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What are we studying? The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation targeting in the first five years

100%
Jakab M. Z., Kiss G., Kovacs M. A.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
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vol. 53
|
issue 12
1101-1134
EN
This paper marks the fifth anniversary of the inflation targeting regime in Hungary by reviewing the role of forecasting in inflation-targeting regimes and evaluating the experiences of the National Bank of Hungary. A brief historical review is followed by a forecast assessment. Based on theoretically justified assessment of conditional forecasts, the following conclusions can be drawn. In most cases, the turning points in inflation were projected correctly, i. e. the monetary-policy signals were adequate. The statistical analysis of key forecast errors revealed that projection errors were unbiased. There were, however, projection errors as well, in wage adjustment, household consumption growth, and external activity of the corporate sector. Comprehensive analysis of the structure of the forecasting errors indicates that ex post forecasts have not utilized all information to an optimal extent. There was overreaction to the latest-quarter CPI figure, while the effect of nominal wages, exchange rates and oil prices might be weaker in the short run and stronger in the long run, compared with the National Bank forecasting methods.
2

Irrespective of everything. The effect of monetary policy on the economic cycle in Hungary

80%
Abel I., Siklos P. L.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2007
|
vol. 54
|
issue 11
845-959
EN
Hungarian monetary policy in the last decade is assessed using a textbook macroeconomic model, irrespective of change in economic-policy conditions and political influences. Monetary policy is seen as a key element of economic policy, whose aim to attain economic stability. According to this view, moderating the economic cycle and pursuing price stability are both tasks for economic policy
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