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The reaction of the WIG stock market index to changes in the interest rates on bank deposits

100%
PRZEKOTA G., SZCZEPAŃSKA-PRZEKOTA A.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2010
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vol. 20
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issue 1
97-110
EN
Determination of the relationship between the money market and capital market is particularly important from the point of view of taking a decision on the location of investment capital. It may help to forecast future states. This study seeks to determine the relationship of the interest rate on deposits in zloty with the WIG stock index and the volume of turnover on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Analysis of correlation and VAR models are used. Analysis of long-term correlation indicates a negative relationship between the interest rate on deposits in banks and the value of the WIG stock-index. However, this may be spurious. The dependence between these variables may be more complex and should rather be seen as short term. It seems that in general the impact of an increase in interest rates on the value of the WIG index is negative in the short term, just as in the long term. In addition, in the short term these variables can move in the same direction. The results obtained in the research are consistent with results obtained for other national markets. This applies in particular to the relatively weak, negative correlation described above.
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MODELE ANALIZY TRWANIA W OCENIE SEKTORÓW SPÓŁEK GIEŁDOWYCH

51%
Bieszk-Stolorz B., Markowicz I.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2016
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vol. 17
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issue 3
7-17
PL
Celem artykułu jest analiza wahań cen akcji spółek notowanych na GPW w Warszawie w czasie bessy w 2011 roku i w ciągu dwóch kolejnych lat. Pierwszy etap badania to ocena ryzyka i intensywności spadku cen akcji spółek poszczególnych sektorów w 2011 roku. Drugi etap – to ocena szansy i intensywności odrobienia strat do końca 2013 roku. Ryzyko spadku wartości akcji spółek poszczególnych sektorów o 30% i szansa 40-procentowego wzrostu tych cen od wartości minimalnej zbadano przy wykorzystaniu modelu logitowego. Interpretacja parametrów modelu regresji Coxa umożliwiła natomiast wskazanie sektorów, których ceny akcji spółek spadały najintensywniej i które najintensywniej odrabiały straty.
EN
The aim of the article is to analyze the fluctuations in the prices of shares of companies listed on the Stock Exchange in Warsaw during the bear market in 2011 and over the next two years. At the first stage the authors assess of the risk and intensity of the 2011 drop in shares prices in particular sectors. At the second stage the authors assess the chance of recovery by the end 2013. A logit model is used to assess the risk of share value decrease by 30% in each sector as well as the chance for those prices to grow by 40% from the minimum value (each company). The interpretation of the Cox regression model parameters make it possible to identify the sectors where the drop in share prices was the most intense and which companies most intensely made up for that loss.
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