Search results

1

Unobserved Component Model with Observed Cycle Use of BTS Data for Short-Term Forecasting of Industrial Production

100%

Dudek S., Pachucki D.

Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

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2011

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vol. 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference

83-100

EN

In the paper we are checking the explanatory power of business tendency survey data (BTS) in short-term forecasts of industrial production within the framework of the unobserved component model (UCM). It is assumed that the "unobserved cyclical component" is common for reference quantitative variable and qualitative variable. In that sense the cyclical fluctuation of industrial production can be approximated by the fluctuations of BTS indicators. We call such a specification of structural time series model the “Unobserved component model with observed cycle" (UCM-OC). To estimate the system we are using the Kalman filter technique. Then we compare the model recursive one-period ahead forecasts to the historical path of the reference series to check its out-of-sample data fit. The forecasting properties are also evaluated against alternative models, i.e. "pure" UCM and ARIMA model. The analysis was performed for Poland and selected European Union countries.

2

Sustainable development potential of an old industrial region: the case of Ukraine

100%

Biloshkurska N., Korniienko T., Biloshkurskyi M.

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Częstochowskiej. Zarządzanie

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2022

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issue 46

22-31

EN

The significance of this study is in the interpretation proposed by the authors of the definition of ‘sustainable development potential of an old industrial region’. The authors have identified and systematised the main components of the sustainable development potential of an old industrial region according to the main classification attributes such as finance, ecology, food security, sociocultural state, infrastructure, marketing of the region, and industrial production potential. The article has a theoretical character and is based on system-structural methods, comparative analysis, graphic method and logical generalization synthesis, induction and deduction, and dialectical and SWOT analysis. The features of the sustainable development of an old industrial region are the concentration of cities around large industrial agglomerations, environmental pollution, and the use of Industry 3.0 and Industry 2.0 obsolete technologies in industrial production. It has been proven that the complex problem of modernization in old industrial regions of Ukraine by transitioning to Industry 4.0 technologies requires necessary decisions to be taken at the level of state and local authorities, as well as the level of industrial owners.

3

Forecasting industrial production in Poland – a comparison of different methods

100%

Acedański J.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

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2013

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issue 1(39)

40-51

EN

In this paper we compared the accuracy of a few forecasting methods of the industrial production index in Poland. Naïve forecasts, simple autoregressive models, leading indicator models, factor models as well as joint models were included in the considerations. We used the out-of-sample RMSE and CPA tests as the main measures of the predictions accuracy. We found that three models provided the best predictions in most cases – the models with the PMI index and with the PMI and German IFO indexes as leading indicators as well as joint forecasts.

4

Output and Expected Returns in Central and Eastern European Countries

89%

Gajdka J., Pietraszewski P.

Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia

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2020

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vol. 54

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issue 4

EN

Theoretical background: Although some controversy remains, some aspects of the predictability of aggregate stock market returns in the United States and other industrialized countries appear to be relatively well established. Intertemporal asset pricing models based on the paradigm of investor rationality and market efficiency imply that various macro variables describing the state of the economy may forecast future returns on the aggregate stock market.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to present the results of a preliminary study which set out to determine whether the ratio of the stock index to the aggregate output in the economy and future rates of return in the aggregate stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe are significantly related to each other over different time horizons.Research methods: Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent estimators with a small sample degrees of freedom adjustment were used in regressions to track overlapping data problem and small sample bias.Main findings: The analysis of the key market indices has shown that they explain much of the variation in the long-horizon future cumulative returns, as well as in cumulative excess returns.

5

Bayesian Inference for a Deterministic Cycle with Time-Varying Amplitude: The Case of the Growth Cycle in European Countries

75%

Lenart Ł.

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

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2018

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issue 3

6

Changes in industry and services sectors in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic

75%

Rachwał T., Dominiak J.

Quaestiones Geographicae

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2022

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vol. 41

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issue 4

41-56

EN

In 2020, the World Health Organization announced the global COVID-19 pandemic, which was followed by unprecedented constraints on society and the economy. The restrictions imposed had an impact on the transformation in industry and services sectors. The pandemic, however, affected particular industry sections and types of services to a different degree. Overall, the industry sector is assumed to have been less affected by the crisis, because the government restrictions did not embrace industrial production for the most part. Services faced a different situation; some of them were not provided due to top-down decisions. Therefore, the vulnerability of industry and services to such a strong external impact varies. The article aims to identify the degree and trends in changes in industry and services sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine the regularities stemming from a different degree of vulnerability of both sectors to such a powerful external stimulus. The study examines changes occurring in different industries and types of services (by the Polish Classification of Economic Activity/NACE 2.0) by way of statistical indicator analysis and using Statistics Poland and Eurostat data. The conducted analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic influence on the industry and services sector leads to the conclu- sions that its impact on the industry sector was very time-limited-a sharp fall in gross value added in industry oc- curred mainly in the second quarter of 2020. The pandemic had a modest effect on industry employment, primarily as a result of anti-crisis shields and the will to maintain the potential of labour resources. In the services sector, accommo- dation and food services suffered the most. The significant falls were noted in the transport section as well as cultural, sports and personal services. Business services which were transferred to the Internet and were provided online ended up the most resilient. The ultimate winner of the pandemic is ICT services, especially electronic ones, which have re- placed, wherever possible, traditional types of services.

7

A new industrial strategy for Europe - new indicators of the results of its implementation

75%

Krekhivskyi O., Salikhova O.

Statistics in Transition new series

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2023

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vol. 24

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issue 1

213-228

EN

This paper discusses the experiences resulting from EU’s adoption and implementation of a wide variety of policy measures in response to the COVID-19 crisis. These measures included stimulating the relocation and expansion of manufacturing to reduce vulnerability, depending on imports, ensuring the stability and development of industrial production. Using the example of the pharmaceutical industry in EU27 in the years 1995–2018, the study proposes and tests a new approach to assessing the consequences of relocation policies aimed at developing the local production potential, increasing the value added by activity, and expanding the share of local value added in industry exports. Specifically, the focus is on the formation of statistical analysis tools for assessing the changes of the specialisation and identifying the country's comparative advantages. The authors propose new indicators: RSP – coefficient of Revealed Specialisation of Production, CAVA – coefficient of Comparative Advantage in Value Added by Activity and EVA – coefficient of Comparative Advantages in the Domestic Value Added Exports. Additionally, formulas for their calculation are provided which allow the assessment of the position of Ukraine’s industries among a reference group, widening the ‘revealed comparative advantage’ concept. Finally, a test of the new methodology showed that it can be used to identify the comparative advantages of EU member states supported by state assistance programmes involving the implementation of business projects which aim to develop domestic production.

8

Kultura bezpieczeństwa pracy kobiet w przedsiębiorstwie przemysłowym

75%

Łakomy K., Nowacki K., Ocieczek W.

Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie

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2016

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issue 3(31)

131-140

PL

Społeczne aspekty bezpieczeństwa pracy są jednymi z istotnych zagadnień, gdyż czynnik ludzki jest przyczyną większości wypadków przy pracy (około 70% przyczyn według danych GUS). Dlatego celem zarządzania bezpieczeństwem pracy w przedsiębiorstwach powinno być dążenie do wzrostu kultury bezpieczeństwa, która jest istotną częścią składową kultury organizacji. Wzrost ten jest uzależniony między innymi od zaangażowania, z jakim pracodawca i pracownicy przestrzegają założonych wartości i norm postępowania kształtujących środowisko pracy. Na podstawie obserwacji zachowań można przyjąć, że pracownikami, którzy lepiej rozumieją oraz akceptują potrzeby zmian w obszarze bhp, są kobiety. W artykule przedstawiono wyniki oceny kultury bezpieczeństwa pracy kobiet w jednym z zakładów przemysłowych, przyjmując jako kryteria porównawcze płeć, wiek oraz staż pracy. Przeprowadzone badania wykazały, że istnieją różnice w postrzeganiu kultury bezpieczeństwa pracy przez kobiety i mężczyzn, szczególnie w obszarze oceny organizacji pracy pod kątem jej bezpieczeństwa. Różnice te mogą wynikać z odmiennego postrzegania środowiska pracy i zaangażowania pracowników obu płci w jego kształtowanie. Główna konkluzja wynikająca z badań dotyczy konieczności uwzględniania oceny środowiska pracy przez kobiety, co niestety często jest pomijane w konsultacjach na temat kształtowania bezpieczeństwa pracy prowadzonych przez pracodawców.

EN

Social aspects of safety at work are important issues, because the human factor is the cause of most accidents at work (approximately 70% of causes). Therefore, the purpose of work safety management in enterprises should be striving for the growth of a culture of safety, which is an important part of the culture of an organisation. The increase depends, among others, on the involvement with which the employer and employees comply with the established values and standards of conduct shaping the work environment. Based on observation of behaviours, it can be assumed that the employees who better understand and accept the need for changes in the area of health and safety at work are women. This article presents the results of the evaluation of the safety culture of women’s work in one of industrial plants, taking sex, age and the length of service as comparative criteria. Research has shown that there are differences in the perception of the culture of work safety by women and men, particularly in the area of assessment of the organisation of work with regard to its safety. The differences may result from differences in the perception of the working environment and the involvement of workers of both sexes in its evolution. The main conclusion arising from the research concerns the need to take into account the assessment of the working environment by women, which unfortunately is often overlooked in the consultations on the formation of work safety, conducted by employers.

9

Contemporary Changes in the Role and Spatial Structure of Industrial Production in Hungary

75%

Pál Á., Győri F.

Prace Komisji Geografii Przemysłu Polskiego Towarzystwa Geograficznego

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2016

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vol. Volume 30, Issue 3

127-146

EN

The aim of our paper is to offer a brief survey of the stages of development of industrial productionin Hungary and the transfomation that followed the changing of Hungary’s political system, as well as the maintrends in the contemporary process of re-industrialization. Hungarian industry has long traditions; as early asthe beginning of the 20th century, in certain branches, it was among the leading countries in the world. Afterthe fall of the centrally planned economy of the communist system and following the crisis treatment policiesof the post-communist years, Hungarian industry, today, has to survive in an open economy. The process ofre-industrializaton in Hungary is, basically, an integral part of global industrial change while, at the same time,it is largely dependent on local industrial developments. The volume indices, the value of industrial investmentsand the number of employees in industry, are all indicators of a positive change. The processing industryrepresents a considerable proportion of industrial production in Hungary and, in addition, vehicle manufacturingis the most dynamically developing segment. At the same time, industry in Hungary can still be characterizedby a dual structure; more than two thirds of its production value us produced by large companies.Small- and medium-sized companies have the possibility of being integrated into the production structure assuppliers. Some of Hungary’s traditional industrial branches have deteriorated, while other segments havebeen able to change their structure and become dynamic again. The main focus of industrial production – dueto capital investments by foreigners – has shifted towards the west, and the largest portion of its productionvalue now comes from Hungary’s western and central Transdanubian regions. The process of re-industralizationis beneficial for those regions in which there is an adequate and ready supply of human resources.

10

„Herbarium czystych zewnętrzności”: Siegfried Kracauer, Busby Berkeley, Sherrie Levine

63%

Majewski T., Rejniak Majewska – A.

Estetyka i Krytyka

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2009

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issue 15-16

64-87

EN

For Kracauer, the regular abstract patterns viewed in the gymnastic stadiums and in the musical revues presented an analogy with modern life and technological Ratio. Ornament is a place of their meeting and mutual transformation, and thus the crucial point, which decides the future of the modernity project. Busby Berkeley’s choreography during the New Deal period is an extension of this phenomenon. In Gold Diggers of 1933 and Footlight Parade aesthetics of Fordism intercrosses with the Pythagorean and Renaissance Neo-platonic vision of an orderly and purposive cosmos, in which Eros is a kind of coordinating and organizing force (both in a cosmological and social way). Sherrie Levine’s work, which is a postmodern appropriation of Berkeley’s trademark, follows a similar method to undermine the distinction between individual creativity and well-regulated collective, between modern art and industrial production.

11

Causal Link Between the Polish Stock Market and Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

63%

Urjasz S.

Problemy Zarządzania

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2019

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issue 3/2019 (83)

179-196

PL

W niniejszym artykule zaproponowano badanie dynamiki w dwukierunkowej relacji między czynnikami makroekonomicznymi a rynkiem akcji w Polsce. W celu weryfikacji przyczynowości Grangera oraz analizy przebiegu funkcji odpowiedzi na impuls wykorzystano model wektorowej autoregresji. Analiza opiera się na danych miesięcznych i obejmuje okres od stycznia 2004 roku do grudnia 2018 roku. Wyniki badania wskazują, że indeks giełdowy znacząco przewodzi indeksowi produkcji przemysłowej i związek ten jest pozytywny. Równocześnie stopy procentowe nie są jedną z najważniejszych zmiennych, które oddziałują na ceny akcji. JEL: C32, C50, E44, G1 null The creation of the English-language version of these publications is fi nanced in the framework of contract No. 607/P-DUN/2018 by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education committed to activities aimed at the promotion of education.

EN

This article proposes a study of dynamics in the bi-directional relationship between macroeconomic factors and the stock market in Poland. In order to verify Granger’s causality and analyse the course of the impulse response function, a model of vector autoregression was used. The analysis is based on monthly data and covers the period from January 2004 to December 2018. The results of the investigation show that the stock exchange index is a significant guide for the industrial production index and the relation is positive. At the same time, interest rates are not one of the most important variables that affect stock prices. JEL: C32, C50, E44, G1 null The creation of the English-language version of these publications is fi nanced in the framework of contract No. 607/P-DUN/2018 by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education committed to activities aimed at the promotion of education.

12

Problemy współczesnej gospodarki Ukrainy — analiza struktury PKB

51%

Butyter D.

Studenckie Prace Prawnicze, Administratywistyczne i Ekonomiczne

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2013

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vol. 14

43 - 54

EN

Each sector of Ukraine’s economy needs changes as well as allocation of great financial resources for competitive and proper functioning. Solving the main problems of development of Ukraine’s economy will make this country a major player on the international arena. The sources of highest income in the economy of Ukraine include mining and metallurgy sector, but it is so not due to innovative economy, but due to support from the state, and large private capital investments.

Refine search results

Unobserved Component Model with Observed Cycle Use of BTS Data for Short-Term Forecasting of Industrial Production

Sustainable development potential of an old industrial region: the case of Ukraine

Forecasting industrial production in Poland – a comparison of different methods

Output and Expected Returns in Central and Eastern European Countries

Bayesian Inference for a Deterministic Cycle with Time-Varying Amplitude: The Case of the Growth Cycle in European Countries

Changes in industry and services sectors in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic

A new industrial strategy for Europe - new indicators of the results of its implementation

Kultura bezpieczeństwa pracy kobiet w przedsiębiorstwie przemysłowym

Contemporary Changes in the Role and Spatial Structure of Industrial Production in Hungary

„Herbarium czystych zewnętrzności”: Siegfried Kracauer, Busby Berkeley, Sherrie Levine

Causal Link Between the Polish Stock Market and Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

Problemy współczesnej gospodarki Ukrainy — analiza struktury PKB