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Cena złota i rynek akcji jako podstawowe determinanty kursów akcji kopalni złota

100%

Mamcarz K.

FINANSE Czasopismo Komitetu Nauk o Finansach PAN

2017

issue 1(10)

135-150

The goal of the article is to assess the exposure of gold mine stock prices to changes of the gold price and the development of stock market represented by S&P 500 index between 1997 and 2016, using as measures the gold Beta and the market Beta respectively. To implement this goal, stationarity of time-series was examined by the means of augmented Dickey–Fuller test, an exponential model was constructed, cointegration test was carried out since basic time-series were non-stationary and descriptive analysis was also used. Studies have shown that in the whole period analyzed and in sub-periods (bull and bear market) the long-term relationship between considered time-series did not appear. Cointegration was recorded only in the case of two companies while taking into account the whole period analyzed and in one case for bull market period (α = 0,1). The relationship between changes in mine stock prices and market fluctuation (S&P500 index) was for these companies atypical and the deciding factor in evolution of their prices was the stock market. For the third company mine stock prices were more sensitive to changes in prices on the gold market than on the stock market. In the case of analyzed companies the relationship between gold mine stock prices and on the stock market is the long-term one. Apart from mentioned above cases cointegration did not take place. No long-run relationship was recorded and the results revealed the existence of spurious correlation. Results are crucial to investors choosing between physical gold regarded as safer in the long run, and mining stocks which prices are dependent on changes in prices on the gold and on the stock market.

Cena złota jako determinanta kursów akcji kopalni złota

72%

Mamcarz K.

Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia

2017

vol. 51

issue 4

The goal of the article is to assess the exposure of gold mine stock prices to changes of its price between 1997 and 2016, using the gold price leverage as a measure expressed with the gold Beta. To implement this goal, an exponential model was constructed, and descriptive analysis was also used. Studies have shown that in the whole period analyzed the gold price leverage effect did not occur except in 3 companies. However, after the analyzed period was divided into subperiods (bull and bear gold market), the leverage effect was reported except for 5 companies during the bull market period. Therefore, the length of the analyzed period significantly impacts the obtained results. They are crucial to investors choosing between physical gold regarded as safer in the long run, and mining stocks, in which case they expect not only the leverage effect but also other benefits.

Celem artykułu jest ocena ekspozycji kursów akcji kopalni złota na zmiany jego ceny w latach 1997–2016 przy zastosowaniu jako miary dźwigni ceny złota, wyrażonej betą złota. Dla realizacji tego celu zbudowano model potęgowy, posłużono się także analizą opisową. Badania wykazały, że w całym analizowanym okresie, oprócz 3 spółek, nie wystąpił efekt dźwigni ceny złota. Natomiast po podzieleniu analizowanego okresu na subokresy (hossy i bessy na rynku złota), z wyjątkiem 5 spółek w okresie hossy, stwierdzono efekt dźwigni. Długość okresu analizy ma zatem duży wpływ na otrzymane wyniki. Są one istotne dla inwestorów dokonujących wyboru między fizycznymi produktami złota, uważanymi za bezpieczniejsze w dłuższym okresie, a akcjami kopalni, w przypadku których oczekują oni nie tylko efektu dźwigni, ale i innych korzyści.

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1 Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia

1 FINANSE Czasopismo Komitetu Nauk o Finansach PAN

2 Mamcarz K.

2 2017

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Cena złota i rynek akcji jako podstawowe determinanty kursów akcji kopalni złota

Cena złota jako determinanta kursów akcji kopalni złota