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PL
Tematem artykułu jest analiza skuteczności postępowań upadłościowych z możliwością zawarcia układu z wierzycielami zgodnie z przepisami ustawy Prawo upadłościowe i naprawcze. W związku z wejściem w życie nowych przepisów od dnia 1 stycznia 2016 roku autor przeanalizował akta 20 postępowań w jednym z sądów upadłościowych w centralnej Polsce. Analiza wskazuje na bardzo niską efektywność postępowań układowych co było następstwem późnego składania wniosków przez przedsiębiorców, ograniczenie działań restrukturyzacyjnych wyłącznie do redukcji i/lub rozłożenia w czasie zobowiązań. Autor zwraca uwagę także na bardzo zróżnicowaną jakościowo dokumentację przygotowaną przez przedsiębiorców. Na podstawie wyników omówiono przygotowane rekomendacje, które winny być uwzględnione przy wdrażaniu ustawy Prawo restrukturyzacyjne.
EN
The topic of the article is an analysis of effi cacy of bankruptcy procedures with the possibility of entering into an arrangement with creditors pursuant to the regulations of the Corporate Bankruptcy and Reorganisation Law Act. Having in mind the implementation of new rules since 1 January 2016, the author has analysed the documents of 20 procedures in one of the bankruptcy courts in central Poland. The analysis indicates a very low effi cacy of arrangement procedures, what was a consequence of the late applications fi led by entrepreneurs, the limitation of restructuring measures exclusively to reduction and/or staggering their liabilities. The author also pays attention to very diversifi ed in terms of quality documents prepared by entrepreneurs. Based on fi ndings, the author discussed the prepared recommendations which should be taken into account while implementing the Restructuring Law Act.
EN
The aim of this paper is to present the results of an assessment of the financial condition of companies from the construction industry after the announcement of arrangement bankruptcy, in comparison to the condition of healthy companies. The logistic regression model estimated by means of the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach were used. The first achievement of our study is the assessment of the financial condition of companies from the construction industry after the announcement of bankruptcy. The second achievement is the application of an approach combining the classical and Bayesian logistic regression models to assess the financial condition of companies in the years following the declaration of bankruptcy, and the presentation of the benefits of such a combination. The analysis described in the paper, carried out in most part by means of the ML logistic regression model, was supplemented with information yielded by the application of the Bayesian approach. In particular, the analysis of the shape of the posterior distribution of the repeat bankruptcy probability makes it possible, in some cases, to observe that the financial condition of a company is not clear, despite clear assessments made on the basis of the point estimations.
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