii ilościowej pieniądza. Odmienne spojrzenie na pieniądz i jego istotę oraz na politykę pieniężną wynikało z problemów, z którymi borykała się polska gospodarka w omawianym okresie.
EN
Polish marginalism in the interwar period was marked by originality and independence from West-European patterns. The Polish followers of marginalism took into account the specific political and economic experience of newly-reborn Polish state and they paid careful attention to practical aspects of economic life, including an exceptional role of money and monetary policy.
EN
As a result of subprime crisis, most major developed countries are at extraordinarily high debt levels. Some of them reached the level of public debt close to 100% of GDP. An additional problem is usually sustaining high level of budget deficit. Extreme imbalance of public budget can trigger the new crisis of the unprecedented scale. To solve the problem, governments could try to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by holding debt constant and stimulating increase of GDP. However, it would require dramatic, socially and politically unacceptable austerity measures. The additional difficulty here is that GDP drops along with spending, so the economy as a whole shrinks and the debt-to-GDP ratio may not improve in that case. Eventually, austerity programs implemented so far have not brought the expected results. The alternative to austerity plans emergency exit could become "financial repression". It relies on inflation, but it is a steady, stealthy process and therefore much more politically acceptable. By keeping interest rates low, governments receive cheap funding. On one hand, higher inflation will lead to faster nominal GDP growth and on the other, it will liquidate the size of the government debt burden by an amount equal to the negative real interest rate (impairing private savings at the same time). The paper presents the principle of "financial repression" and, on the basis of simulations, demonstrates its effectiveness. (original abstract)
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