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SOURCES OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN NEW EU MEMBER STATES

100%
Mirdala R.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2016
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vol. 64
|
issue 5
440 – 457
EN
Fixed versus flexible exchange rate dilemma has become a subject of rigorous academic discussions for decades. Advantages of exchange rates flexibility contrasted benefits of exchange rate stability though a phenomenon known as the fear of floating favoured exchange rate variability and its positive effects on economies. Relative diversity in the exchange rate regimes in EU-11 countries motivated authors to investigate the sources of their real exchange rate volatility. However, fixed exchange rate perspective associated with Euro Area membership may induce changed patterns in the real exchange rate determination in countries that benefit from nominal exchange rate flexibility prior to Euro adoption. In the paper we analyse sources of real exchange rates fluctuations in EU-11 countries by employing SVAR methodology and computation of impulse-response functions. Our results indicate an increased responsiveness of real exchange rates in Euro Area non-member states to demand and supply shocks, particularly due to the effects of the crisis period. At the same time, real exchange rates in Euro Area member states from EU-11 group became more responsive to nominal shocks.
2

VPLYV MAKROEKONOMICKÝCH šOKOV NA VÝVOJ MENOVÉHO KURZU A OUTPUTU VO VYBRANÝCH KRAJINÁCH SVE (V MODELI SVAR)

100%
Mirdala R.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2008
|
vol. 56
|
issue 8
745-763
EN
After the entry to the European Monetary Union new European Union member countries loose ability to perform sovereign monetary policy. It is usually mentioned that after the euro adoption these countries will not be able to control the potential inflation pressures under the common monetary policy performed by the European central bank. Another key aspect of the euro adoption is the loss of the ability to manage the exchange rate that is considered to be a very useful absorber of the structural shocks that affect the national economy. At the same time the ability of the exchange rate to absorb or stimulate the potential effects of the exogenous structural shocks to the domestic output development could be different among the new European Union member countries. In the paper the author analyzes the impact of the main structural macroeconomic (nominal, demand and supply) shocks to the exchange rates (NEER, REER) and output (real GDP) development in the Visegrad countries in the period 1995-2007 using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model.
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