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Analyses presented in this paper aim at testing demographic cues hypothesis, which explains voting behavior as a function of the distance between the voter and the object of the vote, expressed as demographic similarity. Four types of multivariate regression models - binomial logistic (BNL), multinomial logistic (MNL), contrast logistic (CON­TRAST), and conditional logistic (CLOGIT) - are applied to explain vote choice among Polish parties in the 1997 parliamentary election. For all models the author uses survey data combined with information on political parties derived from characteristics of the electoral candidates. The results demonstrate that for testing demographic cues hypothesis CLOGIT and BNL are the most advisable options in terms of elucidation of the regression coefficients; MNL and CONTRAST involve cumbersome interpretation and their fit to the theory is questionable.
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The aim of this article is to discuss causes of voter turnout change in Poland. Polish National Election Study data for the 2005 and 2007 parliamentary elections are used. The article presents theoretical model of voter turnout change. Then it proposes research design for investigating voter turnout dynamics and two alternative hypotheses explaining this phenomenon. First explains voter turnout change by referring to macro level processes, second emphasises the role of micro level dynamics. Empirical analyses suggest that voter turnout changes in Poland occur first of all due to micro level changes (transitions from voting to abstention or vice versa), and not because of macro level processes (changes within the electorate structure). Instability of voter turnout is not random - there are many statistically significant correlates of this phenomenon, such as gender, age, satisfaction with democracy.
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(Title in Hungarian - 'Kontraszelekcio es erkolcsi kockazat a politikaban. Vazlat az informacios aszimmetria kozgazdasagtani fogalmainak politikatudomanyi alkalmazhatosagarol'). The paper argues in favour of employing in political science the economic concept of information asymmetry, seeking to show that the mechanisms of information asymmetry among the players on the political market may have negative effects on the operation of a democratic political system as information asymmetry among economic actors - according to arguments of Nobel prize-winning economists - has on the efficiency of market competition. The paper sheds new light on the phenomenon of negative political selection (known since Plato's time), and goes on to deal in detail with the appearance of moral risk and client/agent relations in politics. The author touches also on the appearance in politics of mechanisms - signals and filters - that economists suggest for reducing information asymmetry.
EN
The article discusses the importance of social categorization processes for citizens' voting decisions. Using impression formation concepts, the authors analyzed situations in which an individual makes political choices. Two types of processes which may occur while making a decision to support a politician - derivation and rationalization - were contrasted. Derivation is defined as a process during which voting decisions are a consequence of individual evaluations of particular pieces of information about the candidate and his or her qualities. Rationalization assumes that the choice of a candidate is based on the voter's general, overall evaluation. An analysis was conducted based on the data collected during the Polish presidential elections of 1995 and 2000 in order to find out how often these two ways of evaluation are used. The results suggest that in their evaluation of the candidates, voters use both derivation and rationalization. However, the main determinant of a choice of candidate is the general, overall evaluation. The elements connected with the evaluation of a candidate's image have less direct influence. In addition, the processes of forming voting decisions also depend on the current political situation. The results can then be treated as an indirect confirmation of the assumption that when evaluating social objects man behaves like a 'motivated tactician'. Depending on his needs and goals, he switches from more laborious ways of evaluating to less laborious ones and the other way round.
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