This study develops an integrated innovation for malaria early warning systems (MEWS), based on vulnerability monitoring, seasonal climate variability data, and epidemiologic surveillance. The main aim of the study is to examine the relationship between intra-annual climate variability and malaria transmission in Nigeria. For this study, climatic conditions considered suitable for the development of the malaria parasite and its transmission through the mosquito stage of its life cycle are temperatures within the range from 18°C to 32°C. Below 18°C the parasite development decreases significantly, while above 32°C the survival of the mosquito is compromised. Relative humidity greater than 60% is also considered a requirement for the mosquito to survive long enough for the parasite to develop sufficiently to be transmitted to its human host stage. The research findings show that seasonality of climate greatly influences the seasonality of malaria transmission. Specifically, rainfall plays an important role in the distribution and maintenance of breeding sites for the mosquito vector. Rainfall and surface water is required for the egg laying and larval stages of the mosquito life cycle and monthly rainfall above 80 mm is considered a requirement. Also, it is temperature that regulates the development rate of both the mosquito larvae and the malaria parasite (Plasmodium species) within the mosquito host. Relative humidity and temperature play an important role in the survival and longevity of the mosquito vector. This study is in conformity with the findings of the IPCC (2001) that malaria is caused by four distinct species of the Plasmodium parasite, transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles, which are most abundant in tropical/subtropical regions, although they are also found in limited numbers in temperate climates.
The analysis of multiannual variability of maximum sums of daily precipitation was based on a 20 years-long observation series (1990–2009) from Ojców-Park Zamkowy observation point, situated in the Prądnik river valley, and maintained by the Ojców National Park. Methods of descriptive statistics, namely average values, including 5-days and 5-hours moving averages, extremal values and dispersion indices were used in the analysis (Fig. 1, 2).An attempt at determining the basic characteristics of precipitation variability on a regional scale has shown a marked instability of the temporal precipitation series controlled by circulation processes and local conditions. Non-periodic fluctuations are manifest in the results of the frequency analysis of maximum daily precipitation. The highest was the frequency of low, moderate and high precipitation (daily sums < 20 mm), the lowest (0.34%) was the frequency of very high precipitation. Precipitation sum higher than 60 mm was noted twice, in 1995 and 2007 year. The variability of precipitation in the Prądnik Valley is controlled by the intensity of cyclonic circulation, especially of the baric trough (Bc) and advection of polar maritime air mass (PPm).
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