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EN
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to determine the causes of the financial crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2009. Second, the author gives an answer to the question of what systemic changes should be introduced to avoid a similar scenario in future. To pinpoint the causes of the crisis, a method based on verification of scientific hypotheses is used. The process of verification allows one to assert that the subprime crisis which started in the USA was caused by both introduction of the National Homeownership Strategy in 1993 and too low interest rates. As for the second problem, a good solution can be the introduction of a new monetary policy instrument. Central bank's new interest rate should determine a minimum level of mortgage loans regardless of the price of money on the interbank market.
EN
This study applies a stationary test with the flexible Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to test the validity of Taylor rules to assess the non-stationary properties of the convergence of the real exchange rates for ten Central Eastern European countries. We find that our approximation has a higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than the linear method if the true data-generating process of exchange rate convergence is in fact a stationary non-linear process. We examine the validity of Taylor rules from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence that Taylor rules holds true for seven Central Eastern European countries. These results imply that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary policies in Central Eastern European economies are highly influenced by Taylor rule and also influenced by external factors originating from the United States.
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