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EN
Background: During the last two decades Pakistan was one of the most attractive countries that received Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) among developing economies, and especially in first half of the last decade the growth was so rapid and sustainable in different industries as well as in agriculture. In Pakistani economy the role of Foreign Direct Investment is very important. Policies are clear about the foreign investment even then adjustments are made according to the time, objective, needs and economic circumstances in the country. Methods: The present study aims to investigate the determinants of foreign investment in Pakistan by using Gravity model. By using panel data of FDI which is used as dependent variable and Gross domestic product, Gross domestic product per capita, Gross domestic product growth rate, Inflation rate, Trade, Total government expenditure, Population growth and Distance used as independent variable from 1999 to 2009 for empirical consequences, the study encompasses the examination of Foreign Direct Investment inflows from different countries and their geographical distance from Pakistan. Results: Two type of test is used (1) fixed and (2) random effect to check the relationship among foreign direct investment and independent variables. In our both models distance shows a negative impact on the decision to make an investment by investing partner while GDP and GDP growth have a positive and significant impact. Gravity in this regards does not effect that much for foreign direct investment attraction because results are negatively significant in this case that shows higher distance is a hurdle for the inflow of foreign investment but rest of the variables are significantly positive and related to the inflow of foreign investment except population growth which is negatively correlated. Conclusion: This research concludes that there is a strong evidence of existence of gravity between Pakistan and its investing partners. It is also conclude that those countries have less distance from Pakistan, having more investment in Pakistan, therefore, attracting these countries for investment in Pakistan would cause a greater chance of economic growth in Pakistan.
EN
This paper contributes to the discussion about economic effects of monetary integration and the problem of model stability during economic crisis. The fundamental goal of this research is twofold: firstly, to investigate the effect of different stages of economic integration on export to EU and non-EU countries, from becoming a member of the European Union (EU) to the Eurozone (EZ). Secondly, to check whether the functional form of the model can be considered stable over time as in the meantime the world entered the crisis phase. For an empirical test a data set covering the period from 1994 to 2010 has been used. The standard factors of gravity models, such as the size of the markets of trade partners, GDP per capita of trade partners etc. have been tested in the log-linear specification of the gravity model. In order to control the effect of monetary integration, several dummy variables indicating the process of monetary integration were added. Positive effects of growing GDP and GDP per capita, as usual, are expected. What is also assumed is that participation in amonetary union does not enhance exports to the EU and Eurozone countries. To test for this hypothesis, and to exercise control over additional factors, a model based on panel data with the use of Hausman-Taylor method was estimated. Surprisingly, it was found out that even though the impact of joining the EU and ERM on export has been positive, joining the Eurozone has given the opposite result. It will also be demonstrated that some of the parameters could be considered stable in the long run, but this is not relevant to all of them. Keywords: international trade, monetary integration, gravity model.
EN
The importance of international trade for the economic development of any country, on the one hand, and the decreasing rates of goods turnover within the EU countries in recent years, on the other hand, reveal the relevance of the research on the assessment of Latvia’s trade potential with the EU countries. The aim of this study is to measure and assess Latvia’s export potential with the European Union countries based on the gravity model. Since the development of trade relations is influenced by various factors, the article provides an overview of empirical studies that analyse various factors determining the level of trade among the countries. Possible volume of exports from Latvia to the EU countries was calculated on the basis of gravity model; calculations were conditioned by several factors included in the model, such as GDP, geographical distance and the degree of country’s economic freedom. The article also provides an assessment of Latvia’s export potential realisation extent. The method described in this article allowed applying the gravity model for the assessment of cooperation between Latvia and the EU countries, and was suitable for the quantitative evaluation of the extent to which export potential was realised in other countries
EN
Key features of the current foreign trade of Serbia are high and growing foreign trade deficit, and a small number of export partners. The fact that Serbia places its almost entire export on the markets of Italy, Germany and three former Yugoslavian countries implies the need for export diversification. Finding new or revitalizing former markets is vital for overcoming various weaknesses of Serbia’s foreign trade. Gravity model was used for establishing determinants of Serbia’s export and potential export directions. Coefficients of Serbia’s export, determined in a few earlier studies are based on the figures that were valid before the global economic crisis. As the export to the EU countries which are geographically closest to Serbia decreased during the crisis, it is assumed that the parameters have now changed and the factor of importance of geographical distance decreased. The obtained coefficients are then applied to the countries of the Caspian Basin. This is the region which, due to its numerous geographical and economic characteristics, is seen as an adequate export market, although its distance is relatively large. Research based on applying of gravity model has found that in some countries of the region, there is plenty of „space“ for Serbia’s exports.
EN
The paper aims to identify the determinants of exports in high-technology sectors (high-tech, HT) of Visegrad countries (the Visegrad four, V4: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and the core member states of the European Union (EU). Based on the augmented gravity model, we estimate the regressions on panel data of the bilateral export flows of the EU-15 and V4 with the rest of the world in 1999−2011, by employing the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator. The comparison of the estimations of overall export flows with the estimates explicitly done for the high-tech sectors allows us to outline the main characteristics of the existing gap in high-tech export performances of the EU-15 and V4. Estimation results find that while for the EU-15, human capital accumulation is statistically significant and export flows increase with similarity in physical capital accumulation of the trade partner; for V4, instead of similarity, the difference in physical capital stock increases exports and human capital accumulation does not yield statistically significant effects.
EN
The aim of this paper is to discuss changes in the spatial distribution of cities that perform the command and control function created by the largest corporations, based on the method of gravity centres. The analysis was performed both for individual sectors of the economy as well as for the global scale. A shift occurred in an easterly direction. This also pertains to sector indices, although the centroids of knowledge-based sectors, such as information technology and healthcare, shifted the most in the direction of Asia. At the same time, information technology was the only sector whose centroid shifted to the west in the study period. Moreover, the magnitude of the shift of the centre of gravity of the number of corporate headquarters in the studied cities does not converge to the shift of the centroid based on the value of the financial potential of the companies.
EN
The article examines the economic determinants of interregional migrations in Poland in 1995-2006. The author describes selected theoretical issues linked with the process and analyzes the influence of economic factors on interregional migration flows. Roszkowska evaluates the influence of selected macroeconomic variables on interregional migration flows using gravity models and data such as GDP per capita, labor productivity, unemployment, and the level of urbanization in individual provinces in Poland in 1995-2006. The analysis enabled the author to identify the most popular destinations for migration. These are chiefly provinces with a relatively well-developed infrastructure, a modern labor force structure by sector, and high economic development indicators. Outlying and poor provinces are the least popular destinations as far as migration is concerned, Roszkowska says. She concludes that the economic development of individual provinces-measured with indicators such as GDP per capita, the situation on regional labor markets, including differences in pay and unemployment rates, and the size of urban centers-has a statistically significant impact on interregional migration flows in Poland.
8
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EN
Conflict is a costly endeavor. However, conflict itself is of unobservable magnitude which makes statistical inference problematic. The long-run economic cost of conflict is calculated as the sum of the contemporaneous costs and the discounted value of future costs. Typically, researchers use War or Militarized Interstate Conflicts as independent, discrete events to calculate its contemporaneous effect and then introduce a time binary variable to estimate the lagged effects since the end of the event. The conflict datasets accurately recognize the dates of the core conflict. However, they ignore the possibility that a lack of militarized conflict does not necessarily mean that issues have been settled, thus we are underestimating overall costs. The present study estimates the economic costs of rivalry. The international rivalry cycle is a process in which a pair of states create and sustain a relationship of atypical hostility for some period. This paper is part of the renaissance of research activity in the applied economics of international trade. The gravity model is used to determine the economic cost of Rivalry on bilateral trade using panel data. At the aggregate level, strategic and enduring rivalries have a negative and significant effect on trade flow. The results show that the total effect of rivalry accounts for48%-57% of the fall in bilateral trade volume, which is equivalent in cost to 19% of the ad-valorem tax. If the rivalry is disaggregated by claim type: spatial, positional, and mixed, then we observe that the cost varies substantially with the type. Spatial rivalry explains 16%-26% of the fall in trade volume, while positional and mixed rivalry explain 49%-57% and 77%-82%, respectively.
EN
The aim of this paper is to present a proposal of two-stage approach for determining dependencies between socio-economic aspects and migration phenomena and also to make an attempt to apply it in the analysis of internal migrations in Poland in 2004-2011. A construction of econometric gravity model using taxonomical measure has been presented. Significance, intensity and impact direction of selected socio-economic aspects on domes voivodeships are much more mobile territorially; a poor situation of a region is an impeding factor of migratory movement. Regional labour market situation constitutes a deciding reason of population inflow, while a standard of living plays a negligible role. Migration scope is relatively slight in Poland, significant population flows take place between neighbouring regions. Economic cycle affects an intensity of domestic population flows. During the period of prosperity the flows seem to be more dispersed and one-way in their nature, while in the period of economic crisis they stabilize and a group of destination regions is getting narrowed down.
EN
Internal migration in Italy increased in the 2000s due to foreigners residing in the country. Foreigners have changed the characteristics of Italy’s internal migration. Extended gravity models were run to highlight the differences between the migratory behaviours of Italians and foreigners. The model was implemented to detect the different effects of the Italian and foreign populations, and the distances between the provinces of origin and destinations of the inter-provincial migration of Italians and foreigners. Estimations obtained for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 highlight the different evolutions of the phenomenon.
EN
The multidimensional unfolding analysis which uses in the structure the gravity function allows consideration and analysis of additional factors (such as market share or brand loyalty), which affect the assessments of respondents preference scores. In classical unfolding models these factors are ignored or assumed to be the same for all objects. The gravity unfolding analysis can also be used for graphical presentation of the data contained in the asymmetric similarity matrix expressing information about changes in respondents’ preferences in a definite period. As a result, instead of the configuration of points representing objects and respondents, the configuration of points representing objects at different periods is obtained.
PL
Wielowymiarowa analiza unfolding wykorzystująca w swojej konstrukcji funkcję grawitacji pozwala na uwzględnienie w analizie dodatkowych czynników (takich jak udział w rynku lub lojalność względem marki), które mają wpływ na oceny preferencji respondentów. W klasycznej analizie unfolding udział ten jest ignorowany lub przyjmuje się, że jest on taki sam dla wszystkich obiektów. Grawitacyjna analiza unfolding może być również wykorzystana do graficznej prezentacji danych zawartych w niesymetrycznej macierzy podobieństw. Macierz taka zawiera informacje na temat zmian preferencji respondentów w pewnym okresie. W rezultacie nie otrzymujemy na mapie percepcyjnej, tak jak w przypadku analizy unfolding, konfiguracji punktów i respondentów, ale konfigurację punktów reprezentujących obiekty w różnych okresach.
12
88%
EN
This paper analysis the gravity model of interregional trade of Irkutsk region the base of statistical data on gross regional products and trade flows between Russian regions. We find that the market size significantly impacts the trade volumes. The elasticity of export on importer region size is approximately equal to one. Moreover, it appears that the distance significantly negatively impacts the trade volumes. The elasticity of export on distance to the importer region is approximately equal to -1,5. We also find that Irkutsk region trade with Eastern regions is significantly (about 11 times) greater. Furthermore, we arrive at the conclusions that the absence of railroad significantly negatively (about 4 times) impacts the trade flows.
EN
The article is focused on evaluating the significance of rail passenger transport in transport contacts among regional capitals in Czechia representing the most important centres in the settlement hierarchy. The review of the particular connections works with the values of the year 2007 and is based on the relationship between supply and demand for rail passenger traffic. The evaluation is based on the number of rail links within the working day, while assuming that the supply is influenced by the location of the centre in the transport network and its position in the settlement hierarchy. Real demand data represent the number of tickets sold by the Czech Railways. Theoretical size of the interaction is obtained by application of the gravity model. Based on the final evaluation of indicators of supply and demand for rail traffic among regional capitals and their interactions, relations are described where demand is substantially below, respectively beyond the level of real supply and theoretical interaction, which is based on the importance of centres and their accessibility of the railway transport in time. In conclusion, the opportunities for the development of infrastructure in the selected connection in relation to transport planning are outlined, using the obtained results.
EN
This paper studies the ex-post trade efects of China's multilateral, regional and bilateral trade liberalization using augmented gravity and panel data estimation methods for the period 1995-2016. China's accession to the WTO was revealed to have had a significant impact on the volume of trade as well as on bilateral exports and imports. Regional trade agreements and the majority of bilateral trade agreements were found not to be efective in increasing China's foreign trade. Only the agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Switzerland were efective in increasing China's trade volume. Moreover, the results for Chile were driven by increases in both exports and imports, while for Costa Rica and Switzerland only by increased imports from these countries.
EN
Spatial analyses suffer from modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). This occurs while operating on aggregated data determined for high-level territorial units, e.g. official statistics for countries. Generalization process deprives the data of variation. Carrying out research excluding territorial distribution of a phenomenon affects the analysis results and reduces their reliability. The paper proposes to use symbolic data analysis (SDA) to reduce MAUP. SDA proposes an alternative form of individual data aggregation and deals with multivariate analysis of interval-valued, multi-valued and histogram data. The paper discusses the scale effect of MAUP which occurs in a gravity model of population migrations and shows how SDA can deal with this problem. Symbolic interval-valued data was used to determine the economic distance between regions which served as a separation function in the model. The proposed approach revealed that economic disparities in Poland are lower than official statistics show but they are still one of the most important factors of domestic migration flows.
PL
Artykuł stanowi oryginalną syntezę badań dostępności i mobilności prowadzonych w Instytucie Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania Polskiej Akademii Nauk (IGiPZ PAN) w kontekście uwarunkowań przestrzennych rozwoju przemysłu w Polsce, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem rozkładu przestrzennego ludności, PKB oraz lokalizacji spółek prawa handlowego. Autorzy podjęli się analizy dostęp- ności potencjałowej w transporcie ciężarowym, gdzie na miarę atrakcyjności celu wpływają zarówno liczba ludności, jak i PKB. Do analizy empirycznej wykorzystano autorską aplikację OGAM. W części artykułu poświęconej mobilności wykorzystano rezultaty modelowego rozkładu ruchu na krajowej i wojewódzkiej sieci drogowej oraz oprogramowanie VISUM. Przedstawiono oryginalną metodę, która porównuje wyniki modelu grawitacyjnego z rzeczywistym rozkładem ruchu, wynikającym z pomiarów natężenia ruchu w sieci, w odniesieniu do podróży między spółkami prawa handlowego odbywanych przez przedsiębiorców (biz- nesmenów, przedstawicieli handlowych itd.). Rozkład teoretyczny ruchu pojazdów osobowych porównano z wykorzystaniem analizy kartograficznej i pokazano przeszacowanie lub niedoszacowanie ruchu względem wyników generalnego pomiaru ruchu (GPR) w 2010 roku. W badaniu dostępności i mobilności wykorzystano macierz czasów podróży na poziomie gminnym (2321 jednostek). Prędkości obliczono na podstawie modelu prędkości IGiPZ PAN. Wskazano, że modele potencjału i grawitacji należą do mało popularnych metod analizy uwarunkowań transportowych rozwoju przemysłu w Polsce i dają duże możliwości w zakresie wskazywania potencjalnych lokalizacji dla nowych inwestycji w kontekście transportu towarów i podróży służbowych.
XX
The article is an original synthesis of accessibility and mobility modelling that is carried-out in the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences (IGSO PAS). The paper takes into account the spatial context of industry development in Poland, with particular emphasis on the spatial distribution of population, GDP and location of commercial companies. The potential accessibility in HGV transport, where attractiveness depends on both population and GDP is taken into consideration. For the empirical analysis the OGAM application was used. In the part of the paper devoted to mobility issues, a model uses the results of the distribution of traffic on the national and voivodeship road network and VISUM software. The original method compares the results of the gravity model for travel between commercial companies carried out by entrepreneurs (businessmen, sales representatives, etc.) with the real traffic distribution. The overestimation/underestimation of traffic with respect to the results of the General Traffic Survey in 2010 was shown. Both in the accessibility and mobility studies a matrix of travel time at the municipal level (2,321 units) was used. Speeds were calculated based on the IGSO PAS speed model. It was pointed out that the potential and gravity models are still not very popular methods of analysis of determinants of industrial development in Poland. They provide the opportunities for indicating potential locations for new investments in the context of both freight transport and business travel.
PL
Celem artykułu jest weryfikacja hipotezy zakładającej, że model grawitacyjny handlu międzynarodowego w zadowalającym stopniu wyjaśnia przepływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych z krajów tzw. UE 15 do krajów UE 12. Postanowiono sprawdzić, na ile augmentacja klasycznego modelu grawitacyjnego handlu międzynarodowego pozwala – poprzez operacjonalizację określonych zmiennych – na identyfikację czynników „przyciągających” i „odpychających” BIZ. W analizie empirycznej posłużono się analizą panelową z zastosowaniem estymatora Hausmana-Taylora wobec faktu występowania zmiennych stałych w czasie. Wyniki pozwoliły na pozytywną weryfikację hipotezy głównej. Ponadto, o ile decyzje inwestycyjne dotyczące wyboru kraju lokaty uwarunkowane są wielkością rynku docelowego, o tyle czynnik dystansu geograficznego nadal pozostaje destymulantą akumulacji BIZ w krajach przyjmującym. Wykazano dodatkowo, że przynależność do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej (UGW), różnice w opodatkowaniu, uwarunkowania historyczne i stabilność inflacji mają istotny wpływ na formowanie wartości skumulowanej BIZ w krajach lokaty. Stwierdzono również, że Polska utrzymywała relatywnie stabilną pozycję lidera na tle UE 12 na rynku pozyskiwania BIZ z krajów „starej UE”. Z przeprowadzonego badania wynika, iż napływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych wpływa pozytywnie na wzrost gospodarczy w wielu płaszczyznach. W świetle przeprowadzonych badań empirycznych wpływ BIZ na gospodarkę zdaje się być pozytywny, jednakże w zróżnicowanym stopniu, gdy analizowane są różne kraje. Jest to spójne z twierdzeniem, że wpływ napływu BIZ na gospodarkę kraju goszczącego uzależniony jest od warunków początkowych. Sugeruje to także, że poszczególne kraje powinny kreować mechanizm przyciągający inwestycje w oparciu o wzmacnianie posiadanych przewag.
EN
The purpose of this article is to test the hypothesis stating that the gravity model of international trade explains the flow of the FDI from the old EU 15 to the new EU 12 member states satisfactorily. It has been decided to explain how the augmentation of the classic gravity model of international trade allows for the identification of “push” and “pull” FDI factors. The empirical analysis has been conducted with the use of panel data approach using Hausman–Taylor estimator. General results allows for the verification of the main hypothesis positively, however some anomalies have been observed. While investment decisions concerning the selection of the target country are determined by the size of the market measured by GDP per capita, the geographical distance is still a destimulant of FDI despite the globalisation processes. The membership in the EU, EMU, taxation differences, historical background seem to be important factors in the context of investment flows direction. It has been also pointed out that Poland was a leader on the background of the FDI inflow from the EU 15. This study shows that the inflow of FDI has generally a positive effect on economic growth in many areas. In the light of empirical research, the impact of FDI on the economy seems to be positive, though in varying degrees when analyzing different countries. This is conclusive with the claim that the effects of FDI inflows on the economy of the host country depend on the initial conditions in these countries. This also suggests that individual countries should create a specific mechanism for attracting investments that should base on strengthening the existing advantages.
PL
W opracowaniu ukazano podobieństwa i różnice między grawitacyjnymi modelami handlu brutto oraz modelami grawitacji handlu wartością dodaną. Modele grawitacyjne wyjaśniające handel wartością dodaną cechują się wyższymi współczynnikami determinacji niż ma to miejsce w przypadku modeli ilustrujących handel mierzony tradycyjnie. Jeżeli chodzi zaś o wyniki oszacowań grawitacyjnych modeli handlu, to podobne znaczenie dla intensywności handlu brutto i wartością dodaną mają PKB eksporterów i importerów oraz różnica PKB per capita między partnerami handlowymi. Oprócz tego, niewielka odległość geograficzna, wspólny język urzędowy oraz przynależność do tego samego ugrupowania mają większe znaczenie dla bardziej intensywnego handlu brutto niż handlu wartością dodaną, co związane jest ze zjawiskiem pośredniego handlu wartością dodaną.
EN
In this article similarities and differences between gravity models of gross trade and gravity models of value-added trade are discussed. Gravity models explaining value-added trade are characterized by the higher determination coefficients than gravity models illustrating gross trade. According to the estimation results, more intensive gross and value-added trade are accompanied by higher exporter’s and importer’s GDP and lower the difference in GDP per capita between trading partners. Additionally, shorter geographic distance, common official language and membership in the same regional trading arrangements are much more important for more intensive gross trade than for value added-trade.
EN
The paper explores the application of the gravity model, namely the delineation of the urban predominant influence areas via the generation of the multiplicatively weighted Voronoi diagram, to the socio-economic regionalisation and administrative territorial division of Ukraine, including the existing state of affairs and several proposals on their improvement. The research uses quantitative statistical data on interregional migration and rail passenger traffic within the country, processed via the Statistica analytics software, and a subsequent spatial analysis conducted by GIS. The findings suggest that the gravity model can serve as a tool for optimisation the administrative territorial division, as well as for the delineation of the planning regions and urban hinterlands. At the same time, it has certain limitations and should not be treated as a panacea for regional planning and development.
PL
W artykule dokonano identyfikacji czynników determinujących poziom obrotów handlowych pomiędzy krajami Unii Europejskiej. Zastosowano w tym celu model grawitacji dla danych panelowych. Badanie pozwoliło stwierdzić, że istotny wpływ na poziom wzajemnych obrotów handlowych pomiędzy krajami Unii Europejskiej mają: wielkości gospodarek krajów członkowskich, poziom rozwoju gospodarczego krajów, bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne, poziom tzw. wolności handlowej krajów oraz znaczne relatywne różnice w poziomie rozwoju gospodarczego pomiędzy partnerami handlowymi. Potwierdzono także istnienie ujemnej zależności między odległością geograficzną krajów a wielkością ich wzajemnej wymiany. Stwierdzono również, że po rozszerzeniu Unii Europejskiej o nowe kraje nastąpił istotny wzrost eksportu, zarówno z krajów EU-12 do krajów UE-15, jak i odwrotnie
EN
The article analyzes the impact of potential determinants on the level of trade volume between the member states of the European Union. As a result of the use of gravity model for panel data the identification of a significant impact of the size of the economies of the member states, their level of economic development, foreign direct investment, the level of the so-called trade freedom of countries and of significant differences in the level of economic development between trading partners on the level of their bilateral trade. Also, it confirmed the existence of a negative relationship between the geographical distance and the size of the countries and their mutual exchange and a significant increase in the level of exports, both from the EU-12 to EU-15, and vice versa.
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