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A semi-Markov model of the variability of power generation from renewable sources

100%
MALINOWSKI J.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2013
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vol. 23
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issue 2
81-90
EN
The paper presents a new approach to modeling the variability of power generation from a renewable source such as wind or flowing water. The force of the power generating agent is assumed to change according to the semi-Markov process with finite state space. For the purpose of its construction, the range of possible values expressing the agent’s force is divided into a finite number of subintervals. It is natural to assume that the time during which the agent’s force remains within one such interval, and the probabilities of transitions to neighboring intervals depend to some extent on the agent’s earlier behavior. The model’s accuracy is determined by the number of subintervals used and the assumed degree to which the agent’s force depends on its history. This degree is expressed by the number of the most recently entered subintervals relevant to predicting the agent’s future behavior. According to the presupposed accuracy level, an appropriately complex state-space and a diagram of the inter-state transitions for the modeled process have been constructed. Subsequently, it is demonstrated how certain parameters of this process, related to forecasting power generation, can be calculated by means of the calculus of the Laplace transforms.
2
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A MEASURE OF INTERNAL SYNERGY OF THE COLLECTIVE SYSTEM

45%
Novikov V.
LogForum
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2013
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vol. 9
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issue 4
277-281
EN
Background: The authors examine the methodology of HRM personnel management based on ratings. Proposed to represent a collective system that uses a matrix of pair relations as a system of linear differential equations. The condition of auto generation of an autonomous system can be determined by the application of the Laplace transformation to the system. This condition mainly depends on the main eigenvalue of dating relationships matrix. Assuming the oscillation frequency is straightly proportional to the system's synergy rating, a special algorithm of comparative evaluation of several collective systems was suggested. Methods: The calculation of the rating of internal synergies is based on the representation of the collective system as a system of linear differential equations, the coefficients of which are obtained by questionnaire survey of all members of the team. Internal representation of the system's synergism as a stimulation of an autonomous system allows using the eigenvector of the system as a measure of internal synergies. Results: The result of this method is the rating of members of interacting collective systems in terms of their contribution to the self-organization sharing behavior. Conclusions: Using a matrix of pair relations allows without direct programming and only using MathCad determines the measure of internal synergy of a collective system.
PL
Wstęp: Autorzy przeprowadzili badanie metodologii zarządzania pracownikami HR w oparciu o metodę rankingową. Omawiana metoda pozwala na zastosowanie matrycy zależności jako systemu równań liniowych. Metody: Przygotowanie ranking wewnętrznych zależności zostało oparte na przedstawieniu badanego systemu jako systemu równań liniowych, których współczynniki zostały dobrane na podstawie przeprowadzonych ankiet. Wewnętrzne przedstawienie synergizmu systemu jako czynnika stymulującego autonomiczny system pozwala na zastosowanie wektorów własnych systemu jako mierników wewnętrznych synergii. Wyniki: Zaprezentowano ranking członków złożonego systemu w odniesieniu do ich udziału w współtworzenie organizacyjne tego systemu. Wnioski: Zastosowanie macierzy wzajemnych zależności pozwala bez konieczności bezpośredniego programowania, a tylko za pomocą MathCad, na wyznaczenie mierników synergii wewnętrznej system złożonego.
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