Search results - CEJSH

1

Szok inflacyjny w Polsce i możliwe ścieżki reakcji ze strony polityki makroekonomicznej

100%

Morawski I.

Zeszyty Prawnicze BAS

|

2022

|

issue 4(76)

23-48

EN

The purpose of the article is to introduce the nature of macroeconomic policy dilemmas in Poland. The hypotheses concerning the sources of inflation, the macroeconomic policy response options, and the summary of the benefits and costs of disinflationary policies are presented.

2

HOW DEMOGRAPHY AFFECTS THE ECONOMY - IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON INFLATION

80%

Broniatowska P.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

|

2018

|

vol. 19

|

issue 1

1-11

EN

The motivation of this paper is to check whether inflation is linked to the population age structure. To check this hypothesis, a panel data model is used. We regress the changes in CPI on a set of macroeconomic variables. The results of the estimations suggest that there may be a relation between demography and low-frequency inflation. A larger old-age dependency ratio is correlated with lower inflation. This may confirm some of the previous empirical findings that ageing is deflationary when related to increased life expectancy.

3

Nowokeynesowska hybrydowa krzywa Philipsa – szacunki dla Polski . w oparciu o dane miesięczne

80%

Baranowski P., Leszczyńska A.

Studia Prawno-Ekonomiczne

|

2010

|

vol. LXXXI (81)

209-218

EN

The purpose of the paper is to estimate parameters of the New Keynesian Philips Curve, NKPC, for Poland by means of monthly data. The so called hybrid NKPC that is taken in the investigation extends the NKPC by adaptive expectations, which allows for implementation of the theoretical New Keynesian model to empirical analyses. Starting with theoretical specification, the authors provide the reader with statistical data and the estimation method used in the research, which is followed by presentation of empirical outcomes and conclusions.

4

Kwantowe stworzenie Wszechświata

80%

Heller M.

Zagadnienia Filozoficzne w Nauce

|

2007

|

issue 41

3-15

PL

The paper discusses the idea of quantum creation of the universe. After a few remarks concerning inflationary models and Tryon's idea of the world's origin as a fluctuation in the preexisting vacuum, the Hartle-Hawking quantum creation model is presented. Its structure and assumptions are discussed, and interpretative difficulties related to the mechanism of 'quantum creation' pointed out. The paper discusses the idea of quantum creation of the universe. After a few remarks concerning inflationary models and Tryon's idea of the world's origin as a fluctuation in the preexisting vacuum, the Hartle-Hawking quantum creation model is presented. Its structure and assumptions are discussed, and interpretative difficulties related to the mechanism of 'quantum creation' pointed out.

5

Czy władza, w imię dobrych intencji może łamać zasady równości obywateli? Kto odpowiada za poziom inflacji i co z tego wynika?

80%

Hoppe G., Kraszewski R.

Pieniądze i Więź

|

2012

|

vol. 15

|

issue 2(55)

132-136

EN

The article presents an inconsistency of the provisions of tax from individuals, concerning the tax on capital income, with the articles of the Constitution and also with the loss of money value in time. Logical reasoning and presented example show that in the light of established law the state makes an assignment of the property of its citizens.

6

THE INFLATION IMPACT OF SELECTED EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERS ON POLISH INFLATION

80%

Czaja J., Kuźmiński Ł.

Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse

|

2012

|

vol. 8

|

issue 2

11-24

EN

The article aims at determining the inflation influence between Poland and selected EU member states. Although for some time the general inflation level in those countries was definitely controllable, the problem seems to be returning. That is why in this article, using the model of Vector AutoRegression (VAR) and Granger causality test, we are attempting to determine inflation influences on Poland. The study confirmed the impact of the selected countries on Polish inflation, expressed the general HICP index. However, in the case of Germany, the method has not proved the existence of such interactions. For this reason, it is made an attempt to clarify the reasons for non-compliance findings with data showing Germany as a Polish main trading partner for more than two decades. The authors try to show that lack of influence can be seen in the excessive generality of the main HICP index and predict that the chosen method confirm the effect of foreign trade indices in the HICP.

7

Zależności między inflacją a bezrobociem w największych gospodarkach świata

80%

Grabia T.

Ekonomista

|

2016

|

issue 4

520-545

PL

Artykuł omawia zależność między inflacją a bezrobociem w największych krajach o gospodarce rynkowej (Stanach Zjednoczonych, Japonii, Niemczech, Francji i W. Brytanii). Badany okres obejmuje lata 1965–2013. W analizie wykorzystano ilustracje graficzne, współczynniki korelacji oraz wskaźniki wrażliwości inflacji na zmianę bezrobocia i odwrotnie (tzw. współczynniki poświęcenia). Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy można wyciągnąć dwa zasadnicze wnioski. Po pierwsze, w żadnym z badanych krajów, poza Japonią, nie można mówić o silnej ujemnej zależności między bezrobociem a inflacją. Po drugie, wzrost bezrobocia we wszystkich badanych krajach w ciągu ostatniego półwiecza może świadczyć o nadmiernej restrykcyjności polityki makroekonomicznej. Z analizy wynika, że dotyczyło to przede wszystkim Niemiec, Japonii i Francji.

EN

The article discusses the relationships between inflation and unemployment in major market economies (the United States, Japan, Germany, France, and Great Britain). The study covers the years 1965–2013. The analysis uses graphs, correlation coefficients and indicators of the sensitivity of inflation to change in unemployment and vice versa (i.e. sacrifice ratio). Based on the analysis, two main conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, there were no strong negative relationships between unemployment and inflation in any of the studied countries, apart from Jaapan. Secondly, a rise in unemployment in all the analyzed countries in the last half-century may indicate excessively strict macroeconomic policies. The analysis shows that it concerned mainly Germany, Japan and France.

RU

В статье рассматривается зависимость между инфляцией и безработицей в крупнейших странах с рыночной экономикой (Соединенных Штатах, Японии, Германии, Франции и Великобритании). Исследуемый период охватывает 1965–2013 гг. Для анализа были использованы графические иллюстрации, коэффициенты корреляции, а также показа- тели чувствительности инфляции к колебаниям уровня безработицы и наоборот (так называемые коэффициенты издержек). На основании проведенного анализа можно сделать два основных вывода. Во- первых, ни в одной из исследуемых стран кроме Японии нельзя говорить о сильной отрицательной зависимости между безработицей и инфляцией. Во-вторых, рост безра- ботицы во всех исследуемых странах на протяжении последних пятидесяти лет может свидетельствовать о чрезмерной жесткости макроэкономической политики. Из анализа вытекает, что это касалось прежде всего Германии, Японии и Франции.

8

Is the Minimum Wage Detrimental to the Economy?

80%

Krajewska A., Krajewski S.

Olsztyn Economic Journal

|

2013

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vol. 8

|

issue 4

317-330

EN

The minimum wage in Poland is relatively low. It amounts only 1,600 PLN in 2013. Therefore, it is no surprise that the trade unions have been making efforts to have it raised to the level of 50% of the average salary. However, this has been met with staunch resistance from employers. The liberal model of the economy, which dominates in Poland, favours employers. Moreover, the attitude of the government, politicians, the media, as well as many scientists towards this is not favourable. These are the objections usually raised against the increase of minimum wage: - raising the minimum wage entails unemployment growth; - an increase in the minimum wage entails an increase in the average pay, with a consequent increase in the inflation rate; - the amount of the minimum wage and its growth rate is frequently the basis for an index-linked pay increase in the budget institutions and some social benefits, which results in an increase in fixed budget spending, which is not justified economically; - the minimum wage level, regarded by employers as too high, results in the practice of paying workers outside the official payroll, thereby extending the grey area; - an increase in the minimum wage is a threat to businesses, especially to micro-enterprises, which operate on the brink of insolvency and may face bankruptcy; - an increase in the minimum wage raises the cost of labour and makes businesses less competitive. This paper, in its later part, provides arguments against the allegations. There is a one-sided view of the issue of the minimum wage in Poland. Wages are regarded exclusively as an element of the cost of labour and, as such, they should not increase as this is detrimental to entrepreneurs and to the economy. Such analyses disregard the social and economic (in a broad context) aspects of having a minimum wage.

9

A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective

80%

Wang X., Xu Z., Wang X., Skare M.

Oeconomia Copernicana

|

2022

|

vol. 13

|

issue 3

595-631

EN

Research background: Inflation has always been the core issue of economic research and there are many academic research achievements in this field. In recent years, global inflation has intensified, and many scholars focus on research in this field again, providing certain reference value for countries around the world to formulate corresponding macro policies. Purpose of the article: The five-year impact factors are used as the evaluation criteria in this paper, and 1,637 high-quality documents on inflation from 1906 to 2022 are collected from the Web of Science Core Collection database. Using bibliometrics, a comprehensive review of influential literature in the field of inflation is conducted to reveal the evolution and trends of the field. Methods: First, we focus on these high-quality documents about the descriptive statistical characteristics, high cited documents and high impact factor journals. Then, based on the visualization tool, the cooperative network of countries/regions, authors and institutions is depicted and the cooperative relationship between them is determined. At the same time, the most influential countries/regions, authors and institutions are identified by analyzing the citation structure. In addition, through thematic and keyword analysis, the topic hotspots and future research trends of high-quality literature in the field of inflation are deduced. Findings & value added: On the whole, the research on inflation in the United States is relatively mature, and has produced a large number of influential academic cooperation results. Finally, we have a series of discussions on the history of inflation in the United States and policy suggestions. In the future, governments of various countries, especially the United States, will still face certain challenges in how to formulate policies and measures to mitigate the impact of inflation.

10

ACCESSION TO THE EUROZONE AS LITHUANIA’S EXIT STRATEGY FROM THE CURRENCY BOARD SYSTEM

80%

Żuchowska D.

Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy

|

2015

|

vol. 10

|

issue 3

27-43

EN

In the years 2004-2014 the Lithuania’s exchange rate policy was based on a rigid currency board system. After a period of uncontested success in the fight against inflation in the first decade of the transition and economic growth, entering the ERM II in 2004 and efforts to adopt the euro were treated as an optimal exit strategy from the currency board system. However, the consequences of this exchange rate system in the following years (until 2014) prevented Lithuania from meeting the economic convergence criteria. The starting point for the research is based on the theoretical analysis of literature studying benefits and risks associated with the use of the currency board system by the monetary authorities. The empirical analysis refers to the case of Lithuania and covers the years 2004-2014. The purpose of this analysis is to look at the effects of the use of the currency board system from the perspective of the convergence criteria of monetary nature and the extent of their implementation in the absence of opportunities for autonomous monetary policy.

11

Inflation in a virtual economy – a real or virtual threat?

80%

Maciejasz-Świątkiewicz M., Musiał M.

Nauki o Finansach

|

2014

|

issue 4(21)

42-51

EN

The aim of the paper is an analysis of the way and circumstances under which inflation can occur in a virtual economy. It is also an attempt to answer the question whether, and in what way virtual inflation may be related to inflation in the real economy. The article is conceptual, because in the present state of statistical data the effects of virtual economies are not carried out, or are generated in a very small number, which makes it impossible to make reliable calculations.

12

Public debt, money and consumer prices: a vector error correction model for Germany

80%

Nastansky A., Strohe H. G.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

|

2015

|

issue 1 (47)

9-31

EN

In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the mutual impulse response. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again a focus onto the consequences of government debt in combination with an expansionary monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to higher inflation rates if the money supply is expansionary. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in the total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, have caused fears of inflating government debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables: public debt, consumer price index, money stock m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model. In the empirical part of this article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 to 2014 are to be examined.

13

Potencjalne ryzyka związane z przystąpieniem do strefy euro – doświadczenia państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

80%

Sawulski J.

Studia BAS

|

2019

|

issue 3(59)

115-129

EN

This article discusses experience of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries which have adopted the euro. The emphasis is placed on three phenomena: an increase in inflation, a decline in competitiveness and a greater volatility of the economic growth. As the analysis shows, there was no effect of price increase due to currency conversion in all CEE countries, as well as neither loss of competitiveness nor decrease in foreign trade balance has been proved. However, CEE countries that adopted the euro experienced greater fluctuations of economic growth – both the minimum and maximum GDP growth rate was relatively high in comparison to CEE countries which kept their currencies.

14

ZWIĄZEK MIĘDZY BEZROBOCIEM A INFLACJĄ W POLSCE NA TLE KRZYWEJ PHILLIPSA

71%

Mańkowski M., Ostrowski A., Włodarczyk R. W.

Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny

|

2012

|

vol. 74

|

issue 2

141-159

EN

The theoretical part of the paper presents the evolution of the views on Phillips curve. The model of 1958 has been described and its further developments proposed by a number of economists, including P. Samuelson, R. Solow, M. Friedman, E. Phelps, R. Lucas, E. Kydland, and E. Prescott, have been discussed, followed by a general review of the international literature pertaining to the empirical examination of the Phillips curve. The goal of the empirical part is to examine the existence of Phillips curve in Polish economy in 1990-2010. The direction and ties between the inflation rate and employment rate has been analysed based on monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual data. The minimal square model and the error correction model were used in the analysis. It has been found that not even the effect of Phillips curve occurred in Poland during the world financial crisis. Only between the first quarter of 1992 and the third quarter of 1994 and between the first quarter of 1999 and the first quarter of 2005, and several sub-periods, the model could have been built by error.

PL

W części teoretycznej artykułu przedstawiono ewolucję poglądów na temat krzywej Phillipsa. Przybliżono model A. W. Phillipsa z 1958 r., a także liczne rozwinięcia tego modelu autorstwa takich ekonomistów, jak: P. Samuelson, R. Solow, M. Friedman, E. Phelps, R. Lucas, E. Kydland i E. Prescott. Wprowadzenie teoretyczne dopełnia przegląd dotychczasowego dorobku literatury światowej z zakresu weryfikacji empirycznej krzywej Phillipsa. Celem części empirycznej niniejszej pracy jest zbadanie istnienia krzywej Phillipsa w gospodarce polskiej w latach 1990-2010. Sprawdzono kierunek i siłę związku stóp inflacji i bezrobocia na podstawie danych miesięcznych, kwartalnych, półrocznych i rocznych. W badaniach wykorzystano metodę najmniejszych kwadratów (MNK) oraz model korekty błędem (ECM). Stwierdzono, że w okresie światowego kryzysu finansowego nie wystąpił nawet efekt samej krzywej Phillipsa. Jedynie w okresach I kwartał 1992 r. – III kwartał 1994 r. i I kwartał 1999 r. – I kwartał 2005 r. oraz w kilku ich podokresach możliwe było zbudowanie modelu korekty błędem.

15

Reflections on the Balcerowicz Plan

70%

Garland E.

Zeszyty Naukowe PWSZ w Płocku. Nauki Ekonomiczne

|

2015

|

vol. 1(21)

227-244

EN

This article looks at the Balcerowicz Plan, which was undertaken in Poland between the years 1989 to 1995. It is entitled so because Leszek Balcerowicz was the man who was responsible for overseeing Polish transition from a state planned economy to free market one. The Plan was based on the Washington Consensus theory, put forth by Williamson with assistance from Sachs and Lipton. It was a rudimentary model of how transition should be followed. The article looks at different aspects of the plan, which are the following. First of all, price liberalisation and the freeing of domestic trade. Secondly, fiscal responsibility which means the balancing of the national budget. Then it covers restrictive monetary policy used to control inflation and improve Polish competitiveness. This is followed by income policy aimed at inflation, done through a weak indexation of nominal wage. The next section deals with foreign trade liberalisation and the impact of importation of western goods on the Polish market. Also the role of privatisation, done late in comparison to other transition economies. Furthemore, changes in banking, financial and tax reform are also analysed. Lastly, the changes of the social safety net system which were adopted, rather poorly and unfairly, is compared to western models. The work uses the view and theories of different authors both from Europe and abroad. Such economists as Boyko, S. Gomułka, Zukrowska and Balcerowicz himself from Poland. As well as foreigners such as Lipton, Sachs, Hunter, Lavigne, A. Smith Williamson and most importantly Kornai.

16

Klasyfikacja efektu Cantillona

70%

Sieroń A.

Ekonomia. Wrocław Economic Review

|

2015

|

vol. 21

|

issue 4

17-41

EN

The aim of this the paper is to classify different channels through which new money may enter the national economy. We will identify and describe the differences that occur depending on the way in which the new money supply increases, and their importance to the economy and the business cycle. The literature of the theory of money and inflation lacks the classification of the first-round effect. The Cantillon’s analysis conducted in the eighteenth century offers the most comprehensive systematization so far. Therefore, the paper attempts to fill this gap. The research will be theoretical, but presented considerations will be illustrated by the relevant data. Based on the analysis, we conclude that the Cantillon effect entails significant economic consequences. The article also shows that what matters for the economy is not a mere increase in the money supply, but also a method of monetary inflation.

17

THE FORMS OF ORGANIZED CRIME AFTER THE CHANGE OF REGIME IN HUNGARY

70%

Bezsenyi T.

Ante Portas – Studia nad Bezpieczeństwem

|

2016

|

vol. 1(6) Kryzys ukraiński i jego znaczenie dla bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego: aspekty militarno-polityczne

389-401

EN

In recent years the Hungarian administration of justice trialed some of the most famous murder cases of the 1990’s which were contract killings between organized crime groups. These trials brought up many new information about the life of organized crime gangs and given a better opportunity to criminologists to understand the recent activity of the organized crime gangs. I’m focusing on how organized crime successfully survived the crisis of the regime change. The following research is based on a tight cooperation with the Pest County Police Headquarters where I analyzed criminal files about organized crime gangs after the regime change. The main question of the research was: what sociological and economical factors contributed to the strengthening of organized crime in Hungary? Where can we discover the responsibility of the state? How did state regulation affect organized crime?

18

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the Central and Eastern European Countries

70%

Shevchuk V.

Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia

|

2020

|

issue 2(23)

51-68

EN

Objective: The aim of this study is to examine monetary policy transmission mechanisms in four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania), in the presence of fiscal and exchange rate effects. Research Design & Methods: We implement a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach for modelling the interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies, output gap and consumer price inflation (CPI). In our six-variable model, which includes the budget balance, the output gap, CPI, the central bank reference rate, the lending rate and the real exchange rate (RER), short-run restrictions on the contemporaneous structural parameters imply that the budget balance responds to changes in the output gap and lending rate, while the central bank reference rate is a function of output and inflationary shocks. Findings: The results of our research show that the effects of an increase in the central bank’s short-run interest rate on inflation, output gap and the RER are quite heterogeneous across the CEE countries. As the monetary policy response to inflation seems to be significant and rather uniform across countries, though with a different time pattern, there is no evidence of its reaction to the output gap (except for Romania in the long run). Among other results, budget surplus has a strong anti-inflationary impact in all countries but at the expense of a short-lived output slowdown (except for Hungary). The RER undervaluation is likely to stimulate output (Romania) or depress it (Poland), with a neutral stance in the two other countries. As expected, an increase in the lending rate is followed by a fall in output on impact, while there is no significant effect on inflation. Implications/Recommendations: Our study argues in favour of a much stronger response of the central bank reference rate to the output gap in the CEE countries. As suggested by the experience of Poland, an immediate response of the central bank to inflation could explain the lack of the price puzzle when an increase in the reference rate is associated with a sustained increase in consumer prices. An anti-inflationary monetary policy stance should be strengthened by fiscal tightening, while in a recession a higher budget deficit is likely to boost output and prevent a deflationary spiral. Contribution: The article presents the application of the extended IS-MP-IA model to the modelling of monetary policies by the central banks of the CEE countries that practice a floating exchange rate regime.

19

Oil price shocks and the US economy: What makes the latest oil price episode different?

70%

Gadea M. D., Gomez-Loscos A.

International Economics Letters

|

2014

|

vol. 3

|

issue 2

36-44

EN

This paper distinguishes different periods in the relationship between oil price shocks, economic growth, and inflation for the US economy. Focusing on the latest period, covering mainly the noughties, a change is found in the exogeneity pattern associated with recent oil price episodes. A significant effect of GDP growth on oil price movements is identified, while there is no evidence of any influence of the latter on either GDP growth or inflation found.

20

Determinants of Currency Substitution in Southeast European Countries / Determinante Valutne Supstitucije U Zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope

70%

Pepić M., Marinković S., Radović O., Malović M.

Economic Themes

|

2015

|

vol. 53

|

issue 2

162-184

EN

Currency substitution is widespread in less developed countries. Since it increases financial vulnerability and limits the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is often in the focus of scientists and experts. In this paper, we analyze the importance of euroization determinants in Serbia and neighboring countries - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Romania and Croatia for the period 2003-2014. We examine the impact of domestic inflation, nominal exchange rate of the domestic currency against the euro, interest rate spread on domestic and foreign currency, foreign currency inflow in the form of foreign direct investments and exports, as well as the euroization of banks’financial resources on the degree of loan euroization. The results obtained by multiple regression panel methods confirm the statistical significance and assumed direction of the influence of all analyzed variables except inflation and current account balance.

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