Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Results found: 1

first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last

Search results

Search:
in the keywords:  business cycle turning point detection
help Sort By:

help Limit search:
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
1
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

The Viterbi Path of hidden Markov models in an analysis of business tendency surveys

100%
Bernardelli M., Dędys M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2015
|
vol. 96: Analyzing and forecasting economic fluctuations
25-47
EN
The aim of the paper is to show that turning points detection can be treated as a problem of pattern recognition. In the paper there are presented the results of applying normal hidden Markov models to a number of survey balances. Beyond a classical two-scale assessment of business activity a slightly more fuzzy classification of states is considered. To determine periods of unclear or difficult to evaluate situation unobservable Markov chains with three and four states are introduced. The outputs of the Viterbi algorithm, i.e. the most likely paths of unobservable states of Markov chains, are a basis of the proposed classification. The comparison of these paths with the business cycle turning points dated by OECD is described. The results obtained for three- and four-state Markov chains are close to those established in the references time series and seem to improve the speed with which, especially downshifts, are signaled. Furthermore, these results are more favorable than outcomes provided by conventional two-state models. The method proposed in this paper seems to be a very effective tool to analyze results of business tendency surveys, in particular, when multistate Markov chains are considered. Moreover, proposed decompositions allow an easy comparison of two time series as far as turning point are concerned. In the paper survey balances are compared with ‘hard’ economic data such as sold manufacturing production. The results confirm the accuracy of assessment provided by survey respondents.
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.