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Managerial Economics
|
2022
|
vol. 23
|
issue 2
111-130
EN
Financial integration has been proven to benefit European economies. However, it may obstruct diversification attempts, and so attracts the attention of investors and researchers. The aim of this paper is to analyze changes in spillovers between European markets, the European Index, and the World Index, over a period of two decades (2000–2021), with regard to the level of development. Mature markets have higher spillovers than emerging and frontier ones. The main finding is that non-developed markets’ spillover levels in tranquil periods did not substantially increase in the last two decades, despite ongoing integration with developed European markets. However, spillover rises in time of global or regional crisis (e.g. Great Financial Crisis, Eurozone Debt Crisis, COVID-19 pandemic) for all markets, regardless of economic development, which can undermine diversification attempts just when they are most needed. Afterwards, the transmission of shocks falls back to the pre-crisis level, with the exception of the spillover between Eurozone markets and European Index, which remained very high even after the end of the particular crisis.
EN
This paper investigates the international financial market integration as a trigger for regime switching behavior of Indian implied volatility index and its regime-dependent conditional correlations with the selected developed markets. The 2-state dynamic regression model reveals two different regimes using state-dependent variables during the time period 2009 to 2016. The results found that Hong Kong and US markets have a significant effect on the Indian market during highly volatile state, and there is a clear decoupling effect among these markets when the Indian market is stable. The predicted turning point probabilities indicate that the bull market state is persistent.
EN
Research background: The question of changes in real interest rates differentials between the Euro Area and the CEE countries in the last years is raised because of two main reasons. The first rationale is related to the growing importance of external financial factors for the CEE economies and their monetary autonomy. The second reason is associated with the unprecedented shift in monetary conditions in the EMU, brought about by negative interest rates policy and unconventional policies, and the way it impacts the real rates in the CEE economies. Purpose of the article: This paper aims at exploring the relationship between real interest rates in the Euro Area and ten countries: Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, North Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine. The analysis covers the years of 1999-2018, including periods before and after the financial and economic crisis. Methods: We employ Markov-switching regression to construct the ex-ante real interest rates series in each country, using monthly data on short-term interest rates and CPI inflation rates. A battery of unit root and stationarity test, both standard and panel ones, is applied to examine the real interest rate parity, also allowing for a structural break in the rate differentials. Findings & Value added: We provide detailed evidence on the real interest rates differentials for all of the CEE countries vis-?-vis the Euro Area. We find that, while panel stationarity tests point to the stability of real rate differentials, there are significant dissimilarities across the countries, and the results of the univariate tests are often mixed. At least half of the economies, however, reveal similar patterns of stationarity in real rates relationships. At the same time, we find differentials for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, countries highly integrated into the EMU economy, to be unstable over time.
EN
The paper looks at cross-border banking as a mode of providing banking services. It offers an overview of World Trade Organization and European Union regulations on the internationalization of banks. Both legal systems recognize cross-border banking as equivalent to other modes of financial services supply, the author says. The empirical analysis focuses on the banking sectors of 10 Central and Eastern European countries from 1998 to 2010. The role of cross-border banking services as a percentage of the total volume of loans/deposits makes it possible to conclude that the interbank markets are integrated across borders, Kruszka says. The retail banking sectors are dominated by banks that have established a local presence. The paper also examines the determinants of cross-border bank flows for the nonfinancial sector. The author uses panel data techniques. The empirical results suggest that GDP growth, the exchange rate, and financial turbulence are the most important factors behind changes in cross-border lending. The growth of cross-border deposits depends on the difference between the interest rates and the depreciation of the borrower country’s currency.
PL
Celem artykułu jest analiza transgranicznego świadczenia usług bankowych. Z tego względu przedstawiono podstawowe regulacje prawne Światowej Organizacji Handlu oraz Unii Europejskiej. Oba systemy prawne dopuszczają tę formę internacjonalizacji banków. W analizie empirycznej skupiono się na sektorach bankowych dziesięciu państw z Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w latach 1998-2010. Udziały bankowych usług transgranicznych w całkowitym wolumenie depozytów lub kredytów sugerują znaczącą międzynarodową integrację rynku międzybankowego. Bankowość detaliczna jest nadal domeną banków obecnych kapitałowo w badanych państwach. W artykule zaprezentowano również informacje o determinantach transgranicznego świadczenia usług bankowych dla podmiotów niefinansowych. W tym celu oszacowano panelowe funkcje regresji. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują na zależność dynamiki kredytów od stopy wzrostu gospodarczego, zmian kursu walutowego oraz zaburzeń na rynku finansowym. Zmiany wartości depozytów są determinowane dynamiką kursu walutowego oraz różnicą w poziomach stóp procentowych w kraju i strefie euro.
EN
Research background: In our paper we have analyzed the influence of the crisis on the financial integration in the European Monetary Union. We have analyzed EMU capital market to show the impact of the crisis, with the focus on the bonds market. The determinants of the research are yields and standard deviations on medium-term and long-term triple-A bond markets, as well as CDS medium-term premiums. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to show the volatility of researched deter-minants in periods of crisis in EMU zones. Methods: As a model we used a modified theoretical CAL portfolio model. In the last fifteen years Europe has been faced with two major crises: the world economic crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Findings & Value added: We believe that the sovereign crisis hit EMU more, leaving the deeper implications on the financial integration. Our analysis has showed that the crisis had a major impact on the financial integration. Yields and standard deviations increased multiply in periods of crisis and left the impact of volatility on the capital market. However, the degree of convergence of euro area bond markets largely stabilized in last two years.
EN
Research background: Covid-19 pandemic had a strong impact on the economy and capital market. In times of crisis, it is important for investors to be able to diversify their investment portfolio in order to mitigate risk. However, the growing trend towards capital market integration may make it ineffective. Research on financial integration, during the Covid-19 period, has started to develop, mainly in major global capital markets. It is, therefore, important to extend this research to other capital markets. The purpose of the article: This contribution aims to analyze financial integration in the stock indexes of the capital markets of Austria (ATX), Slovenia (SBITOP), Hungary (BUDAPEST SE), Lithuania (OMX VILNIUS), Poland (WIG), the Czech Republic (PX PRAGUE), Russia (MOEX) and Serbia (BELEX 15), in the context of the global pandemic (COVID-19). Methods: To measure the unit roots in the time series, we used ADF, PP, and KPSS tests, and Clemente et al. (1998) test to detect structural breaks. To ana-lyse financial integration, we applied the Gregory and Hansen integration test, and to validate the robustness of results, we use the impulse-response function (IRF) methodology, with Monte Carlo simulations, as they provide a dynamic analysis generated from the VAR model estimates. Findings & Value added: The results suggest very significant levels of integration, which decreases the chances of portfolio diversification in the long-term. Evidence shows 47 pairs of integrated stock market indexes (out of 56 possible). The stock indexes ATX, BUDAPESTE SE, BELEX 15 show financial integration with all other indexes. On the contrary, the index of OMX VILNIUS shows only 3 integrations. Results also show that most of the significant structural breaks occurred in March 2020. The analysis of the relationship between markets, in the short term, shows positive/negative co-movements, with statis-tical significance and with a persistence longer than one week.
PL
Inwestorzy instytucjonalni to podmioty, które pozyskują środki od tzw. drobnych inwestorów i inwestują je na rynkach fi nansowych. Ze względu na charakter działalności kluczowe znaczenie dla ich funkcjonowania mają procesy integracji rynków finansowych. Celem pracy jest próba odpowiedzi na pytanie o integrację inwestorów instytucjonalnych w strefie euro. Praca składa się z: (1) części wprowadzającej, w której – na podstawie literatury przedmiotu – przedstawiono determinanty integracji inwestorów instytucjonalnych w kontekście integracji rynków finansowych; (2) części poświęconej przybliżeniu działań legislacyjnych w UE, których początek sięga lat 60. XX wieku, a zmierzających obecnie do utworzenia unii bankowej i unii rynków kapitałowych; (3) części empirycznej, w której badany jest poziom integracji finansowej zarówno transgranicznej, jak i międzysektorowej w strefie euro. Przeprowadzone badania pozwalają na postawienie wniosku, że integracja inwestorów instytucjonalnych w strefie euro jest zjawiskiem dynamicznym zarówno na poziomie legislacyjnym, jak i faktycznym.
EN
Institutional investors are the entities which acquire funds from the so-called small investors and invest them in financial markets. Having in mind the nature of activities, of the key importance for their functioning are the processes of integration of financial markets. An aim of the study is an attempt to answer the question of integration of institutional investors in the euro area. The work consists of the following parts: (1) the introductory part where – based on the subject literature – there are presented the determinants of integration of institutional investors in the context of financial markets integration; (2) the part devoted to approximation of legislative measures in the EU whose onset goes back to the 1960s and which currently aim at setting up a banking union and a capital market union; (3) the empirical part where there is investigated the level of financial integration both of the cross-border and cross-sectoral nature in the Eurozone. The carried out surveys allow concluding that integration of institutional investors in the Eurozone is a dynamic phenomenon both at the legislation and actual level.
EN
The article examines some new trends among retail chains operating in Poland, in particular what is known as concentration and integration. The analysis was made with the desk research method on the basis of statistical data reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The author also used data from league tables ranking the country’s largest businesses and statistics on the development of retail centers in the country. The study confirms that Poland’s retail trade sector has undergone far-reaching concentration and integration over the past several years. Changes have primarily included a growing number of mergers and acquisitions and the substitution of organizational integration with financial ties. These trends have been especially widespread among businesses with Polish capital, but they have also applied to foreign-owned companies, some of which have withdrawn from the Polish market, the author says. The current course of concentration and integration processes in Poland’s retail trade seems to indicate that the sector’s future development will see more mergers and acquisitions and further development of retail centers, Maleszyk says. These trends are in line with what is happening in highly developed countries, the author concludes.
EN
The aim of the research, which is the basis of this paper, is to answer the question whether integration of Polish equity and debt securities markets with foreign market influence economic growth in Poland. The following hypothesis has been put forward: integration of Polish equity and debt securities market with foreign markets has a significant impact on the capital market development and economic growth in Poland. The results of the research with implementation of econometric models confirm the hypothesis.
PL
Celem artykułu jest odpowiedź na pytanie, czy integracja polskiego rynku udziałowych papierów wartościowych oraz rynku papierów dłużnych z rynkami zagranicznymi wpływa na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce. Sformułowano hipotezę badawczą, że integracja polskiego rynku udziałowych papierów wartościowych oraz integracja polskiego rynku papierów dłużnych z zagranicą wpływa w sposób statystycznie i ekonomicznie istotny na rozwój rynku kapitałowego oraz wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce. Badania z zastosowaniem modeli ekonometrycznych wykazały, że wzrost stopnia integracji polskiego rynku udziałowych i dłużnych papierów wartościowych z zagranicą wywiera pozytywny i dość znaczny wpływ zarówno na rozwój rynku akcji, jak i na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce.
EN
The aim of the research which is the base for this paper has been answer the question: if Polish equity securities market with foreign market influence the economic growth in Poland? Following hypothesis was formulated: integration of Polish equity securities market with foreign market influence significantly the capital market development and economic growth in Poland. In the research applied relation between the sum of the Polish portfolio investment in the equity securities abroad and foreign portfolio investment in Polish equity securities to GDP. The econometric models were implemented in the research. The results of the research indicated that increase of Polish market of equity securities with foreign market influence positively development of capital market and economic growth in Poland.
PL
Celem artykułu jest odpowiedź na pytanie: czy integracja polskiego rynku udziałowych papierów wartościowych wpływa na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce? Sformułowano hipotezę badawczą, że integracja polskiego rynku udziałowych papierów wartościowych wpływa w sposób statystycznie i ekonomicznie istotny na rozwój rynku kapitałowego oraz wzrost gospodarczy. Jako wskaźnik integracji polskiego rynku papierów udziałowych z rynkami zagranicznymi przyjęto stosunek sumy polskich inwestycji portfelowych w udziałowe papiery wartościowe za granicą oraz zagranicznych inwestycji portfelowych w udziałowe papiery wartościowe w Polsce do PKB. Badania z zastosowaniem modeli ekonometrycznych wykazały, że wzrost stopnia integracji polskiego rynku udziałowych papierów wartościowych z zagranicą wywiera pozytywny i dość znaczny wpływ zarówno na rozwój rynku akcji, jak i na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce.
EN
At the turn of the twentieth and twenty-first century, worldwide significant changes were made in the structure of the external investment position. In Asia and in the countries of the Middle East, there was recorded a dynamic growth of financial surpluses, while in other developing countries there was noted a significant increase of the equity in liabilities and a strong accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Generally, in the era of financial globalization since the 70s and 80s followed by a dynamic increase in the share of IIP liabilities in the GDP of developed countries. From the 90s to the beginning of the XXI century, we can note a high growth rate of the share of equity capital in the capital structure. The aim of the study is to analyze the international investment position of Poland to selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the countries in the euro area.
PL
Na przełomie XX i XXI w. na świecie zaszły znaczące zmiany w strukturze zewnętrznej pozycji inwestycyjnej krajów. W państwach Azji i Środkowego Wschodu zanotowano dynamiczny wzrost nadwyżek finansowych, natomiast w pozostałych krajach rozwijających się zauważono znaczący wzrost kapitału udziałowego w pasywach ogółem oraz silną akumulację rezerw walutowych. Generalnie, w dobie postępującej globalizacji finansowej od lat 70. i 80. XX w. następuje dynamiczny wzrost udziału pasywów MPI w PKB krajów rozwiniętych. Od lat 90. XX w. do początku XXI w. zauważyć można wysokie tempo wzrostu kapitału udziałowego w strukturze kapitału. Celem opracowania jest analiza międzynarodowej pozycji inwestycyjnej Polski na tle wybranych krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz krajów strefy euro.
PL
Celem pracy jest ocena zmian w przepływach wybranych form kapitału w procesie integracji finansowej w Unii Europejskiej. Państwa członkowskie UE podzielono na dwie grupy: kraje strefy euro oraz kraje spoza niej należąc do UE. Analiza zbiega się z ustanowieniem unii monetarnej w UE i obejmuje okres z początku XXI wieku. Dokonano przeglądu najważniejszych koncepcji teoretycznych. Wraz z postępującą integracją finansową państw członkowskich UE następuje wzrost ogólnej wartości przepływów finansowych netto mierzonej MPI. Metoda badawcza stosowana w tym studium zawiera przegląd koncepcji teoretycznych, przegląd literatury oraz dokonano analizy porównawczej wybranych wielkości. Wyniki badania wykazały istotne różnice pomiędzy krajami rozwiniętymi i rozwijającymi jeśli chodzi o różnice w przepływach netto różnych form kapitału oraz jego relacje względem PKB wykorzystując do tego międzynarodową pozycję inwestycyjną. Analiza stopnia integracji finansowej i handlowej krajów strefy euro w porównaniu z państwami członkowskimi pokazała, że obie grupy leżą na dwóch przeciwstawnych biegunach.
EN
The paper aims at assessing the changes in flows of selected forms of capital under deepening financial integration in the European Union. EU Member States are divided into two groups: members of the euro area and those outside of it. The analysis coincides with the establishing of the EU monetary union and covers the turn and early 21st century. We have reviewed major theoretical concepts providing grounds for further considerations. Together with the progressing financial integration of the EU Member States there is an increase in the overall value of financial flows measured with net IIP. Research method applied in this particular study includes the overview of theoretical concepts, literature review and a comparative analysis based on statistical data. Analyses of selected data revealed significant differences between developed and developing countries when it comes to various forms of net capital and its relation to the GDP based on the International Investment Position. The analysis of the degree of financial and trade integration of the Eurozone countries compared to the Member States outside of the euro area demonstrated that the two groups are at two opposite extremes.
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