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Olsztyn Economic Journal
|
2019
|
vol. 14
|
issue 2
165-177
EN
The interest rate is the basic instrument of monetary policy, directly or indirectly affecting basic macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, unemployment and economic growth. The aim of the article is to compare the NBP reference rate with hypothetical rates calculated on the basis of different variants of the Taylor rule and to indicate which of those variants is best suited to the situation in Poland. The study period of 2000-2017 was adopted for the analysis. On its basis, it was found that in most cases the real interest rate of the central bank in Poland strongly coincided with rates that would have been set if one of the varieties of the Taylor rule had been in force. The best match coincided with the modified version of this rule, which was created after the economic crisis. That means that the NBP took into account both the deviations of inflation from the target and the GDP gap when making decisions regarding interest rates.
PL
Stopy procentowe są ważnym wskaźnikiem branym pod uwagę przy ocenie efektywności i stabilności inwestycji na rynku finansowym. Modele wykorzystujące krzywą dochodowości są narzędziami pomocnymi przy ocenie kształtowania stóp procentowych. Jednak występuje problem z wyborem optymalnego sposobu oszacowania krzywej dochodowości. W artykule zestawiono najczęściej stosowane sposoby modelowania krzywej, czyli model Nelsona i Siegela oraz model Svenssona, z alternatywnym sposobem konstrukcji krzywej dochodowości - z konstrukcją krzywej swapowej.
EN
The interest rates are an important indicator taken into account when assessing the effectiveness and sustainability of investments in the financial market. Models using the yield curve are tools to be helpful in assessing the shaping of interest rates. However, there is a problem with the choice of the optimal method of estimating the yield curve. In this article we collate the most commonly used methods for modeling the curve, i.e. the model of Nelson and Siegel's and Svensson's model with the alternative construction of the yield curve - with the construction of the swap curve.
3
100%
PL
Ryzyko stopy procentowej w przedsiębiorstwie niefinansowym
EN
Aim/purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between financial strength and policy outcomes of central banks in Africa. This is against the background of challenging policy tasks facing African central banks and the fact that they increasingly have to respond to occurrences that stem from the volatile global financial system. Design/methodology/approach – Three panel regression models were developed and estimated to capture the effects of the financial strength of the central banks of ten selected countries on their inflation outcomes, official exchange rate, and interest rate. Annual data derived from the balance sheets of ten African central banks as well as macroeconomic variables from World Development Indicators for the period 2000-2014 were used for the empirical analysis. Findings – This study found out that: central bank financial strength is not a significant determinant of inflation outcomes in African countries; central bank financial strength has a significant impact on the determination of official exchange rate in Africa; and central bank financial strength is not a significant factor in the determination of interest rates by central banks in Africa. Research implications/limitations – A major implication is that central bank financial strength is necessary for result-oriented exchange rate policy in African countries. However, studies employing other estimation methods may make for more robust results. Also, the inclusion of central banks that report the results of their operations in other languages apart from English may make for better generalization. Originality/value/contribution – This study is unique in that it has focused exclusively on central banks of countries in Africa. It has also added value by considering the effect of central bank financial strength not only on inflation, but also on exchange rate and interest rate which are issues of serious concern in developing countries.
XX
Przedstawiono wyniki badania relacji między poziomem cen a nominalną stopą procentową w Kanadzie, RFN, Stanach Zjednoczonych oraz Wielkiej Brytanii w okresie I kwartał 1970-II kwartał 2001 oraz w Polsce w okresie marzec 1992-czerwiec 2001.
XX
Ze względu na dużą zmienność procesów gospodarczych, do ich oceny i opisu potrzebne są coraz dokładniejsze narzędzia. Jak wynika z naszych rozważań, dobrze nadają się do tego funkcje kinetyczne, w których uwzględnia się wszystkie wpływy. W ten sposób porównanie dynamiki, tempa i intensywności zmian następuje z wykorzystaniem rzędów w opisanych funkcjach i mierników im odpowiadających. Każdy okres może być opisany z dużą dokładnością funkcjami kinetycznymi, a wynikające z nich parametry, rzędy n i stałe kn nadają się bardzo dobrze do porównań sprawności działania. Pokazują dynamikę biegu procesów w dowolnie dobranych okresach. (fragment tekstu)
EN
A global and quickly changing world needs more and more detailed economic information on process changes as well as change rate. The article proposes how to calculate interest rates (a rate index of two time moments) taking into account dynamic changes of appropriate sub-periods. To describe a process change intensity between its beginning and end kinetic descriptive functions are used fixing the speedy, average and momentary acceleration. The discussed method (using nominal growth rate terms) lets to fix and compare the processes in real term. The theoretical study is exemplified by change analysis and estimation of average wages and salaries in enterprise sector in Poland from December 2009 to December 2010. (original abstract)
EN
Decision-making process made by committees are nowadays the most popular way of interest rate setting. The committee size, length of tenure, and the organization of the interest rate meeting could affect the voting behavior and influences the policy outcome. This paper reviews different views about the role of expectations in monetary policy - how they are set up and how they evolve over time. An important contribution of this paper is to show two different modeling approaches: collective decision-making process based on game theory and classical statistical one. The results are applied to the National Bank of Poland decision making process in 1998-2011.
EN
As a result of subprime crisis, most major developed countries are at extraordinarily high debt levels. Some of them reached the level of public debt close to 100% of GDP. An additional problem is usually sustaining high level of budget deficit. Extreme imbalance of public budget can trigger the new crisis of the unprecedented scale. To solve the problem, governments could try to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by holding debt constant and stimulating increase of GDP. However, it would require dramatic, socially and politically unacceptable austerity measures. The additional difficulty here is that GDP drops along with spending, so the economy as a whole shrinks and the debt-to-GDP ratio may not improve in that case. Eventually, austerity programs implemented so far have not brought the expected results. The alternative to austerity plans emergency exit could become "financial repression". It relies on inflation, but it is a steady, stealthy process and therefore much more politically acceptable. By keeping interest rates low, governments receive cheap funding. On one hand, higher inflation will lead to faster nominal GDP growth and on the other, it will liquidate the size of the government debt burden by an amount equal to the negative real interest rate (impairing private savings at the same time). The paper presents the principle of "financial repression" and, on the basis of simulations, demonstrates its effectiveness. (original abstract)
PL
Zanalizowano problematykę kosztów pracy, tzw. klina podatkowego. Omówiono konstrukcję i poziom klina podatkowego. Zweryfikowano zależności pomiędzy wysokością klina podatkowego a wzrostem gospodarczym, inwestycjami i stopą procentową. Przedstawione zależności w Polsce ukazano na tle krajów OECD. Autorzy zauważają, że "w przypadku Polski nie znalazła statystycznego potwierdzenia opinia o negatywnym wpływie klina podatkowego na tempo wzrostu gospodarczego oraz tempo wzrostu nakładów inwestycyjnych przedsiębiorstw".
EN
In economic debates in Poland it is often stressed, that the high level of costs of work, so so-called tax wedge, negatively influences on outgoings of investments and employment, and in the consequence on economic development. In the article it was tried to verify these opinions, with a support of proper statistical information of OECD countries, including Poland, from 1995 to 2005. Calculated correlation's coefficients did not prove these dependences, on the contrary - demonstrated that increase of tax wedge, in the analyzed period of time, matched the rise of investments' outgoings, revenue and unemployment's decline. During interpreting, it was noticed, that many other factors, connected with polish economy's transformation, business cycle and outside conditions 0had influenced on forming of studied macroeconomic indices. So the conclusions can not be formulated basing on these conditions, which are opposite to common opinions, that high taxes is one of the most important barriers of economic development. (original abstract)
EN
This paper reviews the reasons for and impacts of quantitative easing by the Bank of England. It analyses the macroeconomic impacts of this policy tool on the UK economy across the period 2008-16. It compares the impacts of each round of quantitative easing to assess how the impacts changed over time. The authors implemented econometric analysis based on the VAR model. This analysis indicated that the Bank of England's monetary policy influenced GDP growth by a relatively small degree during the period studied. The impact of changes in the monetary base (M3) explained a bigger part of GDP growth than the decreases in interest rates and exchange rates. Over time the impact of this policy response diminished. (original abstract)
PL
Przedmiotem zainteresowania artykułu jest stan konwergencji nominalnej przed przyjęciem euro jako źródło narastania nierównowag makroekonomicznych. Dla nominalnych stóp procentowych, inflacji i długu publicznego przeanalizowano konwergencje dla krajów dotkniętych kryzysem i wyciągnięto wnioski dla Polski. Występujące różnice między Polską a strefą euro mogą wskazywać na zbliżony do krajów dotkniętych kryzysem potencjał narastania nierównowag makroekonomicznych, zwłaszcza jeśli uwzględni się również stan konwergencji realnej. Oznacza to, że w przypadku przyjęcia wspólnej waluty, polityka gospodarcza musi być przygotowana do działań pozwalających na zahamowanie lub skorygowanie nierównowag makroekonomicznych.
EN
Paper discusses lack of nominal convergence prior to euro adoption as the reason of eurozone crisis and examines spreads of main economic indicators – nominal interest rate, inflation and government debt. Taking in account differences in interest rates between Poland and the euro area (similar to the countries affected by the crisis prior to joining eurozone), there is potential for accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances, especially if we take into consideration the state of the real convergence. This means that in the case of adoption of a common currency, economic policy must be prepared to act allowing the suppression or correction of macroeconomic imbalances.
PL
Celem artykułu jest zbadanie, w jakim stopniu standardowy makroekonomiczny model międzypokoleniowy z rynkiem mieszkaniowym jest w stanie odwzorować strukturę wiekową zadłużenia gospodarstw domowych w Polsce. Pokazano, że odpowiednio skalibrowany model prawidłowo opisuje zarówno odsetek zadłużonych gospodarstw domowych, jak i średnią wysokość długu z uwzględnieniem wieku gospodarstw. W artykule dokonano także oceny redystrybucyjnych efektów trwałych zmian wysokości światowych stóp procentowych dla gospodarstw domowych w Polsce.
EN
In this paper we investigate to what extent a standard overlapping generations model with housing is able to replicate age profiles of households’ debt observed in Poland. We show that a properly calibrated model matches both the fraction of indebted households and the conditional mean value of their debts. We use the model to assess distributional consequences of permanent changes in the world interest rates for households in Poland.
EN
The paper presents the conception and method of estimating the internal reference rate for loans granted by banks. It's based on the structure of the bank's assets and liabilities, sources of financing and the cost of raising funds, the bank's capital needs, capital costs, and other items of the financial result. Presented method can be used particularly when the bank realizes strategy of variable interest rates depending on the internal decision of the Board in respect of the interest assets and liabilities. This strategy is commonly used by the co-operative banks. The paper contains the model of the cooperative bank, described by mathematical equations that indicate relationships between the parts of the balance sheet, income statement and capital adequacy calculation. The resulting formula for the calculation of the internal reference rate for loans may be used for ongoing monitoring of the bank's operations and strategic planning.
14
63%
PL
Artykuł został poświęcony analizie prac naukowych z zakresu rynkowych stóp procentowych. Szczegółowo opisano w nim m.in. teorie: klasyczne, preferencji płynności, neoklasyczne i postkeynesowskie. Autorzy bliżej przyglądają się modelowi wyznaczania stopy procentowej Irvinga Fishera, teorii procentu Johna Maynarda Keynesa oraz postkeynesowskiemu ujęciu stopy procentowej w teorii zapasów. W zaprezentowanych teoriach poszukują wzajemnych związków nie na drodze prostych zależności, ale opierając się na konsekwencjach, jakie rodzą dla realnej gospodarki.
EN
The article was devoted to the analysis of scientific papers in the field of market interest rates. Classical theory and the theory of liquidity preference, as well as neoclassical and postkeynes theories are described in more detail. The authors accurately look at the Irving Fisher’s model of determining the interest rate, John Maynard Keynes’ theory of interest and postkeynes terms of the interest rate in a stock theory. In the presented theories, the authors seek mutual relations not only as a simple dependence, but based on the consequences for the real economy.
PL
Ważnym elementem funkcjonowania przedsiębiorstw jest wybór prawidłowej struktury kapitału z uwzględnieniem relacji kapitału pożyczkowego do kapitału własnego oraz udziału zadłużenia długoterminowego w źródłach finansowania. Wybór struktury kapitału zależy zarówno od zewnętrznych, jak i wewnętrznych uwarunkowań z założeniem, że każde przedsiębiorstwo indywidualnie kształtuje relacje kapitałowe, z uwzględnieniem stopnia akceptacji ryzyka finansowego. W artykule dokonano porównania głównych relacji kapitałowych przedsiębiorstw z wybranych państw europejskich z wyróżnieniem również zróżnicowania struktury kapitałowej w Polsce oraz oceną, która z teorii struktury kapitału dominuje w wyborach polskich przedsiębiorstw.
EN
The capital structure choice, with regard to the proportion of debt and equity and the application of long-term debt, belongs to the key decision areas in the corporate financial management. The capital structure is determined by internal and external factors, including the individual capital structure preferences of each company and the level of accepted financial (bankruptcy) risk. This paper presents the results of the cross-country study on the capital structure in chosen European countries. In particular, the capital structure of Polish companies was analyzed with regard to its determinants explained by the prevalent capital structure theory.
EN
As a result of the crisis of confidence in the financial markets caused by events that took place in the years 2007-2008 and later fiscal problems in the peripheral countries of the European Union, banks lost their ability of refinancing based on unsecured interbank deposits. This contributed to the growth of the importance of deposits from non-financial customers whose cost started differing significantly from money market indices based on the interbank market. Moreover, strong divergence between the rate applicable to off-balance-sheet items (OIS) and the price of cash applicable to balance-sheet flows appeared. This article presents an analysis of changes in the structure of interest rates in various segments of the market in four selected countries of the EU: two countries from the Eurozone and two non-Eurozone countries. Observations from the money market indicate that it is economically justified to create separate benchmarks for balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet items.
XX
W artykule przedstawiono oszacowania stopy procentowej według reguły J. B. Taylora. Jednym z wielu istotnych problemów, na które napotykamy szacując funkcję reakcji polityki pieniężnej, jest potrzeba stosowania danych dostępnych bankowi centralnemu w momencie podejmowania decyzji. Analizę przeprowadzono na podstawie danych kwartalnych obejmujących okres od 1 kwartału 1999 r. do 3 kwartału 2007 r. Porównano dwa sposoby pomiaru luki PKB: liczoną na podstawie danych realnych oraz na podstawie danych ex-post. Na podstawie badania stwierdzano bardzo silną reakcję polityki pieniężnej na odchylenie inflacji od celu oraz brak istotnego wpływu luki PKB. Takie zachowanie, określane w literaturze jako „świrowanie na punkcie inflacji” (inflation nutter), nadmiernie powiększa fluktuacje gospodarcze. Opisana reakcja może być uzasadniona w warunkach niepewności co do szacunków tej luki. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
In the article estimation of interest rate by Taylor rule was presented. One of the essential problems facing during estimation of function of monetary policy reaction is the need to use data available for central bank just in moment of deciding process. The analysis carried out on the base of quarterly data covering period from the 1 quarter 1999 until 3 quarter 2007. The two ways of GDP gap measure were compared: the gap was calculated on the base of real data and on the base of ex-post data. On the base of the survey the very strong reaction of monetary policy on deviation of inflation from target and lack of significant influence on GDP gaps was observed. Such an effect, is called in literature as "inflation nutter", over increases economic fluctuations. Described reaction may be well-grounded when an estimation of this gap is uncertain.
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