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SITUATIONAL AND PERSONALITY FACTORS IN UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM (AND PESSIMISM)

100%
Klonowicz T.
Psychological Studies
|
2005
|
vol. 43
|
issue 3
41-54
EN
The study examined situational and individual (personality) determinants of unrealistic optimism and pessimism. Participants (112 university students) estimated at two points in time ­ (a) two weeks before and (b) immediately after the exam ­ their and the average student's likely grades. Unrealistic optimism (pessimism) was operationalized as a difference between (1) a person's predictions for the self and for the average student (comparative unrealistic optimism) and (2) a prediction for the self and the actual grade (accuracy of forecasts). The results revealed that participants were unrealistically optimistic in their predictions for themselves before the exam and unrealistically pessimistic after the exam; the situational factor did not affect predictions for an average student. Only moderate positive relation between unrealistic optimism and pessimism suggests that although the two constructs share some common variance, they are sufficiently different and may indicate different phases of the coping process. The second purpose of the study was to examine the relationships between unrealistic optimism and unrealistic pessimism, on the one hand, and the Big Five personality factors and dispositional optimism, on the other. The data indicated that both comparative unrealistic optimism and accuracy of optimistic forecasts were positively associated with dispositional optimism. Comparative unrealistic optimism was positively associated with Extraversion and Consciousness and negatively ­ with Neuroticism. Accuracy of optimistic forecasts correlated positively only with Extraversion and negatively with Neuroticism
2

UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM - THE OPTIMISM OF PREDICTIONS OR THE COGNITIVE BIASES THAT ARE OPTIMISTIC BY A CHANCE?

100%
Cypryanska M., Krejtz I.
Psychological Studies
|
2005
|
vol. 43
|
issue 4
36-48
EN
The research project is motivated by the Singular-Target-Focus theory (Klar and Giladi 1997). In particular, it was verified whether this theory could account for comparative biases observed in unrealistic optimism. It was predicted that the size of comparative biases would depend rather on probability of events, than on their evaluation. The obtained results confirmed the hypothesis. For very frequent events (i.e. p equals ca 0.8), subjects evaluated higher the probabilities for individual object (Self or other, identified by a name, e.g. Pawel) than for a comparative group. In contrast, for rare events (i.e.p equals ca 0.1), subjects evaluated such probabilities lower. The comparative biases were reduced when participants were presented with events of moderate frequencies (i.e. p=ca 0.5). Moreover, such relations hold both for positive and negative events.
3

Performance estimates, comparative optimism, and reality: A study of students before and after examinations

80%
Klonowicz T.
Polish Psychological Bulletin
|
2005
|
vol. 36
|
issue 2
77-88
EN
A quasi-experimental study was carried out to examine the relationships between unrealistic optimism and reality. Unrealistic optimism was operationalized as (1) pre-examination performance estimates and (2) comparative optimism, i.e., assessment of the likelihood that a number of positive and negative events would occur to self relative to the average student. It has been hypothesized that unrealistic optimism would be only moderately related to performance and would decrease under the impact of reality. The three intrusions of reality were temporal proximity of an exam, the actual exam score, and the difference between pre-examination prediction and the actual examination score. The data indicated that: (1) the two measures of unrealistic optimism were only weakly related to the level of performance and (2) optimistic performance estimates were positively associated with both the actual examination score and comparative optimism. Moreover, the data showed that participants lowered their pre-examination performance estimates as the exam neared. This effect was particularly strong in those participants who earlier provided unrealistically optimistic performance estimates. The occurrence of postexamination unrealistic pessimism suggests that biased estimates of own performance may reflect different stages of the coping process.
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