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EXTRAPOLATION IN POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF THE SLOVAK NUTS III AND THEIR RELIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO SOCIETAL PROCESSES

100%
Bleha B., Novotný R.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2007
|
vol. 55
|
issue 9
835-850
EN
In general, the paper deals with population forecasting. Selected extrapolation methods are used for the case of NUTS III regions in Slovakia. The main aim is to verify how reliable they can be with respect to the recent demographic and socio economic processes in Slovakia after 1989 within transformation. We have presupposed the linkages among the demographical and socio-economical changes and curves; therefore, we have attempted to verify how fluctuation, rapid changes during last decade, and reduction of these fluctuations influence the accuracy of the models. There seems to be a strong linkage between the demographic and socio-economic systems. Stability of the demographic one is higher although influenced by fluctuations of the economical ones. There is no doubt that the rapid demographic change will influence features such as retirement system in the future. It is necessary to know how populous and old will be the Slovak population and sub-national ones. The more accurate will be the results, the more suitable will be for the economists and planners.
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