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Comparative analysis of accuracy of selected methods of building of combined forecasts and meta-forecast

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Perzyńska J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2013
|
issue 1(39)
152-161
EN
In this paper the author presents a method of building a meta-forecast as an arithmetic mean of the combined forecasts set by various methods. The empirical example, in which the forecasts (individual, combined and meta-forecasts) are determined for the microeconomic variable with seasonal fluctuations, is the illustration of theoretical considerations. The accuracy of meta-forecasts is compared with the accuracy of their component combined forecasts and individual forecasts. The empirical studies confirm the usefulness of meta-forecasts. In most cases, they have lower errors than their component combined forecasts, also they are more accurate than individual forecasts.
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