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EN
The maritime transport in Bulgaria is controlled and coordinated by the Executive Agency "Maritime administration". This institutionis a legal entity on budget support to the Ministry of transport, information technology and communications, a second level user of budget credits, based in Sofia with regional offices in Bourgas, Varna, Lom and Rousse (where are the Bulgarian major ports). EAMA status is regulated by the Merchant Shipping Code – Art. 360, para. 1. The problem of forecasting in the new strategic documents is crucial to the formation of proper infrastructure policy which has to be innovative and for the future strategic development of the tourism in the country. This paper is aimed at presenting the lack of real forecasting in many of the strategic documents and projects adopted for the development of the maritime transport in Bulgaria (i.e. Directive2008/106/EC of European Parliament and Council on the minimum level of training of sea farers; Ordinance No. 9 of 2013 on the requirements for operational suitability of ports and specialised port facilities; Ordinance No. 10 of 2014 on the scope and content, preparation, approval and amendment of the general plans of the public transport ports). There are also many Mutual Agreements for Recognition of Seafarers" certificates. The paper provides a practical example for the use of the so called single or simple exponential smoothing without the presence of any seasonality and the lack of cyclicity on the number of passengersarrivals at the Bulgarian maritime ports.
PL
Występowanie zagrożeń w zakresie klasyfikacji klęsk żywiołowych staje się zjawiskiem coraz bardziej powszechnym. Administracja publiczna w formie struktur bezpieczeństwa stanowi kluczowy element w kształtowaniu powszechnej obrony przed ewentualną eskalacją niebezpieczeństw. Aby w odpowiedni sposób realizować powyższe założenia należy wykazywać wzmożone działania w obszarze planowania, budowania dokumentów strategicznych oraz kształtowania właściwej charakterystyki potencjalnych zagrożeń. Co więcej, należyte łączenie systemów bezpieczeństwa wymaga formułowania solidnego, a także sprawnego procesu decydowania politycznego w momencie pojawienia się sytuacji kryzysowych. Przedstawiona publikacja stanowi próbę zarysowania wymienionych kryteriów w ramach struktur bezpieczeństwa państwa polskiego.
EN
The occurrence of threats in the field of classification of natural disasters is becoming a more and more common phenomenon. Public administration in the form of security structures is a key element in shaping common defense against a possible escalation of dangers. In order to properly implement the above assumptions, it is necessary to demonstrate increased activities in the area of planning, building strategic documents and shaping the proper characteristics of potential threats. Moreover, proper connection of security systems requires the formulation of a solid and efficient political decision-making process in the moment of emergence of crisis situations. The presented publication is an attempt to outline the above-mentioned criteria within the framework of the security structures of the Polish state.
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