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EN
The article presents the theistic arguments for the existence of God that have been developed for the past 400 years and that use the concepts from probability theory. It focuses on: 1) the probabilistic version of the argument from design, and 2) Pascal's Wager. In order to present these two arguments rigorously, the so called probabilistic measures of rationality have been defined. The measures are based on the concepts of (classic) probability, conditional probability, and the expected value. These concepts have been applied to reconstruct the arguments in question. Additionally, the analytic form of the formulas defining rationality measures enables to discuss the substantive value of the arguments presented. Their weight of evidence depends to a great extent on the ontological, epistemological, and cultural assumptions that have been accepted either explicitly or implicitly. Pascal's Wager seems to be the most resistant to criticism. It also appeals to a wide range of people. Still, it is largely based on the accepted world view.
XX
Artykuł przedstawia, rozwijaną na przestrzeni ostatnich czterech stuleci, argumentację teistyczną na rzecz istnienia Boga, wykorzystującą pojęcia o charakterze probabilistycznym. Na szczególną uwagę w tym kontekście zasługują: 1) probabilistyczna wersja argumentu z celowego zamysłu oraz 2) Zakład Pascala. W celu precyzyjnego zaprezentowania obu dróg argumentacyjnych zdefiniowane zostały w artykule tzw. probabilistyczne miary racjonalności. Opierają się one na pojęciu prawdopodobieństwa (klasycznego), prawdopodobieństwa warunkowego i wartości oczekiwanej. Przy zastosowaniu tychże pojęć zrekonstruowane zostały wspomniane wyżej rozumowania. Analityczna postać formuł określających miary racjonalności umożliwia także przeprowadzenie dyskusji merytorycznej wartości omawianych argumentów. Ich siła dowodowa jest w znacznym stopniu uzależniona od przyjmowanych explicite i implicite założeń ontologicznych, epistemologicznych oraz kulturowych. Najbardziej odpornym na krytykę wydaje się Zakład Pascala, który przemawia do szerokiego spektrum ludzi. Jednakże również ten argument jest w istotnym stopniu oparty na założeniach światopoglądowych.
EN
Paley's argument is the most famous version of argumentation for God's existence from intelligent design and an often commented example of teleological reasoning. Referring to an analogy of the subtle alignment of a watch, it presents complex organs of living beings as deliberately designed and tuned. This proves the existence of an Intelligent Designer. Paley's argument has been much criticized. The analogy of the watch has been shown as imperfect and suggestions have been put forward for other than teleological explanation of the biological facts on which it is premised. Similar objections were directed against other teleological arguments, also against the fifth way of Thomas Aquinas. The fifth way is based, however, on another - the Aristotelian, understanding of finality. The Aristotle's theory is not based on finality understood as an external principle harmonizing and organizing the various components together, but on finality comprised as built into the internal structure of all things (nature), causing its tendency to act in basically the same way to a corresponding goal-end. In his reasoning, Thomas does not start with the subtle alignment of the elements of nature, but from the natural tendency to ordered by nature intentional activity. The existence of these trends leads to the recognition of the existence of the Absolute Intellect, whose operation does not organize reality but it creates reality in its whole natural structure. The course of the arguments allows Thomas to avoid the error of deism and occasionalism in determining the relationship of God to the world.
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