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The relationship between the output gap and excess liquidity: Evidence from Czech Republic, Estonia and Kosovo

100%
Kastrati A., Adnett N., Toçi V.
Journal of Economics and Management
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2018
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vol. 31
95-118
EN
Aim/purpose – Banks in European Transition Economies are proportionally lending less than their counterparts in the Eurozone in the face of seemingly profitable loan opportunities, whilst apparently continuously holding excess liquidity. The question that arises is whether banks in European Transition Economies are holding excess liquidity that widens the output gap? Design/methodology/approach – Given its endogenous nature, the relationship between the output gap and excess liquidity is estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions method. The research sample covers three European Transition Economies for the period 2004Q1 – 2013Q4. Findings – The results indicate that rather than being in a causal relationship, excess liquidity and the output gap are found to be correlated via common observed and unobserved determinants. Research implications/limitations – The most important policy implication of this research is that since the relationship between output gap and excess liquidity is not causal, reducing excess liquidity will not necessarily lead to a smaller (negative) output gap. There seems to be no straightforward policy framework informed by a clear trans-mission mechanism from excess liquidity to output gap. Originality/value/contribution – This study is novel in two respects. Firstly, assuming endogeneity, a new conceptual relationship between output gap and excess liquidity is presented. Secondly, empirical evidence is presented using the system equation method Seemingly Unrelated Regression, not previously used in this context.
2

Post-Crisis Potential Output in the Western Balkans

88%
Čaršimamović Vukotić N., Jankulov Suljagić I., Smirnov I.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
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2013
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vol. 8
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issue 1
23-33
EN
Spurred by the recent global economic crisis, there has been a resurgence of research on output gaps. As the crisis caused a decline in potential GDP due to a strong contraction in demand, it is expected that the recovery of potential output will be especially difficult in demand-driven small open economies, such as the Western Balkan countries, where recovery will strongly depend on global international trade recovery. The purpose of this research is to calculate and compare pre and post-crisis potential GDPs and GDP gaps for the Western Balkan countries. The symmetric filter method developed by Hodrick and Prescott is used to de-trend GDP time series data by decomposing it into growth and cyclical components. The results point to a strong decrease in potential output growth compared to the pre-crisis potential output growth of the Western Balkans.
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Ewaluacja polityki fiskalnej w krajach PIGS w warunkach wzmocnionego nadzoru fiskalnego Unii Europejskiej

51%
Moździerz A., Owsiak S.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2018
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vol. 358
147-160
PL
Celem artykułu jest dokonanie ewaluacji ex post polityki fiskalnej w krajach PIGS prowadzonej w latach 2003-2016, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem strategii realizowanych w reakcji na światowy kryzys finansowy. Cechą charakterystyczną krajów PIGS, należących do strefy euro, były wysokie deficyty budżetowe, wysoki poziom długu publicznego i trudności z regulowaniem zobowiązań wobec wierzycieli. Istotny wzrost zadłużenia krajów strefy euro w warunkach kryzysu finansowego, którego apogeum przypadło na lata 2008-2009, wymusił reformę nadzoru fiskalnego UE nad krajami członkowskimi. Uwzględniając unijne rozwiązania instytucjonalne wprowadzane od 2011 r., w artykule dokonano identyfikacji epizodów konsolidacji fiskalnych, na podstawie zmian salda pierwotnego dostosowanego cyklicznie, a następnie rozpoznano zmiany w nastawieniu w polityce fiskalnej pod wpływem reguł unijnych, badając reakcję luki produkcyjnej na zmiany impulsu fiskalnego.
EN
The aim of the article is to carry out an ex post evaluation of fiscal policy in the PIGS countries pursued in 2003-2016, with particular emphasis on strategies implemented in response to the global financial crisis. High budget deficits, high level of public debt and difficulties in settling liabilities towards creditors were a characteristic feature of the PIGS countries belonging to the euro area. A significant increase in indebtedness of the euro area countries during the financial crisis, which peaked in 2008-2009, forced reform of EU fiscal surveillance over member states. Taking into account the EU’s institutional arrangements introduced since 2011, the article identifies periods of fiscal consolidation, based on changes in the cyclically adjusted primary balances, and then identifies changes in the fiscal policy stance under the influence of EU rules, examining the response of the output gap to changes in the fiscal stimulus.
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