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EN
Theoretical background: The growth in the number of companies delisted from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares, has become a reason for considerations regarding the share price in tender offers addressed to shareholders who have held company securities since the Initial Public Offering (IPO).Purpose of the article: The goal of this study was to evaluate whether the price in tender offers of the shares of companies which had fially been excluded from trading on the WSE as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares would ensure a positive rate of return for shareholders who have held the shares since this company’s debut on the regulated market of the WSE.Research methods: Public tender offers, announced between 2012 and 2018 on the regulated market of the WSE have been analysed. The analysis covered prices of shares of new listings on the WSE and share prices in the tender offers of 213 companies, out of which 55 companies have been excluded from trading on the regulated market of the WSE as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares.Main findings: The results of the research indicate that more than a half of the shareholders who have held the securities of companies in their portfolio since their debut, have suffered losses after companies have been excluded from trading on the WSE as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares. Only 11% of the examined companies have generated more than double profit for investors compared with the issue price during their IPO. This research is one of the few studies on the Polish stock market to the best of the author’s knowledge.
PL
Theoretical background: The growth in the number of companies delisted from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares, has become a reason for considerations regarding the share price in tender offers addressed to shareholders who have held company securities since the Initial Public Offering (IPO).Purpose of the article: The goal of this study was to evaluate whether the price in tender offers of the shares of companies which had finally been excluded from trading on the WSE as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares would ensure a positive rate of return for shareholders who have held the shares since this company’s debut on the regulated market of the WSE.Research methods: Public tender offers, announced between 2012 and 2018 on the regulated market of the WSE have been analysed. The analysis covered prices of shares of new listings on the WSE and share prices in the tender offers of 213 companies, out of which 55 companies have been excluded from trading on the regulated market of the WSE as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares.Main findings: The results of the research indicate that more than a half of the shareholders who have held the securities of companies in their portfolio since their debut, have suffered losses after companies have been excluded from trading on the WSE as a result of the cancellation of the dematerialisation of shares. Only 11% of the examined companies have generated more than double profit for investors compared with the issue price during their IPO. This research is one of the few studies on the Polish stock market to the best of the author’s knowledge.
EN
The Warsaw Stock Exchange  has been growing rapidly since its establishment. Privatization program undergone via the public market was one of the crucial factors that contributed to this growth. Currently, very few State-owned companies that might go public have left. The main goal of this article is to discuss the possibility that family firms will step into the State’s shoes and become a more meaningful source of new issuers for the WSE. This paper identifies reasons for possible increase in family firms listings on the WSE as well as key elements for that to happen.
EN
We examine the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon in Poland using data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (the main market). In the article we survey historical average IPO underpricing in Europe and outside Europe. We discuss the determinants of the IPO underpricing which is based on asymmetry of information, ownership and control, institutional explanations and behavioural explanations. We discuss the calendar effect and we examine the influence of the January effect on the IPO underpricing. On the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2005-2011, the IPO underpricing was bigger for companies that debuted in January than for companies that debuted in other months. The empirical results are not statistically significant.
EN
The capital market appeared in Poland relatively not far ago, so it is the young market and is not shaped well. Although, the development rate does not satisfy all the believers of the capital market, it should be emphasized that this market is functioning and is developing. Market indicators are a significant element of the market analysis performed by means of fundamental analysis. The aim of this article is to study the statistic regularity in the scope of indicators connected with a dividend. In Poland dividend is not discussed often and indicators connected with dividend are practically not used in stock analysis. This study will show the usefulness of these measures in the analysis connected with investment on the stock exchange market. The analyses are conducted for some dividend variables on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (dividend rate of return and pay indicators, stopping and re-investment). The analyses concern data in the period of 2000÷2006. Some statistical parameters to detect statistical regularity for dividend rate of return and pay indicators, stopping and re-investment on the Warsaw Stock Exchange are used in the paper. The author tried to analyse the relation between selected variables too. The study should make it possible to decide if measures such as dividend rate of return and pay indicators, stopping and re-investment are unquestionably important and useful in stock analysis. It is particularly important from the point of view of long-term investment, as well as the fundamental analysis. They should be included in the group of market indicators in case of statistically significant influence of measures connected with a dividend on investment profitability. This leads to the possibility of significant growth of an investment that can turn out profitable on the capital market.
EN
There is a growing demand for models which enable to measure and assess the risk in long-term horizons (sometimes more than 2 years). The practical demand for such models is required by the institutions which manage the investments and retirement funds. In the paper the theoretical aspects of risk assessment methodology with the use of Value at Risk (VaR) were presented. In this method in order to estimate the long-term VaR limits the hybrid model which is the optimum mixture of random walk and mean reversion was used. The application of the presented methodology was exemplified by the estimation of long-term predictions for VaR limits for stock prices.
EN
The aim of this paper is to analyze the occurrence of the so called day of the week effects in market return time series from the period of January 2003 to September 2013 (and additionally January 1999 to December 2002). The study focuses on four indices of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG, WIG20, mWIG40 and sWIG80) and additionally five indices of major world stock exchanges (NIKKEI 225, DAX, CAC40, S&P 500, and IBEX). The main data sample was divided into three subperiods in order to determine whether or not the intensity of day of the week anomalies is constant in time. The study revealed a substantial number of the day of the week anomalies in earliest subperiods and very limited evidence of those effects in later ones, giving rise to the conclusion that the intensity of the day of the week anomalies is diminishing with time. The most common effect identified on the WSE was a positive Friday effect. The Monday effect often described in early literature on the subject matter seems to currently occur very rarely. The study also indicates that the day of the week effects were more persistent among stocks with smaller market capitalization on the WSE.
EN
Unlike many studies concerning audit fees in Western Europe or the United States, literature concerning this kind of research is very limited in Central and Eastern Europe. This study aimed to show what factors shape audit fees in Poland. It was conducted based on data collected from the financial statements of 111 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2018. The study used a linear regression model to verify the determinants of audit fees. The research results indicate a positive relationship between audit fees and company size, measures of complexity (in addition to the ratio of inventories and receivables to total assets) and the fact that a company is audited by the ‘Big Four’ accounting firms.
EN
The profitability of analysts’ recommendations is documented in numerous studies from all over the world. However, the evidence from the Polish market is relatively modest. The primary aim of this study is to fill this gap. The paper contributes to the economic literature in four ways. First, it provides fresh out-of-sample evidence on return patterns following analysts’ recommendations from Poland. Second, it examines the relations between these patterns and the size of the rated companies. Finally, it investigates whether it is possible to design profitable strategies based on the discovered patterns. We use monthly stock level data from Poland and the sample period is 2004-2013. In order to examine the profitability of analysts’ reports, we build market-neutral portfolios and test their performance against CAPM, Fama-French three-factor and Carhart fourfactor models. The principal findings can be summarized as follows. First, we document that the top rated companies deliver better returns than the bottom rated companies. Second, we find that the profitability is particularly impressive among the small companies. Third, the abnormal returns are partially explained by momentum and value based factors. Finally, we provide evidence that strategies based on information in recommendations deliver statistically significant positive abnormal rates of return.
9
94%
EN
In this paper we investigate the characteristics of the low price anomaly, which implies higher returns to stocks with a low nominal price. The research aims to broaden academic knowledge in a few ways. Firstly, we deliver some fresh evidence on the low price effect from the Polish market. Secondly, we analyze the interdependence between the low price effect and other return factors: value, size and liquidity. Thirdly, we investigate whether the low price effect is present after accounting for liquidity. Fourthly, we check to see whether the low price effect is robust to transaction costs. The paper is composed of three main sections. In the beginning, we review the existing literature. Next, we present the data sources and research methods employed. Finally, we discuss our research findings. Our computations are based on all the stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) in the years 2003-2013. We have concluded that the low price effect is present on the Polish market, although the statistical significance is very weak and it disappears entirely after accounting for transaction costs and liquidity.
EN
The text touches on the subject of the fi nancial markets in the context of behavioral theories. The author att empts to verify the occurrence of one of the popular calendar eff ects, the day-of-the- -week eff ect, on the Polish stock market. Another limitati on of the study area of the research is to include in the analysis only small companies. Many voices from the mainstream of behavioral fi nance say that the presence of anomalies listed is more evident in the case of small companies, which are not the focus of the majority of investors. In the proposed study, the data used contained companies in the Stock Exchange in Warsaw, with a maximum capitalizati on of 10 million PLN. Research sample includes quotati ons of these companies during the period January 2010-April 2014. In order to verify the hypothesis of the occurrence of the day-of-the-week eff ect among these companies the author used ARCH modeling. In the course of the analysis the author verifi ed negati vely the occurrence of the eff ect of weekdays in the proposed research sample.
EN
Any verification of financial hypotheses (theories) requires appropriate data. Such a requirement is met by panel data, which make it possible to use observations of many companies in many periods. The paper discusses the properties of the unbalanced panel of 112 domestic companies (excluding banks) which was constructed by the authors. At the end of 2019 these companies had been listed for at least 3 years, i. e. they had entered the WSE no later than December 31, 2016. The companies in the panel were described using 76,000 numerical values. This does not exhaust the possibilities offered by the panel because, using the variables in the panel, one can create, depending on one’s research needs, subsequent variables.
PL
Weryfikacja hipotez (teorii) finansowych wymaga odpowiednich danych. Taki wymóg spełniają dane panelowe, które umożliwiają wykorzystanie obserwacji z wielu podmiotów w wielu okresach. W pracy omówiono własności skonstruowanego przez autorów panelu niezbilansowanego 112 spółek krajowych, z wyłączeniem banków, które w końcu 2019 roku były notowane przynajmniej przez 3 lata a więc weszły na GPW nie później niż 31 grudnia 2016 roku. Spółki w skonstruowanym panelu zostały opisane za pomocą 76 tys. wartości liczbowych. Należy podkreślić, że to nie wyczerpuje możliwości jakie daje panel, gdyż mając zapisane w panelu zmienne można tworzyć, w zależności od potrzeb badawczych, kolejne zmienne.
PL
Autorzy twierdzą, że wiele raportów analitycznych publikowanych przez domy maklerskie, oceniających kursy akcji spółek notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie, daje zbyt optymistyczne oceny przewidywanych zmian ich notowań, nie w pełni uzasadnione analizą zmiennych fundamentalnych odzwierciedlających rzeczywistą sytuację tych przedsiębiorstw i ich pozycję rynkową oraz ogólną sytuację gospodarczą. Niezależnie od subiektywizmu tych ocen i ogólnej tendencji do nadmiernego optymizmu, występuje także efekt zakotwiczenia polegający na tym, że wielu analityków giełdowych stara się dostosować swoje oceny do ocen zawartych w już opublikowanych raportach innych renomowanych domów maklerskich. Takie zachowania, wpływające na oceny i prognozy kursów sporządzane przez analityków giełdowych, a zwłaszcza ich nadmierny optymizm, ograniczają wartość informacyjną podawanych przez nich rekomendacji inwestycyjnych. Powyższe wnioski zostały poparte wynikami analizy raportów giełdowych opublikowanych w okresie od 2009 r. do 2012 r., a dotyczących kursów akcji 20 największych spółek notowanych na GPW.
EN
The authors argue that many analytical reports published by brokerage houses, assessing the quotations of the companies registered at Warsaw Stock Exchange, tend to give too optimistic assessments of their future prices, not fully justifi ed by fundamental variables refl ecting the actual situation of those enterprises, their market prospects, and macroeconomic environment. Apart from subjectivism seen in those assessments and the general tendency to over-optimism, there is also an anchoraging effect in the sense that many stock market analyses tend to conform with the assessments presented in other reports published earlier by some reputable brokerage houses. Such behavioural effects infl uencing the assessments and forecasts made by market analysts, notably their over-optimism, diminish the true informative value of investment recommendations included in stock market reports. The above conclusions are supported by the results of the examination of stock market reports published by major brokerage houses in the period between 2009 and 2012, which included recommendations concerning the share prices of 20 major corporations noted at WSE.
RU
Авторы утверждают, что многие аналитические отчеты брокерских компаний, содержащих оценку курсов акций биржевых обществ, котирующихся на Бирже ценных бумаг в Варшаве, дают слишком оптимистичные оценки предполагаемых изменений их котировок. Эти оценки кажутся не вполне обоснованными в свете анализа фундаментальных переменных, отражающих действительную ситуацию этих предприятий и их рыночную позицию, а также общее экономическое положение. Независимо от субъективизма этих оценок и общей тенденции к чрезмерному оптимизму, наблюдается также эффект подключения, состоящий в том, что многие биржевые аналитики стараются подтянуть свои оценки к оценкам, содержащимся в уже публикованных отчетах других авторитетных брокерских домов. Такое поведение, влияющее на оценки и прогнозы курсов, составленных биржевыми аналитиками и особенно их чрезмерный оптимизм, ограничивают информационную ценность даваемых ими инвестиционных рекомендаций. Вышеприведенные выводы были подкреплены результатами анализа биржевых отчетов, опубликованных в период с 2009 по 2012 гг. и касающихся курсов акций 20-ти крупнейших обществ, чьи акции котируются на Бирже ценных бумаг.
EN
The definition of a news surprise plays a crucial role in the analysis of the impact of unexpected macroeconomic news announcements. In this paper, we study the properties of the most commonly used measure of news surprise, defined as the difference between the announced and expected value of the indicator. Due to the high vulnerability of this measure to outliers, we consider alternative definitions of macroeconomic surprises. Based on the analysis of announcements of 15 American macroeconomic indicators, we show that taking into account the heterogeneity of analysts’ forecasts or the variability of the previous surprises, noticeably improves the properties of the distribution of surprise measures. An additional study performed with the use of a dynamic model proves a strong linear relationship between surprise measures and WIG20 returns in the first five minutes after news announcements.
EN
Research background: The paper focuses on the research of investors' decisions with regard to shares of all 12 banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the first half of 2020. It examines the behavior of a subindex reflecting bank shares' prices against the main WIG index WIG and 14 sector subindices. The authors identify groups of banks with different investors? responses. They also classify banks into separate groups on the basis of changes in the fundamental indicators describing their economic and financial performance. The study concentrates mainly on the verification of the stability of this attribution, explaining reasons for its modifications over time.    Purpose of the article: To identify the characteristics of bank clusters determining different capital market responses to their listed shares and to explain the reasons for volatility in investors' behavior within the analyzed period. Methods: The methodology of the research can be described in three areas. The first is the statistical analysis with the emphasis on the use of a quarter range to capture changes in the volatility of share prices. The second area is the clustering k-means method based on the interpolated - from quarterly to daily - measures of the bank's financial condition. This mathematical approach is a novelty in finance and economics. The last, third, area is forecasting with the use of linear regression analysis, which is the key factor in determining the abnormal rates of return. The indicated areas are combined through a generally understood correlation analysis. Findings & value added: Large retail banks have been less affected compared to medium-sized ones with relatively rich corporate portfolios. The initial market reaction reflected concern about the resistance to the crisis of poorly capitalized banks with mean liquidity buffers. Upon the announcement of government support, investors' approach to the shares of banks of differentiated economic and financial performance conformed accordingly. These findings are valuable in the long term especially from the perspective of supervision authorities' policy during external shocks. The presented study suggests designing flexible and tailor-made regulatory approach aligned with the defined bank clusters. Its value added also consists in proposing a new method of analysis, combining interpolation and automatic clustering, which has proved to be adequate for the study of a bank's financial condition based on daily frequency data. Furthermore, assuming the same length of the estimation window, a close relationship is shown between the results of clustering and the forecasts based on different measures of rates of return.
EN
The aim of this article is to identify the most important factors influencing the use of trade credit and to assess their significance for Polish listed companies taking into consideration the role of trade credit as a source of financing. Theoretical and empirical literature does not provide clear guidance regarding factors influencing the use of trade credit. In this study the linear regression model with fixed effects for years is used to describe trade credit use in listed Polish companies in the period 2002-2018. The findings show that the following factors have the most pronounced influence on the use of trade credit: trade payables in the previous period, trade receivables, long-term debt, liquidity and short-term debt. Both long-term and short-term debt financing and trade payables are substitutes for Polish listed companies. Lower liquidity and higher trade receivables are related to a higher use of trade credit.
EN
Theoretical background: A share split is an operation that increases the total number of shares. The split is a technical operation and should not affect the market value of the company. The shareholding structure of the company remains unchanged when the shares are split. However, split studies around the world show the occurrence of abnormal returns. Purpose of the article: The article analyses splits based on market data from 2009 to 2021. The aim of the study is to analyse the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) in the periods preceding stock splits on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). CAARs are analysed in different research variants. The influence of the stock market situation and the frequency of splits on the amount of abnormal returns is examined. Research methods: The research was carried out using event study analysis. The Market-Adjusted Return Model was used to determine abnormal returns. CAARs were calculated for each analysed event window. The statistical significance of abnormal returns was verified by the parametric t test and the non-parametric Corrado rank test. Main findings: The study showed statistically significant positive abnormal returns in the 30-day period preceding the split. The hypothesis that multiple splits cause particularly high increases in the market value of companies has not been confirmed. Research on the reaction to splits depending on the state of the stock market situation did not allow unambiguous conclusions in the case of the periods when the WSE Index (WIG) increased. Weaker reaction to planned splits in the period of worse market conditions was confirmed.
17
94%
EN
The present paper is focused on NewConnect that is a new market that was organized and has been operated by the Warsaw Stock Exchange next to the main regulated market. On 30 August 2009 this new trading platform celebrated the second anniversary of its functioning. Because of a short period of its operation, NewConnect still remains unknown and mysterious for both potential issuers and investors as well as for many individuals interested in stock exchanges and capital markets. This common unfamiliarity with the NC Market operations is an essential obstacle to its development whereas NewConnect hasa chance to become a significant part of the Polish capital market. It is intended for young dynamic Polish and foreign entities as an alternative source of capital required for financing of small and very innovative companies and investments. It gives them a chance to raise capital at a lower cost. On the other hand, investors gain a great opportunity to become shareholders in a company with the prospects of success. The aim of this paper is to present basic information about the NC Market, its rules, participants as well as to provide some statistics of NewConnect functioning from its beginning in August 2007 until the end of August 2009.
EN
Research background: Several studies investigated the issue of accuracy of earnings fore-casts disclosed in IPO prospectus because of its importance in the investor’s decisions. Disclosing earnings forecasts can reduce information asymmetry and encourage potential investors to buy offered shares. The accuracy of earnings forecasts, and especially its deter-minants, was explored by some researchers, but for Polish companies such studies have not been conducted. Purpose of the article: The first objective of this study is to examine the bias and accuracy of earnings forecasts disclosed in IPO prospectuses by Polish companies attempting to be listed on the main market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The second aim of this paper is to identify the relationship between the absolute fore-cast error employed as a measure of earnings accuracy and a number of company specific characteristics such as company’s size, leverage, forecast horizon, managerial ownership, number of shares offered to investors (in relation to total shares before IPO). Methods: The empirical analysis were conducted on a sample of 102 domestic companies that performed IPOs on the main market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange during 2006-2015 and disclosed earnings forecasts in IPO prospectus. The forecast error (FER) and absolute forecast error (AFER) were adopted as a measure of accuracy of earnings forecasts. The non-parametric test was employed to achieve the adopted aims. Findings & Value added: The results show that, on average, the forecasted earnings exceed the actual earnings (i.e. the earnings forecasts are optimistic) and fore-casts are inaccurate. Moreover, the optimistic forecasts are more inaccurate than pessimistic ones. The findings of multiple regression model show that three independent variables may affect the level of absolute forecast error: the company’s size, managerial ownership and forecast horizon.
EN
The purpose of this article is to use a hierarchical algorithm to reduce the number of companies in stock exchange portfolios, together with the identification of the most and least profitable groups of the companies. To prepare the research, the author decided to use a hierarchical clustering method to segment mWIG40 index entities. The conducted research contributed to the knowledge of the segments appearing on mWIG40 index and the profitability of the obtained clusters in the analyzed period. It was concluded that the hierarchical clustering method can divide the entities from mWIG40 index into six segments. The obtained groups differed from each other in terms of the analyzed features. Moreover, it was found that it was possible to identify more and less profitable segments in terms of the rate of return. What is more, only one segment was characterized by a higher rate of return than the benchmark. The findings can help investors to make better decisions during their investing process. In addition, the results can help companies to map their business in the market.
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2021
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vol. 22
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issue 4
41-58
EN
Due to the high importance of the American economy, in the past, announcements of US macroeconomic data were shown to have a significant impact on financial markets in general, and on European stock markets in particular. However, as this effect may vary in time, this paper examines the changes in the impact of US macroeconomic news on the WIG20, the main index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Based on intraday data from 2004- 2019 we study the changes in significance and in the strength of the reaction of WIG20 to announcements of unexpected values of 13 indicators describing the American economy. On the basis of the event study analysis, we describe the reaction of the WIG20 index in the first few minutes after these kinds of announcements.
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