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HOW TO ANTICIPATE RECESSION VIA TRANSPORT INDICES

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Jakubik P., Kerimkhulle S., Teleuova S.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2017
|
vol. 65
|
issue 10
972 – 990
EN
This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.
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