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Jakość prognostyczna wskaźników testu koniunktury przemysłowej dla Polski w przekroju województw

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Kaźmierska-Zatoń M., Zatoń W.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2014
|
issue 4(46)
85-97
EN
In this article the evaluation of the quality of indicators of industrial tendency survey in the Polish voivodeships in the short-term is presented. The attention is focused on the multi-faceted comparison of forecasts and assessments of the economic situation expressed by entrepreneurs. The tools used in the study are: graphic description and quantitative measures (Pearson correlation coefficient, a sign consistency index, a dynamic direction consistency index, sMAPE and Theil coefficients). Data source used were monthly data published by the CSO on the industrial tendency survey. Considering average values, both across voivodeships and some distinguished business characteristics, monthly assessments and forecasts of industrial tendency are consistent. Forecast quality of industrial tendency survey can be described as satisfactory. However, there are relatively large differences in the forecast quality across voivodeships as well as across business characteristics. The quality of the forecasts in terms of the direction consistency is clearly better than regarding the scale of the error.
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