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EN
In the situation of financial crisis large numbers of central banks have started to ease monetary conditions. The National Bank of Poland, following central banks of biggest economies, started to offer unconventional methods to increase liquidity: foreign exchange swaps. The aim of the paper is twofold: to calculate the risk premium understood as a difference between an implied forward rate and a reference rate. The second is to show the sensitivity of the risk premium (a difference between) to market disturbances and than to monetary policy easing.
EN
The global economic crisis has affected the whole world, including Serbia. Countries with different degrees of development reacted with different measures of economic policy, both monetary as well as fiscal. Economic authorities in Serbia have encountered certain limiting factors in the selection of measures, first of all taking into account the unfinished transition process. This paper will examine whether the applied monetary and fiscal policy in Serbia is adequate according to the position which Serbia occupies by the Mundell-Fleming model, as well as to identify the starting position for future economic policy measures.
EN
The National Bank of Poland is carrying the monetary policy out according to entitlements conferred by the Polish constitution and other acts. The Monetary Policy Council is a basic organ of The National Bank of Poland which determines the strategy, purposes of the monetary policy to the given year and instruments of their realization. The basic tools of National Bank of Poland include open market operations, deposit- credit operations and a reserve requirement. The profitability of instruments of the monetary policy depends on NBP interest rates. The present article is introducing the monetary policy of the National Bank of Po-land in 2012-2013 years, that is the period, in which the Monetary Policy Council re-duced bank bases rate by the National Bank of Poland to the lowest level in history.
EN
CIVETS countries refer to a group of countries consisting of Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and the Republic of South Africa, considered leaders of emerging markets. They are countries with dynamically developing economies, moderate debt level, and they have successfully managed to overcome the last financial and economic crisis within a short period of time. Similarly, as in case of the majority of countries, their monetary policy constitutes a significant element of macroeconomic policy, having influence not only on the condition of the banking sector, but the economy as a whole. Central banks of the CIVETS countries focused on inflation target as the goal of monetary policy. They used first of all the interest rate channel as well as instruments regulating liquidity of interbank money market of a standard character (open market operations, refinanced credits and reserve requirement), as well as non-standard monetary policy instruments in order to execute the policy of supporting liquidity of the banking sector in years 2006-2013.
PL
Celem artykułu jest wyprowadzenie wzoru na odpornie optymalną regułę instrumentalną polityki pieniężnej na podstawie jednego z modeli optymalizacji mechanizmu transmisji monetarnej, uwzględniając model strukturalny przedstawiony przez Woodforda. Odpornie optymalna reguła instrumentalna jest pomocnym narzędziem przy podejmowaniu decyzji monetarnych mających wpływ na zmienne makroekonomiczne, w tym również na przyszłą inflację. Jednym z rodzajów prognoz wskaźnika inflacji jest zatem prognoza inflacji uzyskana przy założeniu, że stopa procentowa będzie kształtować się zgodnie z wyprowadzoną odpornie optymalną regułą instrumentalną.
EN
The purpose of this article was the formula derivation for the robust optimal instrumental monetary policy rule based on one of the monetary transmission mechanism optimization models taking into account the structural model presented by Woodford. The robust optimal instrumental rule is a helpful tool when we make monetary policy decisions that affect macroeconomic variables, including future inflation. Thus, one of the types of inflation forecasts is the inflation forecast obtained under the assumption that the interest rate will be determined based on the derived robust optimal instrumental rule.
EN
The Beginnings of the Monetary Policy in Polish Land
EN
This paper makes an attempt in discussing the pros and cons of central banks exiting from unconventional monetary policy strategies. Having in mind the latest international economic research concerning the optimal entrance and exit strategies of the zero interest rate policy, it is worth discussing the results of the contemporary central banks in preserving the financial system and supporting the real economy. The main aim of this paper is the assessment of the Polish central bank’s low rate interest rates policy effectiveness and to find out its influence on the economy. The following research problem is discussed: should central banks use the exit strategy from zero interest rates and if yes, why and when. This task requires to put forward the following research hypothesis: too late implementation of the cycle of low interest rates by the National Bank of Poland does not help improvement of the Polish economy situation.
PL
Zastosowanie różnych kryteriów konstrukcji krzywej dochodowości zmusza do poszukiwań takiej metodologii, która pozwoliłaby na ocenę pożądanych cech krzywej dochodowości na potrzeby polskiej polityki pieniężnej. Oparcie skonstruowanej miary na własnościach powierzchni korelacji implikowanej 7-dniowej stopy forward wymagało przyjęcia subiektywnych kryteriów oceny. Taki sposób oceny daje pewien obraz potencjału krzywej dochodowości w zależności od przyjętego modelu parametrycznego oraz funkcji celu.
EN
The use of different criteria for the yield curve construction makes to search for such methodology which would allow to assess the desirable features of the yield curve. The adoption of subjective evaluation criteria let construct a measure which describes the required features of the correlation surface. This surface is composed of correlation coefficients between implied 7-day forward rates. Such a method of assessment let point out the best yield curves depending on the assumed parametric model and the objective function.
Ekonomista
|
2020
|
issue 4
600-615
PL
Pojęcie płynności stosowane w literaturze ekonomicznej jest złożone i niejasne. Ten artykuł próbuje wyjaśnić to pojęcie w praktyce na przykładzie gospodarki Turcji. Autor wykorzystuje statystykę elektronicznego systemu transferów finansowych oraz analityczny bilans banku centralnego Republiki Turcji do wyjaśnienia kategorii płynności i jej wpływu na system finansowy kraju. System transferów finansowych służy do pokazania i objaśnienia ilości pieniądza na rynku. Dzienny zapis płynności oraz determinanty płynności są analizowane z punktu widzenia bilansu banku centralnego. Z analizy wynika, że głównymi czynnikami powodującymi niedobór płynności rynkowej jest wzrost emisji pieniądza i depozytów pieniężnych sektora państwowego, natomiast nadwyżka płynności jest generowana przez wzrost netto aktywów zagranicznych i krajowych. Co najważniejsze, artykuł pokazuje, że w latach 2013-2018 (z wyjątkiem roku 2016) bank centralny Turcji zajmował pozycję antycykliczną nastawioną na zachowanie równowagi na rynku pieniężnym.
EN
The term of liquidity is complex and unclear in the economic literature. This paper tries to explain this concept in practice for the Turkish economy. The statistics of EFT (Electronic Fund Transfer) system and the analytical balance sheet of the Central Bank of Turkish Republic are used to explain what the liquidity is and how the liquidity situation changes in the country's financial system. The liquidity is classified as "market liquidity". The EFT system is used to materialize the market liquidity and the statistics of EFT system are used to explain the volume of market liquidity. The daily liquidity dataset for Central Bank of Turkish Republic is created and the determinants of the liquidity situation are analysed from perspective of analytical balance sheet. This study identifies that the increase in the currency issued and government sector deposits are main determinants of the liquidity deficit and also concludes that the liquidity surplus results from the increment in net foreign assets and domestic assets. Most importantly, this article shows that Central Bank of Turkish Republic took a countercyclical position against both the liquidity deficit and liquidity surplus between 2013 and 2018 (except 2016).
EN
Many proposals favouring cash abolition have emerged over the past few years. Their economic and social impact has not yet been analysed in depth. This paper aims to present the evolution of the means of payment during the last decades and to analyse the issue of cash abolition in European economies. The creation of a cashless economy would bring benefits, such as efficiency increase, as well as problems: the disturbance of money supply, instability of the foreign exchange rate, and so on. The paper discusses the reasons and arguments expressed by supporters and opponents of cash abolition and focuses on possible consequences, from the economic point of view. The advantages, disadvantages, benefits and costs associated with the possibility of removing cash from the economy are also described. Finally, a possible scenario for the future is analysed.(original abstract)
XX
Celem artykułu jest pokazanie wpływu prowadzonej przez NBP polityki monetarnej na gospodarkę, a szczególnie na jej wzrost. Polityka ta, jest jednym z elementów kształtujących rozmiary globalnego popytu. Polityka monetarna prowadzona przez bank centralny w Polsce, w okresie transformacji, miała nastawienie restrykcyjne — wpłynęła na ograniczenie działalności inwestycyjnej przedsiębiorstw oraz ekspansji kredytowej banków poprzez: wysokie stopy procentowe, kanał kredytowy i majątkowy oraz kształtowanie kursu walutowego. Przyczyną restrykcyjnej polityki pieniężnej była rozluźniona polityka budżetowa, powodująca deficyt finansów publicznych i narastanie długu publicznego. Praktykowana w Polsce polityka „trudnego pieniądza” spowodowała, że osiągnięcie makroekonomicznej stabilizacji było bardzo kosztowne. Efektem było niższe, od potencjalnego, tempo wzrostu PKB. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
The aim of this article was presenting how the monetary policy conducting by National Bank of Poland is influencing on the economy, but especially on it's growth. This policy is one of the elements shaping the size of global demand. The monetary policy conducted by central bank of Poland in the transformation period had a restrictive attitude - and had influence on limitation of enterprises investment activity and banks' credits expansion through: high interest rates, credit and property channel and exchange rate forming. The reason of the restrictive monetary policy was the policy of budget loosen, what caused public finances deficit and public debt escalation. Practicing the "hard money" policy caused huge costs increase of macroeconomical stabilization. It caused the effect of lower than potential economic growth rate. (original abstract)
PL
Polscy marginaliści w okresie dwudziestolecia międzywojennego nie podchodzili w sposób bezkrytyczny do fisherowskiej wersji teorii ilościowej pieniądza. Odmienne spojrzenie na pieniądz i jego istotę oraz na politykę pieniężną wynikało z problemów, z którymi borykała się polska gospodarka w omawianym okresie.
EN
Polish marginalism in the interwar period was marked by originality and independence from West-European patterns. The Polish followers of marginalism took into account the specific political and economic experience of newly-reborn Polish state and they paid careful attention to practical aspects of economic life, including an exceptional role of money and monetary policy.
PL
Celem tekstu jest wskazanie, że aktywna polityka pieniężna wdrożona przez najważniejsze banki centralne świata odniosła swój zasadniczy cel, tj. spłyciła recesję i uspo¬koiła sytuację na rynkach finansowych. Mimo tych niewątpliwych osiągnięć można jednak wskazać wiele skutków ubocznych ekspansywnej polityki monetarnej. Wśród potencjalnych ryzyk trzeba wspomnieć o zasadniczym pogorszeniu się efektywności instrumentów mone¬tarnych, takich jak stopa procentowa czy poziom rezerwy obowiązkowej, oraz o swoistym uzależnieniu rynków od płynności generowanej przez bank centralny. Kolejnym strukturalnym efektem jest pogłębianie się nierówności dochodowych poprzez prowadzenie polityki, która preferuje sektor finansowy i dochody z kapitału. Pogarszająca się sytuacja w zakresie spójności społecznej budzi poważne obawy o przy¬szłą stabilność gospodarki światowej.
EN
Goal of the text is to show that in spite of achievements in macroeconomic stabilization, monetary policy implemented due to the 2008 financial crisis, has few im¬portant side effects. We lost two important tools of monetary policy: nominal interest rate and regulation of bank’s obligatory reserve level. In the same time, financial mar¬kets are addicted to the liquidity created by central bank. Next, important and structural effect of super expansionary monetary policy, is contribution to growing income inequalities by giving preferences to the financial sector and capital owners. Growing income and wealth inequalities are real threat for stability of global economy.
EN
Decision-making process made by committees are nowadays the most popular way of interest rate setting. The committee size, length of tenure, and the organization of the interest rate meeting could affect the voting behavior and influences the policy outcome. This paper reviews different views about the role of expectations in monetary policy - how they are set up and how they evolve over time. An important contribution of this paper is to show two different modeling approaches: collective decision-making process based on game theory and classical statistical one. The results are applied to the National Bank of Poland decision making process in 1998-2011.
EN
Monetary policy and fiscal policy are the two important macroeconomic policies which are used to achieve certain major macroeconomic goals like economic growth, unemployment reduction, counteract inflation and overall economic development of the nation. The effect of macroeconomic variables may differ in terms of degree, duration, different economic systems and under different exchange rate regimes. This study analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy on the economy in terms of economic integration and different exchange rate regimes. Regression analysis in this study found that the fiscal policy is more effective in a closed economy and monetary policy is more effective in an open economy. Also the study finds that the fiscal policy is more effective under managed float exchange rate regime and monetary policy is more effective under perfectly flexible exchange rate. So this study also validated Mundell− Fleming model.
EN
In recent years, an interest in the macroeconomic effects of the demographic change has been rising in many countries. We claim that changes in the age structure of populations lead – in a more or less direct way – to changes in the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. As the hitherto literature on this issue is not very conclusive, we aim to gather the findings from different studies and build a theoretical framework for future empirical analyses.
PL
W ostatnich latach w wielu rozwiniętych krajach rośnie zainteresowanie makroekonomicznymi konsekwencjami zachodzących zmian demograficznych. Zmiany w strukturze wiekowej ludności prowadzą – w mniej lub bardziej bezpośredni sposób – do zmian w mechanizmie transmisji polityki pieniężnej oraz w jej efektywności. W dotychczasowej literaturze tematu ścierają się różne poglądy. Ten artykuł ma na celu zebranie wniosków z wielu badań i zbudowanie ram teoretycznych dla przyszłych analiz empirycznych.
PL
System Rezerwy Federalnej (Fed) pełni obecnie niekwestionowaną, wiodącą rolę w światowym systemie finansowych. Fed jest bankiem centralnym emitującym pieniądz międzynarodowy, a jego polityka pieniężna oddziałuje na całą gospodarkę światową. Od momentu utworzenia amerykańskiego banku centralnego w 1913 r. cel oraz strategia jego polityki pieniężnej podlegały ciągłym modyfikacjom. Istotne zmiany w tym zakresie miały miejsce zarówno w latach 70., jak i 90. XX w. Ostatni globalny kryzys finansowy również przyczynił się do dyskusji na temat mandatu Fed. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest przedstawienie ewolucji strategii polityki pieniężnej Fed w ciągu ostatnich czterdziestu lat.
EN
Federal Reserve System (Fed) plays currently the unquestioned leading role in the global financial system. Fed is the central bank that issue international money and its monetary policy has an impact on the global economy. Since the creation of the US central bank in 1913, its purpose and strategy of monetary policy have been subject to constant change. Significant changes in this area have occurred both in the 70s and 90s of the twentieth century. The recent global financial crisis has also contributed to the discussion on the Federal Reserve System’s mandate. The aim of the article is to present the evolution of the Fed’s monetary policy strategies over the past forty years.
EN
A yield curve which could be understood as a plot of zero-coupon rates for different terms plays an important role in monetary policy. For several years central banks have been extracting market expectations from yield curves to judge how its own monetary policy influences the market. In countries with well developed debt market central banks usually use cubic spline models or parsimonious models: Nelson-Siegel and Svensson one. The aim of the paper is to describe the increasing role of yield curve building in monetary policy and to show this process on Polish market.(
EN
The article presents a detailed classification of Monetary Policy Council resolutions as acts of internal law. In the study the attention is focused on monetary policy which is specified by RPP regulation in the form of annual monetary guidelines and complementary acts of the appropriate Council. The RPP Acts of Will were broadened with reflections of political nature of the resolution as a law act as well as the analysis of the relation that occurs between the Council resolution and the Budget formed by the Council of Ministers. The correlation between the two subjects in the economic policy of the country, with the respect for their complete autonomy, is the sign of public finance safety and of the inflationary target realization on the assumed level.
EN
At the end of the 1920s the structural imbalances in the American economy were growing. They were successfully disguised till 1928 by the loose monetary policy of the central bank together with the Department of the Treasury which was then led by the Secretary of Treasury Andrew Mellon. During the 1920s the volume of assets held by both the American public and big investors and which were interconnected with development on the stock indice was constantly increasing. Trading on the stock markets was becoming more and more common and it was practised directly or indirectly by tens percent of the population. The increase in American household debt in form of the more and more popular instalment loans became another phenomenon of the 1920s. New flat, car and electric appliances became a standard of the American form of the consumer live. The indirect economic regulation by the means of cooperative individualism was growing within whole decade.
CS
Koncem 20. let narůstaly strukturální nerovnováhy v americké ekonomice. Ty se do roku 1928 dařilo zastírat uvolněnou monetární politikou centrální banky v součinnosti s ministerstvem financí vedeným Andrewem Mellonem. Během dvacátých let stále rostl objem aktiv držených americkou veřejností i velkými investory, které byly vázány na vývoj akciového indexu. Obchodování na burze se stal běžným jevem a přímo či nepřímo jej prováděly desítky procent populace. Dalším jevem provázejícím dvacátá léta byl nárůst zadlužení amerických domácností v podobě rozšiřování praxe splátkových obchodů. Nový byt, auto a elektrické spotřebiče se staly standardem americké podoby konzumního života. Po celou dekádu narůstal nepřímá regulace ekonomiky prostřednictvím praxe tzv. kooperativního individualismu.
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