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Ekonomista
|
2015
|
issue 6
892-909
PL
Artykuł przedstawia rozwój funduszy hedge na świecie w ostatnich 18 latach ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem okresu po wybuchu globalnego kryzysu fi nansowego. W pierwszej części autor omawia kontrowersje wokół defi niowania funduszy hedge i proponuje własną defi nicję. W następnych częściach opisano rozwój tego segmentu rynku fi nansowego, głównie przez pryzmat liczby funduszy hedge, wartości aktywów i stóp zwrotu. Przedstawione dane wskazują, że w ostatnich 18 latach zbiorcze wyniki funduszy hedge osiągały zawsze wartości dodatnie, z wyjątkiem 2008 r. i 2011 r. Niezależnie od zmiennej koniunktury na rynku fi nansowym wyniki funduszy hedge, mierzone indeksem Barclay Hedge Fund Index, były lepsze od wyników „szerokiego rynku”, mierzonego indeksem Standard & Poor’s 500. W ostatniej części artykułu omówiono perspektywy dalszego rozwoju tego sektora i prawdopodobne kierunki przyszłych zmian w jego strukturze.
EN
The paper describes the development of hedge funds throughout the world during the last 18 years, with a special consideration of the period after the outbreak of the global fi nancial crisis. In the fi rst part, the author discusses controversies about the defi nition of hedge funds and proposes his own defi nition. The next parts describe the development of this segment of the fi nancial market, presenting data on the number of hedge funds, asset value and the rates of return. The data presented in the paper show that during the last 18 years collective results of the hedge funds always assumed positive values, except for 2008 and 2011. In spite of all the fl uctuations observed in fi nancial markets, the performance of hedge funds measured by Barclay Hedge Fund Index was much better than the performance of ‘broad market’ measured by Standard&Poor’s 500. The last part describes the perspectives of the sector and probable future changes in its structure.
RU
В статье говорится о развитии хедж-фондов в мире за последние 18 лет с особым учетом периода после глобального финансового кризиса. В первой части статьи автор указывает на разногласия при формулировке дефиниции хедж-фондов и предлагает свое определение. Далее анализируется развитие этого сегмента финансового рынка, главным образом таких показателей как количество хедж-фондов, стоимость их активов и норм окупаемости. Представленные данные говорят о том, что за последние 18 лет совокупные результаты хедж-фондов достигали положительных результатов; исключение составили только результаты за 2008 и 2011 гг. Независимо от меняющейся конъюнктуры на финансовом рынке, результаты хеджфондов, измеряемые с помощью индекса Barclay Hedge Fund Index, были лучше, чем результаты „широкого рынка”, измеряемого с помощью индекса Standard & Poor 500. В последней части статьи рассматри- ваются перспективы дальнейшего развития этого сектора и возможные направления будущих изменений в его структуре.
EN
Banks in Poland have survived global financial crisis which began in 2008, much better than banks in many other countries in Western and Central Europe. The author lists and analyzes factors which contributed to maintain liquidity and financial stability of the banking sector. The most important include inter alia: strong macroeconomic bases of economy before the crisis, relatively less reliance on foreign capital and lower dependence on external trade, a lower level of households debt, a relatively high capitalization of banks and appropriate policy intervention. As the author suggests, maintaining stability of this sector will require new regulatory decisions.
EN
In this paper we look at the position of social renting in Flanders after the GFC. It is argued that the GFC has hardly affected the production levels of social rental dwellings. On the contrary levels remain higher than before the GFC. Starting from that, we briefly illustrate what the current debates in social rental housing are.
EN
During the last two decades there have been significant changes in the structure of the banking sector at the European level. Factors such as globalization, integration and development of information technologies had a significant impact on these changes. In terms of the economic integration of Europe and structural changes, there is a need to redefine the regulatory infrastructure, due to inadequate institutional arrangements. The problem topics about reform of banking regulation and establishment of a banking union, as a new level of economic integration of Europe, has been put in the focus of interest during the global financial crisis. For this reason, the paper attempts to give a comprehensive analysis of the reasons and ways to reform regulation of the banking sector. Using a critical review of the implemented reforms of banking regulation at the national and supranational level will be reconsidered their applicability in specific problem situations and suggest measures for further improvement.
PL
Celem opracowania jest zbadanie znaczenia rezerw dewizowych w łagodzeniu przebiegu kryzysu i ustalenie, czy duże rezerwy zwiększały odporność na kryzys fi nansowy lat 2008–2009. W części teoretycznej omówiono korzyści netto z akumulacji rezerw i przedstawiono makroekonomiczny model optymalnego poziomu rezerw. W części empirycznej dokonano estymacji optymalnego poziomu rezerw dla gospodarek wschodzących w okresie poprzedzającym kryzys, a następnie zbadano, używając szeregu zmiennych kontrolnych, w jakim stopniu wskaźniki faktycznego poziomu rezerw dewizowych do ich optymalnego poziomu objaśniają zróżnicowaną odporność gospodarek wschodzących na globalny kryzys fi nansowy. Ustalono po pierwsze, że kraje, które posiadały większe rezerwy dewizowe, faktycznie okazały się bardziej odporne na kryzys. Problemy z wykryciem tej relacji, które występowały we wcześniejszych badaniach, były wynikiem opierania się na faktycznym poziomie rezerw, bez jego odniesienia do poziomu optymalnego. Po drugie, zidentyfi kowana relacja była stabilna i odporna na uwzględnienie w analizie szeregu zmiennych kontrolnych stosowanych w innych opracowaniach empirycznych. Po trzecie, większość objętych próbką krajów miała rezerwy dewizowe na poziomie przewyższającym wartość optymalną, co w połączeniu z wykrytą relacją między kosztami kryzysu a rezerwami, skłania do przypuszczenia, że optymalny poziom rezerw może być niedoszacowany.
EN
This paper examines the role of foreign exchange reserves in crisis mitigation and considers the question whether large stocks of reserves contributed to resilience to fi nancial crisis of 2008–2009. In theoretical part net benefi ts of reserves accumulation are discussed and macroeconomic model of optimal reserves is presented. The optimal level of reserves for emerging market economies in the pre-crisis period is estimated in empirical part. Together with a whole range of controls these estimates are used to determine to what extent the gap between actual and optimal levels of reserves explain diversity of emerging market economies resilience to the global fi nancial crisis. The fi ndings are as follows: First, countries with a larger stock of reserves were indeed more resilient to the crisis. Inconclusive fi ndings of previous studies were the result of using the actual level of reserves rather than the gap between actual and optimal levels. Second, the relation identifi ed was stable and robust to the inclusion of many control variables used in other empirical studies. Third, majority of countries in the sample had their reserves above the optimal level. This, together with the relation between cost of the crisis and reserves, lends support to the conjecture that the optimal level of reserves could be underestimated.
RU
В статье анализируется значение валютных резервов для смягчения хода кризиса 2008-2009 гг. и влияние величины этих резервов на стойкость по отношению к этому кризису. В теоретической части рассматривается чистая выгода от аккумуляции резервов и представляется макроэкономическая модель оптимального уровня резервов. В эмпи- рической части произведена эстимация оптимального уровня резервов для растущих экономик в период, предшествующий кризису. Затем автор анализирует показатель соот- ношения между фактическим уровнем резервов и их оптимальным уровнем и значение этого показателя для стойкости отдельных растущих экономик в условиях глобального финансового кризиса. Были сделаны следующие выводы. Во-первых, страны с боль- шими валютными резервами оказались более стойкими к кризису. Во-вторых, указан- ное соотношение было стабильным и нечувствительным к включению в анализ ряда контрольных переменных. В-третьих, большинство рассматриваемых стран имела ва- лютные резервы, превышающие их оптимальную величину, что при учете соотношения между издержками кризиса и резервами, даёт основание полагать, что оптимальный уровень резервов вероятно недооценен.
EN
The fall of the U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers-one of the world’s largest financial institutions-in mid-September last year rocked the foundations of the global financial system and triggered what turned out to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Amid the global turmoil, international economists and financiers dusted off a 1980s book by American economist Hyman P. Minsky entitled Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. The book sheds new light on the ongoing financial crisis. One of the many strengths of this book is that it offers a consistent definition of a financial crisis in the modern economy. Nawrot’s article analyzes the latest financial turbulence in the world. The analysis makes use of methods based on a theoretical model developed by Minsky, which, for the needs of the article, was expanded to address the situation at the start of the 21st century. The author uses this comprehensive financial model to probe the essence of the ongoing crisis and identify its causes, course and possible implications. The analysis shows that the world’s financial markets are undergoing dynamic changes and that many financial market players are in debt. This, along with a changing breakdown of this debt, poses a serious threat for the future, Nawrot says.
EN
Inflation expectations, both their median and dispersion, are of great importance to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union. Using European Commission’s survey data, we find that in the early phase of the crisis the dispersion dropped rapidly but then, after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the trend reversed and these fluctuations cannot be explained by movements of inflation rates and other commonly used factors. We also observe that, in the new European Union member states, the initial drop of the dispersion was weaker whereas the subsequent rise was stronger as compared to the old member states.
EN
The cross-sectional association between female labour force participation rates and fertility in developed countries shifted from negative to positive during the 1980s. Ever since then, researchers have applied different statistical approaches; therefore, the present study re-evaluates the results by applying a distinct strategy to the data from2000 to 2020 for 32 countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Specifically, the data analysis discussed here implemented the so-called „unified“ model, thereby extending the analysis beyond the limitations of the fixed effects (FE) method; namely, by decomposing coefficients within (time-series) and between (cross-sectional) countries‘ effects, the study increased the explanatory power of our statistical model on the relation between fertility level and female labour force participation rate. Eventually, the selected statistical approach has shown the potential to offer a better interpretation of results in comparison to previous studies. Finally, this study confirmed the persistence of a negative trend in a time-series association between labour force participation and fertility.
EN
The aim of this article is to compare 2008-2010 recession magnitudes in individual EU countries. For the comparison the recession magnitude scale was used. The strongest recession during the examined period took place in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Greece and Ireland, while the weakest recessions in the EU occurred in France, Malta and Cyprus. Poland and Slovakia were the only two EU countries that didn’t fall into a recession, that’s why they were not included in the study. The main findings of the paper are that EU19’s recession was much smaller than both the Great Depression of the 1930s and the recent Great Recession in the USA. Furthermore, with the use of a linear econometric model it was found that recession magnitudes in EU countries were directly proportional to the countries’ GDP per capita in 2008 and growth prior to recessions, while countries’ economic openness was indirectly proportional to recession magnitudes, all the relationships being statistically significant.
EN
The article is an attempt of showing how the global economic crisis has influenced the Icelanders attitude towards the European Union membership. The possible consequences of the accession for Iceland and the European Union as well are also presented. It was untill 2008 that the Icelanders had not considered the matter of European Union membership, the more so the prospect of adopting the euro. It turns out that the global economic crisis, which affected the Icelandic economy really badly, changed the goverment's and Icelandic society attitude towards integration with European Union to a large extent. In July 2009 Iceland officialy applied for the membership in the European Union. However, it turned out quickly that the fears about securing the crucial sectors of Icelandic economy in the future accession treaty are beginning to dominate.
11
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Strefa euro a globalny kryzys finansowy XXI wieku

70%
EN
This article examines the eurozone’s economic condition in the context of the subprime crisis and European debt crisis with particular emphasis on their negative impact on the national economies. The author first looks at the primary causes of the subprime crisis, then gauges its evolution and impact. Next, he focuses on the debt crisis that has severely affected the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the eurozone member states. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the crises implications for Poland and its forthcoming access to eurozone.
EN
This article examines the eurozone’s economic condition in the context of the subprime crisis and European debt crisis with particular emphasis on their negative impact on the national economies. The author first looks at the primary causes of the subprime crisis, then gauges its evolution and impact. Next, he focuses on the debt crisis that has severely affected the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the eurozone member states. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the crises implications for Poland and its forthcoming access to eurozone.
EN
European Union banks were severely hit by the global fi nancial crisis in 2008 and their stock prices and returns have generally not recovered since then, differently to what has been observed in other sectors (i.e., non-fi nancial corporations) and jurisdictions (i.e., US). In this paper, we focus on three episodes of fi nancial turmoil in EU fi nancial markets occurring after the global fi nancial crisis (August 2015, December 2015 and January 2016, and June 2016) and, through a series of linear regressions, with and without control variables, attempt to determine the common features of those banks which stock returns declined the most. Results of the regressions tend to suggest that size has been driving the decreases in stock returns in the three episodes. Regarding asset quality, the Texas ratio has been a decisive factor in the evolution of stock returns of EU banks in the second and third periods. Interestingly, profi tability variables seem not to be statistically signifi cant to explain the declines in stock returns, except in the third period, but only under some specifi cations. An evolution on the perception by fi nancial market participants on EU banks, with a larger importance on asset quality in the latter periods, can also be observed. Lastly, on the basis of these results, further policy actions would be needed to clean-up the balance sheet of banks, as a necessary step towards full recovery after the global fi nancial crisis.
EN
Housing markets can be understood as indicators of the spatial pattern of capital investment under contemporary financial capitalism. We take this point of entry in order to analyze core-periphery relations around the turning point of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 on the Hungarian housing market. The instance of crisis sheds light on patterns of homogenization and differentiation; the effects of which can be understood by exploring housing market activity on various scales from the European to the local/regional. We argue that these two patterns of uneven development are inextricably linked and result in deepening sociospatial polarization.
PL
Globalny kryzys finansowy 2008 roku był jedną z największych recesji w historii i doprowadził do olbrzymich strat tak w wymiarze ekonomicznym, jak i społecznym. Celem artykułu jest zbadanie, w jakim zakresie w literaturze na temat przyczyn globalnego kryzysu finansowego uwzględniane są wątki etyczne. Wykazuje się w nim, że mimo destrukcyjnego wpływu nieetycznych postaw wielu instytucji rynku finansowego oraz menedżerów, które doprowadziły do globalnego kryzysu finansowego, etyczne aspekty kryzysu są wciąż pomijane w literaturze przedmiotu. Autor konkluduje, że paradygmaty ekonomii i nauk zarządzania winny być zrewidowane i mocno zakorzenione w etyce.
EN
The global financial crisis of 2008 was one of the biggest in the history and it brought about enormous losses both on the economic and social plane. The aim of the article is to assess to what extent ethical considerations are present in literature on the causes of the global financial crisis. It is argued that despite the destructive role of unethical behaviors of numerous business entities as well as CEOs in the financial sector which set the stage for the global financial crisis, the ethical aspects of the financial crisis remain neglected. The author concludes that the paradigms of economic and management sciences should be revised and that they should be embedded in ethics.
EN
The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the weakness of the orthodoxy which caused the crisis and has problems with its resolution. The division into practical and theoretical orthodoxy was proposed. The former (new Keynesianian economics) is exercised directly after the bursting of the stock market bubble, the latter gains importance during the boom. Theoretical orthodoxy represents a typical free market rhetoric concentrating on further deregulation of the fi nancial markets.
EN
The paper seeks to determine the occurrence of either convergence or divergence processes between Italian regions and to establish whether these processes are permanent or periodical in character. To achieve this aim, the authors use the following methods: analysis of the literature, clustering analysis, estimation of dynamic panel data models, and other statistical methods. The research is based on data downloaded from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat). Four variables were taken into consideration: GDP per capita, investments per capita, gross wages per worker, and the unemployment rate. The study covered the period from 2000 to 2013, including a breakdown into two sub-periods: 2000-2007 (before the global financial crisis) and 2008-2013 (after the start of the crisis). The authors have demonstrated that both convergence and divergence processes occur between Italian regions, but they take place mainly within macro-regions and refer to individual variables. Only in the case of the unemployment rate is it possible to speak of convergence as a general trend that occurs both nationwide and within macroregions. However, according to the authors, this trend may largely be due to factors such as labor migration from the south to the north of Italy, combined with hidden unemployment in agriculture and tourism. Moreover, official statistics omit unemployed persons seeking employment in the country’s southern regions. If the existing processes continue within Italy’s macroregions, they will likely increase the development gap between the Mezzogiorno area and the northern and central parts of the country.
PL
Głównym celem artykułu jest próba ustalenia, czy między regionami włoskimi występuje zjawisko konwergencji czy też dywergencji w poziomie rozwoju i czy te procesy miały trwały czy okresowy charakter. Do osiągnięcia tego celu wykorzystano metody: analizy literatury przedmiotu, analizy skupień, estymacji dynamicznych modeli panelowych oraz inne metody statystyczne. Badanie opiera się na danych zaczerpniętych z Urzędu Statystycznego Włoch ISTAT i obejmuje takie zmienne, jak PKB per capita, inwestycje per capita, wynagrodzenia brutto oraz stopy bezrobocia. Badaniem objęto lata 2000-2013, wyodrębniając jednocześnie podokres 2000-2007, przed globalnym kryzysem finansowym oraz 2008-2013, po rozpoczęciu kryzysu. Autorzy wykazali, że między regionami włoskimi występują zarówno procesy konwergencji, jak i procesy dywergencji, lecz zachodzą one głównie wewnątrz makroregionów i dotyczą jedynie pojedynczych zmiennych. Tylko w przypadku stopy bezrobocia można mówić o konwergencji jako o zjawisku ogólnym, które występuje zarówno w skali całego kraju, jak i wewnątrz makroregionów. Zdaniem autorów, to zjawisko może mieć charakter pozorny, związany z m.in. migracją zarobkową bezrobotnych z południa na północ Włoch, ukrytym bezrobociem w rolnictwie i turystyce, a także z pominięciem w ewidencji bezrobotnych osób zniechęconych do poszukiwania pracy w południowowłoskich regionach. Dalsze utrzymanie się bieżących trendów wewnątrz makroregionów prawdopodobnie spowoduje powiększenie się luki rozwojowej regionów Mezzogiorno, względem północnej i środkowej części Włoch.
EN
Using weekly data collected from 20.09.2008 to 09.12.2016, this paper uses dynamic threshold adjustment models to demonstrate how the introduction of high-frequency and algorithmic trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has altered convergence relations between the federal fund rate and equity returns for aggregate and disaggregate South African market indices. We particularly find that for the post-crisis period, the JSE appears to operate more efficiently, in the weak-form sense, under high frequency trading platforms.
EN
The global financial crisis has dramatically changed from the basis not only rules of the real estate market financing, but also permanently changed the banking sector in many countries. Due to the crisis, banks have become more cautious in implementing the operations and money lending and effectively began to measure and evaluate the credit risk. Increase in risk also encouraged the adoption of agreements on capital adequacy and the establishment of prudential rules in banking institutions. In this context, the National Bank of Slovakia starts considering the changes in the credit financing of residential properties because of possible risk which is related to evolution of the value of the loan and real estate. This article focuses on the current situation on the residential market in the Slovak Republic in terms of interest rates, loan financing of new residential projects, housing affordability (Housing affordability index) as well as supply and demand
PL
Globalny kryzys finansowy dramatycznie zmienił od podstaw nie tylko zasady finansowania rynku nieruchomości, ale także w sposób permanentny zmienił sektor bankowy w wielu krajach. Ze względu na kryzys, banki stały się ostrożniejsze we wdrażaniu działań i pożyczaniu pieniędzy i efektywnie rozpoczęły pomiar i ocenę ryzyka kredytowego. Wzrost ryzyka zachęcił także do stosowania porozumień dotyczących adekwatności kapitałowej oraz ustalenia rozważnych zasad w instytucjach bankowych. W tym kontekście, Narodowy Bank Słowacji zaczyna rozważać zmiany w finansowaniu kredytów na nieruchomości mieszkalne z powodu możliwego ryzyka, które związane jest z ewolucją wartości kredytu i nieruchomości. Niniejszy artykuł koncentruje się na obecnej sytuacji na rynku mieszkaniowym w Republice Słowackiej pod kątem stóp procentowych, finansowania kredytowego nowych projektów mieszkalnych, dostępności mieszkaniowej (indeksu dostępności mieszkaniowej), a także popytu i podaży.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono sposoby przezwyciężania skutków kryzysu finansowego w latach 2007-2009 przez Republikę Federalną Niemiec. Omówiono stan gospodarki niemieckiej przed kryzysem i skutki kryzysu dla tej gospodarki. Szczegółowo zaprezentowano podjęte działania antykryzysowe wspomagające koniunkturę: Pakiet „0”, „I” i „II” oraz dokonano oceny skuteczności tych działań w zakresie zarządzania ryzykiem rozwoju ekonomicznego w Niemczech. Program rządu przewidywał dużą i racjonalnie przygotowaną pomoc dla gospodarki, co zyskało akceptację Bundestagu i Bundesratu. Dzięki konkretnym i zdecydowanym działaniom zaradczym wpływ kryzysu na gospodarkę Niemiec okazał się mniejszy niż zakładano, a jego przezwyciężenie – stosunkowo szybkie i skuteczne.
EN
In his article, the author presented the ways of overcoming consequences of the financial crisis of the years 2007-2009 by the Federal Republic of Germany. He discussed the state of German economy before the crisis and the crisis consequences for this economy. He set out in detail the undertaken anti-crisis measures supporting economic situation: the package ‘0’, ‘I’ and ‘II’ as well as evaluated efficacy of those measures as regards economic development risk management in Germany. The governmental programme anticipated an extensive and reasonably prepared aid for the economy what received acceptance of the Bundestag and the Bundesrat. Owing to specific and decisive remedial measures, impact of the crisis on the German economy appeared to be minor than it had been anticipated, and its overcoming – relatively quick and efficient.
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